Damage In Tolland Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, Typhoon Tip said: Pretty funny as a spectator watching Kevin fight tooth and nail against anything but sleet - please oh god not that. Ice? Yes. Snow? Yes. Sleet? F u the world sucks. What happens? Next model comes out even more terrifyingly sleety I’ll be fine with 6-8 then 2-3 of sleet. Based on everything north and the way warm tongues are always north of progs.. I think that’s noteworthy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Coop Collapser. In Kuch we trust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 4 minutes ago, CT Rain said: What do you make of the warmer tick at 2m on the hires stuff, Will? Sort of surprised to see as much rain as I do now even up to HFD on NAM/RPM. Yeah not sure....I don't see any real good reason for it. This thing should be tapping arctic dews...esp draining right down the CT valley there. My only guess is that with the slightly warmer mid-levels, the models may be overplaying the latent heat angle more....trying to warm the BL way too much with the refreezing of sleet pellets and then eventually near sfc with ZR. But with fresh dew source up north, I don't see a good reason to believe them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 5 minutes ago, moneypitmike said: Those totals ramp up pretty quickly over a few miles in SNE. I'll take my 14" and run. Are you at Pit 1,2 or 3? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, dendrite said: Coop Collapser. In Kuch we trust. Amazing how consistent that has been for a week now. The only movement in this storm has been in SNE , CNNE have not moved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 This is the warmest I see on pivotal along 84 in WCT: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah not sure....I don't see any real good reason for it. This thing should be tapping arctic dews...esp draining right down the CT valley there. My only guess is that with the slightly warmer mid-levels, the models may be overplaying the latent heat angle more....trying to warm the BL way too much with the refreezing of sleet pellets and then eventually near sfc with ZR. But with fresh dew source up north, I don't see a good reason to believe them. RPM has some ugly ZR totals in S ORH Co and also around Waterbury CT. Pretty much I-84 corridor whole way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Stands to reason ... resolution in the low levels makes thermodynamic handling reasonably questionable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Here's probably a more accurate clown map (though prob a little too light near coast). Yeah, 18" is in trouble there I think on most guidance....but I'd expect you'll crack double digits pretty easily For a broadstrokes forecast for the VT ski areas, this is what I had this morning. Looks awfully similar to that map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 RGEM brings the surface low right over central CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Amazing how consistent that has been for a week now. The only movement in this storm has been in SNE , CNNE have not moved. “All downhill from here” fail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Amazing how consistent that has been for a week now. The only movement in this storm has been in SNE , CNNE have not moved. Yeah...I mean I'll take the under on that as I think they overdo it with ratios with inverted temp profiles. Plus there's the riming factor Chris and I talked about earlier which will increase the density of the crystals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 12-18", Locked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 6 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: Are you at Pit 1,2 or 3? I'm at Pit1, wishing that PF had seen fit to draw his 12-18" line 10 miles further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 4 minutes ago, CT Rain said: RPM has some ugly ZR totals in S ORH Co and also around Waterbury CT. Pretty much I-84 corridor whole way. Congrats Kevin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, CT Rain said: RGEM brings the surface low right over central CT. Right over ORH...lol Tossed. Still a bit out of RGEM range there by 42-48 hours. It's still hammering my 'hood on the front end though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, moneypitmike said: I'm at Pit1, wishing that PF had seen fit to draw his 12-18" line 10 miles further south. Pit 3 in Worcester should do ok too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, DavisStraight said: Pit 3 in Worcester should do ok too. And Pit 4 will jack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: That is insane. That thermal gradient is crazy. Worth saving that one to the weenie folder. JFC...check this one out for PWM. +2C at 825 and -18C at 925. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Fast mover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, dendrite said: JFC...check this one out for PWM. +2C at 825 and -18C at 925. Probably getting a lot of snow in low levels. Who knows, probably some dendrite production with sleet from above lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 I'm going to go out on a limb and say that sounding at PWM doesn't happen, lol.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 GFS is going to be a furnace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 GFS looks like a furnace. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 stronger on the GFS 996 over WVA or whatever states are down there.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, CT Rain said: GFS is going to be a furnace. Just now, moneypitmike said: GFS looks like a furnace. Jinx....owe me a coke. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 4 minutes ago, CT Rain said: Probably getting a lot of snow in low levels. Who knows, probably some dendrite production with sleet from above lol Funny you said that. I was thinking this could be low visibility sleet because of accompanying heavier plates and needles in that transition axis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 just FYI, GFS has been a furnace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 GFS with 40s in ORH....lol. My god...that model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I'm going to go out on a limb and say that sounding at PWM doesn't happen, lol.... A twig? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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