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HoarfrostHubb

Jan 18 Appetizer

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00z EURO looked further southeast with the surface low, like the NAM was, NAM was a little too far southeast for the 6z run, but showed a powerful storm developing with a strong CCB developing offshore.

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2 hours ago, USCAPEWEATHERAF said:

NAM looks most intense and coldest solution for the system, the GEFS mean and EURO mean look colder and stronger with the surface low.

Nam is crap and way OTS south 

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9 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Beware the thermals per BOX

or ride the weenies 

 

Thermals do not look like an issue away from the coast. Even E coast of MA should be mostly fine north of about GHG for most of it....unless it trends back to more southerly flow.

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The BL is iffy ORH and east as we get into Friday afternoon but I think the majority of the precip falls before that's a problem. I could see Friday afternoon being drizzle and quick road melt but I don't think rain is going to cut into most people's snow. 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Thermals do not look like an issue away from the coast. Even E coast of MA should be mostly fine north of about GHG for most of it....unless it trends back to more southerly flow.

Even on a depiction like 6z gfs with that track , Will?

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24 minutes ago, DomNH said:

The BL is iffy ORH and east as we get into Friday afternoon but I think the majority of the precip falls before that's a problem. I could see Friday afternoon being drizzle and quick road melt but I don't think rain is going to cut into most people's snow. 

Agreed with this

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34 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Even on a depiction like 6z gfs with that track , Will?

Yeah GFS looks like it tracks is just south of most peeps in MA anyway...over SE MA. GFS will also always overdue the BL warming. I'd feel fine 128 and outside...and even into BOS will prob at least get a nice little burst early morning.

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Pretty sad to go 1/2 way thru MET winter and just see your 1st single digits low.  Hit 9F finally this AM.  On to this pesky fella.  Antecedent cold looks solid.  I'm hoping we don't see the primary tend any stronger as it will lead to warming in the BL along the coastal plain.  Sort of hoping for a minor overrunning event here.

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1 minute ago, dryslot said:

.30" qpf, Low 30's, Good luck

Agreed, just not enough moisture to support much over 3".  Maybe a lucky locale will pull 4 if they see good rates and ratios.  I have a feeling this is gonna be one of those "radar looks like crap" storms, too.

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Just now, tunafish said:

Agreed, just not enough moisture to support much over 3".  Maybe a lucky locale will pull 4 if they see good rates and ratios.  I have a feeling this is gonna be one of those "radar looks like crap" storms, too.

Yea, Right now, The ceiling is in that range, Of course if it starts to come in more robust, And we bump up qpf, Then i could see maybe even to 5" but that's a reach at the moment, Kind of keeping one eye on this but won't deny looking past it at the bigger picture..................:lol:

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NAM has consistently been unimpressed with this one for 3-4 cycles...though it's still in clown range for that model.

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