moneypitmike Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: First Call: https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/01/high-impact-winter-storm-on-sunday.html Final live from GTG on Saturday. I see blizzard potential with some n stream trends, but not ready to go there yet. Thanks for the write-up, Ray. Do you have a separate accumulation band in the north (where you just show snow) or are they captured in the 8-14"? Good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: 1.50-2.00" of WCB QPF seems a bit excessive. Get those totals inside of 48hr and maybe I'll start buying it. Ditto that with the ratios. If we get consensus for good lift for a prolonged period in the DGZ then maybe I'll entertain something more than 12:1 for the event total. But in those euro 850-700mb max T in the profile maps Ray posted it even gets up to around -3C up here. So the mid-latter portion of the system will probably have lousier growth. We'll see over the next couple days though. Maybe this will be the exception to the rule. Historically high precip events. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 The big key to watch is the srn vort down south and what happens to the lobe coming in over the Great Lakes. If that is slower or far enough west that will help bring that north a tad. If it’s more disjointed and separated, then the wave will be flatter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: First Call: https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/01/high-impact-winter-storm-on-sunday.html Final live from GTG on Saturday. I see blizzard potential with some n stream trends, but not ready to go there yet. Very reasonable and knowledgeably cautious. Good warm up event for the next 8 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 End of the run, But heading towards a crushing................ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 That’s a nice dump! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Low goes over ACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Probably hangback snows if one extrapolated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just how we like it, Ack into the GOM, Crush job enroute. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Huge thermal packing with the 850mb warm front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Not bad. Few tics more southeast and boom. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: Probably hangback snows if one extrapolated. Yeah that's turning into anafront at the end...prob a nice leaf of moisture would explode up from the south as the midlevel cold front passed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: Just how we like it, Ack into the GOM, Crush job enroute. Except James and I 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 The Green Mountains...and White Mountains get destroyed. If anyone pulls of 20''+ it will be there. They dump like 4''/HR I bet if you take the NAM at face value Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Icy for the south coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rnaude241 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, #NoPoles said: Except James and I Ditto 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 I only start to take the NAM seriously at 48 Hours before go time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 I'll say one thing, The radar won't look like shit on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwiz Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 The NAM even gets some decent 180mb CAPE into coastal CT. Thunder-freezing rain? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 NAM drops over 1" of liquid here while I sit in the single digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, weatherwiz said: The NAM even gets some decent 180mb CAPE into coastal CT. Thunder-freezing rain? Cantore will be here for this event 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 I see that the backside shortwave in the eastern US trough is becoming better defined from prior runs, maybe it is just getting into our time frame that matters, but that shortwave could induce another coastal low or frontal low/coastal wave on the front as it looks to stall a bit as energy reinvigorates the frontal boundary as it sits off the coast. At least this is what the 00z NAM shows me right now, again I would like to see other guidance show this first before I gain confidence in it, given that the NAM is in the 84-hour range right now, not exactly its focused hot spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, dendrite said: NAM drops over 1" of liquid here while I sit in the single digits. All you will have to do is sneez and youll clear a path to the chicken coop 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, dendrite said: NAM drops over 1" of liquid here while I sit in the single digits. *Rain Cancel*, Looks like 4°F here when it starts...............lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tiger_deF Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Hey everyone, I'm a weather enthusiast and just joined this forum, This storm looks to be characterized more by high QPF amounts versus deep pressures and wind. Which areas do you think will receive the highest QPF entirely in the form of snow? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, tiger_deF said: Hey everyone, I'm a weather enthusiast and just joined this forum, This storm looks to be characterized more by high QPF amounts versus deep pressures and wind. Which areas do you think will receive the highest QPF entirely in the form of snow? Dont know yet...ask again on Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 15 minutes ago, weathafella said: Low goes over ACK. I love me some island tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, moneypitmike said: I love me some island tracks. I don’t think you want that with this guy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, tiger_deF said: Hey everyone, I'm a weather enthusiast and just joined this forum, This storm looks to be characterized more by high QPF amounts versus deep pressures and wind. Which areas do you think will receive the highest QPF entirely in the form of snow? Nice to meet you and welcome aboard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, tiger_deF said: Hey everyone, I'm a weather enthusiast and just joined this forum, This storm looks to be characterized more by high QPF amounts versus deep pressures and wind. Which areas do you think will receive the highest QPF entirely in the form of snow? Welcome to the board. You came at a great time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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