NYCweatherNOW Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 6 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Drunk? I don't make snow maps You guys want to see my snow maps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, NYCweatherNOW said: You guys want to see my snow maps? Only if you make them in mspaint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, NYCweatherNOW said: You guys want to see my snow maps? Why not after all this is supposed to be a place where ideas are shared by pros and hobbyists not dominated by the elitism some show. As long as you give scientific reasoning no one should shame you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, dendrite said: Only if you make them in mspaint. I miss Lillo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I’ve been telling coworkers and friends to expect 8-12” in my area, but possibly a little more...details tbd I don't know what to expect here. I like 10-18" for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, Ginx snewx said: I miss Lillo For this one, It would have a very "Erect" look to it i would say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, WxBlue said: I don't know what to expect here. I like 10-18" for now. I told my mom 8-14” for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, WxBlue said: I don't know what to expect here. I like 10-18" for now. I'm thinking about the same depending on final track, Low side if its more NW, High side if we get another tic or so SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: I'm thinking about the same depending on final track, Low side if its more NW, High side if we get another tic or so SE. 3 minutes ago, dendrite said: I told my mom 8-14” for now. Sounds reasonable. Maybe I'll compromise and go with 8-16" when chatting with co-workers tomorrow. That's a good starting point at least, depending on how far the sleet line make it northward on models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 8 minutes ago, dryslot said: For this one, It would have a very "Erect" look to it i would say. Definitely not flaccid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
butterfish55 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Be ready to up amounts for SE mass away from immediate ocean esp w another tick se Raynham jackpot obviously Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 First Call: https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/01/high-impact-winter-storm-on-sunday.html Final live from GTG on Saturday. I see blizzard potential with some n stream trends, but not ready to go there yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Oy the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 The 00z Nam won't be flat on this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxBlue Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, WthrJunkyME said: Lots of snow cream for you! THANK YOU. This is such a great idea to make while watching my Rams in NFC Championship game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: First Call: https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/01/high-impact-winter-storm-on-sunday.html Final at Live from GTG on Saturday. I see blizzard potential with some n stream trends, but not ready to go there yet. Nice map I wish you well. Seems early to pin down amounts. Everyone here is downplaying qpf, why? I haven't heard any scientific reasoning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 A lot of amped members of the GEFS mean in the 12z run today. One was so amped, it closed off an H5 low east of Cape Cod. That is still a possibility it will prolong the backend snow chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 I think 3-6" is a good call for Cape Cod and the South Shore of Massachusetts to southern RI and southern CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Actually, the pv press over is is SLIGHTLY more on NAM. Not sure if therrrs going to be much difference vs 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, USCAPEWEATHERAF said: I think 3-6" is a good call for Cape Cod and the South Shore of Massachusetts to southern RI and southern CT. I can see something like that happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, weathafella said: Actually, the pv press over is is SLIGHTLY more on NAM. Not sure if therrrs going to be much difference vs 18z. Yeah the southern stream is definitely digging more into Texas this run, the northern stream isn't digging southward yet at hour 54 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Now getting to later panels seems nearly identical to prior run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Nice map I wish you well. Seems early to pin down amounts. Everyone here is downplaying qpf, why? I haven't heard any scientific reasoning 1.50-2.00" of WCB QPF seems a bit excessive. Get those totals inside of 48hr and maybe I'll start buying it. Ditto that with the ratios. If we get consensus for good lift for a prolonged period in the DGZ then maybe I'll entertain something more than 12:1 for the event total. But in those euro 850-700mb max T in the profile maps Ray posted it even gets up to around -3C up here. So the mid-latter portion of the system will probably have lousier growth. We'll see over the next couple days though. Maybe this will be the exception to the rule. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 S/w pretty amped down south this is going to be NW of the 18z run, 4mb stronger then the 18z run at hr 72 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 This will def be NW of 18z run....18z run was really suppressed though, so we're starting from a low bar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 15 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: First Call: https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/01/high-impact-winter-storm-on-sunday.html Final live from GTG on Saturday. I see blizzard potential with some n stream trends, but not ready to go there yet. Thanks for the write-up, Ray. Do you have a separate accumulation band in the north (where you just show snow) or are they captured in the 8-14"? Good luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, dendrite said: 1.50-2.00" of WCB QPF seems a bit excessive. Get those totals inside of 48hr and maybe I'll start buying it. Ditto that with the ratios. If we get consensus for good lift for a prolonged period in the DGZ then maybe I'll entertain something more than 12:1 for the event total. But in those euro 850-700mb max T in the profile maps Ray posted it even gets up to around -3C up here. So the mid-latter portion of the system will probably have lousier growth. We'll see over the next couple days though. Maybe this will be the exception to the rule. Historically high precip events. We will see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 The big key to watch is the srn vort down south and what happens to the lobe coming in over the Great Lakes. If that is slower or far enough west that will help bring that north a tad. If it’s more disjointed and separated, then the wave will be flatter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 17 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: First Call: https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2019/01/high-impact-winter-storm-on-sunday.html Final live from GTG on Saturday. I see blizzard potential with some n stream trends, but not ready to go there yet. Very reasonable and knowledgeably cautious. Good warm up event for the next 8 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 End of the run, But heading towards a crushing................ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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