powderfreak Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, CT Rain said: Watch this whole thing miss. Congrats DC? It would be hilarious after tracking it since day 9 like rabbit dogs going after a squirrel. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, Sn0waddict said: It went back to an inland solution at 18z last night. Right before the other models trended away from that. not 0Z was back inline.. you know I'm kidding right but you can't deny it has been OK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 9 minutes ago, CT Rain said: How about the Euro with a -1F 2m temp at 18z Monday. Yeah anyone in their right mind is really buckin' for a systemic grid failure do to a catastrophic ice storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Big time SSS at the end. What in the Sam Hell is SSS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, Ginx snewx said: What in the Sam Hell is SSS Scooter Shit Streak... get with the program Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 ICON looks a litle colder for the Friday system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, Ginx snewx said: What in the Sam Hell is SSS Some shit solution? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah anyone in their right mind is really buckin' for a systemic grid failure do to a catastrophic ice storm And that’s the point..... Those in the ‘wrong’ mind need psychiatric assistance immediately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Nobody wants ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said: Scooter Shit Streak... get with the program Oh the confluence is actually less on this NAM run versus the last 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JBinStoughton Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Take a look at 06z run...that was much flatter even....I wouldn't be surprised though at another tick south on globals. Tick tick. Come on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 https://g.co/kgs/58vxve Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16, 2019 Author Share Posted January 16, 2019 31 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Definitely a juicy system, though I'm a bit skeptical of 2"+ for QPF right now north of the low level warm front. But we've got big time gulf moisture fetch...like basically the entire length of the gulf. So this won't be the type of SWFE that is mostly N stream and gives 0.60-0.70" of QPF...I'd def expect more. We're also riding the WCB longer than a typical SWFE. More like 12-15 hours instead of 6-8 hours. I expect some wobbles in track...not locking this, as I could see a bit more amped solutions and a cut in QPF as we get closer. But this general idea is the outcome to expect imo. Haven't done a first call...will tonight. But thinking 6-10" N of pike, 4-8" down to I 84, and less south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Suppression won’t happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, CoastalWx said: Suppression won’t happen. Neither will congrats DC, some drunk posting going on, cuz DC does so well with this look Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Some should be more weary of this ticking back NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, dryslot said: Some should be more weary of this ticking back NW. I'm kind of expecting the classic "latent heat" north tick inside the final 36-48 hours....once the models see all the convection in the warm sector down in the southeast to pump the heights up. That seems to happen a lot. Tons of resistance though with this arctic airmass. Good battle which also why the QPF is impressive....very rich gulf moisture being thrown into arctic air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 12 minutes ago, powderfreak said: It would be hilarious after tracking it since day 9 like rabbit dogs going after a squirrel. I'm no expert but wouldn't rabbit dogs chase rabbits? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Oh the confluence is actually less on this NAM run versus the last 4 My b I was comparing to GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 16, 2019 Author Share Posted January 16, 2019 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Suppression won’t happen. Agree... this is about the nadir of the suppressed trend. I would expect a tick n concurrent with slight QPF trim around hours hr48-36 to commence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: Some should be more weary of this ticking back NW. Or wary... I am thinking the big dogs more or less hold serve, but I have been dumbfounded before. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 16 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Watch this whole thing miss. Congrats DC? The thought crossed my mind last night as the globals shifted so far south in one run.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I'm kind of expecting the classic "latent heat" north tick inside the final 36-48 hours....once the models see all the convection in the warm sector down in the southeast to pump the heights up. That seems to happen a lot. Tons of resistance though with this arctic airmass. Good battle which also why the QPF is impressive....very rich gulf moisture being thrown into arctic air. You think sleet or zr is the predominant Ptype based on this synopsis? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I'm kind of expecting the classic "latent heat" north tick inside the final 36-48 hours....once the models see all the convection in the warm sector down in the southeast to pump the heights up. That seems to happen a lot. Tons of resistance though with this arctic airmass. Good battle which also why the QPF is impressive....very rich gulf moisture being thrown into arctic air. That's why for some here, Its more critical to get a couple more tics SE, I'd like to be right in that battle line zone which i believe will be away from the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Agree... this is about the nadir of the suppressed trend. I would expect a tick n concurrent with slight QPF trim around hours hr48-36 to commence. Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tiktock Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 23 minutes ago, CT Rain said: How about the Euro with a -1F 2m temp at 18z Monday. UGH I love and need snow but also want my diesal tractor with its snowblower to start, as well. Super low temps plus diesel=frustration. Should have installed that block heater but how often are we clearing plowable snow at single digit or below temps? Never! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I'm kind of expecting the classic "latent heat" north tick inside the final 36-48 hours....once the models see all the convection in the warm sector down in the southeast to pump the heights up. That seems to happen a lot. Tons of resistance though with this arctic airmass. Good battle which also why the QPF is impressive....very rich gulf moisture being thrown into arctic air. but keep in mind... if compression starts turning the trough rotation more positive, that will cut QPF realization - it's just one of a myriad of possibilities still out there - Plus, I've seen these open wavy ludicrous flow systems tend to move in and out quicker than modeled, so in-storm correction/now-cast may prove that as QPF total limitation to some degree as well... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: You think sleet or zr is the predominant Ptype based on this synopsis? Not sure if it will be the dominating ptype...I'm expecting a lot of SNE to get a good thump of snow on the front end. But there's definitely not a huge gap between that and a lot more ZR. I still in my gut think more IP than ZR if we flip over....the airmass is frigid. Gonna need to really torch aloft to get ZR. +3C warm layer isn't gonna get the job done in this setup i don't think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Don't want to interrupt the party but if you are going to the get together at Funky Murphy's in Worcester 1 Pm Saturday please add your name or remove it. I would like to call them to reserve the backroom and need a count. Carry on 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: but keep in mind... if compression starts turning the trough rotation more positive, that will cut QPF realization - it's just one of a myriad of possibilities still out there - Plus, I've seen these open wavy ludicrous flow systems tend to move in and out quicker than modeled, so in-storm correction/now-cast may prove that as QPF total limitation to some degree as well... Good, So now we can go from being 87 hrs out to 84.................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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