CT Rain Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, ORH_wxman said: GFS with 40s in ORH....lol. My god...that model. FWIW the surface low is farther northwest from 18z. Would be an odd surface low track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 So much for the high not allowing the low to penetrate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 6 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Probably getting a lot of snow in low levels. Who knows, probably some dendrite production with sleet from above lol OT, but these time-height plots really show what you were talking about with the cold shot centered in the low levels. There wouldn't be much mixing above 925 if that verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Whoops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 While the chickens sleep, Brian into the plots real deep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 gfs keep moving that freezing rain line north also, so something to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 It’s overdone but something is being sampled that is making all guidance amped more and more today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Well that's all I need to see for tonight. I'll let my misery continue with the 06z. Enjoy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 5 minutes ago, CT Rain said: FWIW the surface low is farther northwest from 18z. Would be an odd surface low track. I'm giving precisely zero weight to the GFS sfc track and the low level temps. We'll see soon enough if I'm wrong, but this will go down as one its worst performances in years IMHO. This might be worse than 2008 when it had a crappier resolution...at least in 2008, it kept ORH around 40F. It's actually tickling 50F at 42 hours there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Ray better wear a helmet and a jockstrap tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It’s overdone but something is being sampled that is making all guidance amped more and more today. Stay the course and wait for the euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It’s overdone but something is being sampled that is making all guidance amped more and more today. The damming sucks because I think the high is too far west. At least the core of it. We’ve seen winds down here for LGA go from 050-070 during the storm to 080-100. So there is basically no CAD signature at all anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 A MET not to be named might have to give his degree to Greg. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
geo1 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: gfs keep moving that freezing rain line north also, so something to watch. What’s the chances that we get a ice storm up here? Rather than what has been touted snow to sleet with minimal ZR? I have people working late tomorrow night 1 AM and I don’t want them to be sliding off roads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 So much for that arctic high keeping things frozen. Models just keep tick, tick, ticking warmer. How about that Rgem too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 And we're using the GFS why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: I'm giving precisely zero weight to the GFS sfc track and the low level temps. We'll see soon enough if I'm wrong, but this will go down as one its worst performances in years IMHO. This might be worse than 2008 when it had a crappier resolution...at least in 2008, it kept ORH around 40F. It's actually tickling 50F at 42 hours there. I expect the GFS to never catch onto it. It'll play catch-up right until then end. I mean most of the models do anyway even in in-situ events up here. The sfc cold almost always overperforms north of the warm front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I'm giving precisely zero weight to the GFS sfc track and the low level temps. We'll see soon enough if I'm wrong, but this will go down as one its worst performances in years IMHO. This might be worse than 2008 when it had a crappier resolution...at least in 2008, it kept ORH around 40F. It's actually tickling 50F at 42 hours there. Are you saying I shouldn't believe the 33* surface temp it's giving me at 7:00a.m. on Sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 5 minutes ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: It’s overdone but something is being sampled that is making all guidance amped more and more today. Worst words to hear today, amped and NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 In trying to analyze if this arctic boundary is trying to jilt us ... if it's backing off in subtle amounts it might account for this warming profile. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, dryslot said: And we're using the GFS why? If it's correct it will probably make for a solid Will melt job. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 those that Mitch guy post here? Mitch @VermonsterWx 10m 00z GFS is flat out wrong with this depiction IMO. 2 meter temperatures on this model are total garbage. There's positively NO way that it rains up to the northern border of MA with so much low level cold. Sleet maybe with freezing rain south of the Mass Pike Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 how do I get rid of that annoying image..?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, dendrite said: I expect the GFS to never catch onto it. It'll play catch-up right until then end. I mean most of the models do anyway even in in-situ events up here. The sfc cold almost always overperforms north of the warm front. Even much colder models like the NAM put ORH at like 22/5 before the precip moves in, and then just a few hours later by 06z they are 25F and then are 30F by 09z....really hard to believe. Where did the single digit dewpoints go? They didn't go into wetbulbing apparently....lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, dendrite said: If it's correct it will probably make for a solid Will melt job. I have CRS disease, But if he had one, I bet i wouldn't forget it.............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Harvey hedging Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Mike Wankum saying FU Will.. GFS rocks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 5 minutes ago, Bostonseminole said: A MET not to be named might have to give his degree to Greg. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 to 4 in Boston. Damn! Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Canadian also warmed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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