OSUmetstud Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 In DJFM, there's been 25 positive monthly NAOs and 3 negative monthly NAOs from 2011-2012 onward. Its an impressive streak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 26 minutes ago, tamarack said: IIRC, global temps were depressed a bit for almost 2 years after the eruption. Jan. 1994 remains the coldest month on record at CAR and Ft. Kent. the Summer of 1992, if we ever had the winter equivalent of that, people would think the next ice age had arrived. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Obnoxiously maddening....its sucked. But the fact that its been so frustrating, ironically enough, is a sign that there is hope. This isn't one of those awful el nino events....we just haven't had any sensible fruit yet. And again....we are 4 days into the favored period, have had one decent storm, and another possible early next week. Perspective- Our winter thus far is like +1 on temps with obscenely above average precip....definitely some bad breaks happening. This isn't a dry winter or a torch winter at all....you really cannot blame the majority of the result on a bad longwave pattern. We did have periods where it sucked, but overall it hasn't been that bad...prob about middle of the pack. But just like we warned peeps that we could easily get some bad fortune (ala 1980s patterns) when it was snowing....we could easily see the pendulum swing back the other way and get buried...esp since the pattern is mostly favorable looking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Just now, OSUmetstud said: In DJFM, there's been 25 positive monthly NAOs and 3 negative monthly NAOs from 2011-2012 onward. Its an impressive streak. It is, I wonder if anyone has pinned down how long these predominant streaks of whether it's one phase or another typically last and when we'd be due for a flip lol. It seems so variable that there's no regular interval to when the predominant phase changes or what causes it to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Our winter thus far is like +1 on temps with obscenely above average precip....definitely some bad breaks happening. This isn't a dry winter or a torch winter at all....you really cannot blame the majority of the result on a bad longwave pattern. We did have periods where it sucked, but overall it hasn't been that bad...prob about middle of the pack. But just like we warned peeps that we could easily get some bad fortune (ala 1980s patterns) when it was snowing....we could easily see the pendulum swing back the other way and get buried...esp since the pattern is mostly favorable looking. But beyond bad luck Will, it seems to be a very stable pattern of storms hugging or cutting we haven't had a single benchmark track at all. That should be much more than bad luck- the nao not being favorable probably. No matter how cold it is, those kinds of tracks almost never result in all snow scenarios on the coast south of central NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: But beyond bad luck Will, it seems to be a very stable pattern of storms hugging or cutting we haven't had a single benchmark track at all. That should be much more than bad luck- the nao not being favorable probably. You have to take in account our climo has plenty of winter rainers anyway , it’s rarely ever epic for more than 10 days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: You have to take in account our climo has plenty of winter rainers anyway , it’s rarely ever epic for more than 10 days Yeah I would assume that on average a benchmark track happens once or twice a month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 The pack was already down to patches when I left at 6am...fully expecting it to be gone by the time I return. Good riddance too...can finally get a few runs in before the snow returns Sun-Thu. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: But beyond bad luck Will, it seems to be a very stable pattern of storms hugging or cutting we haven't had a single benchmark track at all. That should be much more than bad luck- the nao not being favorable probably. No matter how cold it is, those kinds of tracks almost never result in all snow scenarios on the coast south of central NE. Since the pattern is not optimal, we are at the mercy of timing nucances..IE n stream streaks blocking storms, and SWs amplifying behind departing arctic air masses. Bad luck. Now, if this continues much longer, then that is a missed forecast because I thought it would start to become very favorable around now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Just now, LibertyBell said: But beyond bad luck Will, it seems to be a very stable pattern of storms hugging or cutting we haven't had a single benchmark track at all. That should be much more than bad luck- the nao not being favorable probably. No matter how cold it is, those kinds of tracks almost never result in all snow scenarios on the coast south of central NE. The NAO is part of it....but remember how many benchmark tracks we had without a -NAO in the past few years? So that doesn't explain it if we are talking about the longwave pattern. Most of our misfortune seems to be on a scale lower than the longwave pattern. Sometimes you just can't get things to line up....a scooter streak here, a bad phase there and you get storms that don't work out...a north carolina blizzard, a Washington DC 12 inch sowstorm....or you happen to get a benchmark track on 12/16 this past year and it is mostly rain because you lost your cold at the perfect time. That happens sometimes and givne a long enough sample of winter, you are going to have some streaks where heads comes up 9 times out of 10 just like you will have streaks where tails comes up 9 times out of 10. I don't think people like to hear that very much though because they want a more ironclad explanation for things. They don't like random variance...they want it explained by something physical they can see and understand. I think the easiest way for me to explain the winter is that the longwave pattern hasn't been favorable for a big winter so far, but it does not explain the magnitude of the futility either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: it's too bad, especially since we were supposed to go towards more NAO - winters starting with this season. I don’t think so. We are headed into the cold AMO so it’s likely -NAOs will be rare over the next 25 years. It’s unlikely we will see as long a stretch of +NAO winters as we’ve seen but it’ll probably be positive more often than not as it was in the 70s and 80s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 1 minute ago, SnowGoose69 said: I don’t think so. We are headed into the cold AMO so it’s likely -NAOs will be rare over the next 25 years. It’s unlikely we will see as long a stretch of +NAO winters as we’ve seen but it’ll probably be positive more often than not as it was in the 70s and 80s Theres conflicting data on this generally. It may be true...but we are now going into an 8th straight winter of generally positive nao conditions. This would tend to keep the far north atlantic cooler and weaken a sst tripole. Theres a fairly strong correlation between the amo and the nao. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 53 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Congrats on 8" this month. Currently at 5.65inches, the rain hasnt started yet...be interesting to see where im at once this storm is done...super blustery in Plymouth...gusting at least into the 30s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 The flip to the negative amo in the mid to late 60s was during a very negative nao period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Seems like there has been an absence of decent /normal lake effect snows off Erie / Ontario as well ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OSUmetstud Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Seems like there has been an absence of decent /normal lake effect snows off Erie / Ontario as well ? Yeah...there havent been too many winners in the ne this winter...only northern new england, i think. The lakes should do well in the next couple weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 31 minutes ago, weathafella said: Lol..caribou can’t hold a candle to Boston’s snowiest month. Is your snowpack still holding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Just now, SnoSki14 said: Is your snowpack still holding? It was when I left 3 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 29 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The NAO is part of it....but remember how many benchmark tracks we had without a -NAO in the past few years? So that doesn't explain it if we are talking about the longwave pattern. Most of our misfortune seems to be on a scale lower than the longwave pattern. Sometimes you just can't get things to line up....a scooter streak here, a bad phase there and you get storms that don't work out...a north carolina blizzard, a Washington DC 12 inch sowstorm....or you happen to get a benchmark track on 12/16 this past year and it is mostly rain because you lost your cold at the perfect time. That happens sometimes and givne a long enough sample of winter, you are going to have some streaks where heads comes up 9 times out of 10 just like you will have streaks where tails comes up 9 times out of 10. I don't think people like to hear that very much though because they want a more ironclad explanation for things. They don't like random variance...they want it explained by something physical they can see and understand. I think the easiest way for me to explain the winter is that the longwave pattern hasn't been favorable for a big winter so far, but it does not explain the magnitude of the futility either. so if SG is right in what he said about getting into a longterm + NAO pattern, our winters may become more like the 80s? It's interesting when you need thread the needle scenarios to work out and there are significant snowstorms going both south and north of you lol I wonder if this variability has some sort of long term patterns to it. If you look at NYC winters starting from the 1870s to the 1910s or so, they always averaged 30 inches or more of snow every winter. It was after that that our winters became much more variable and the snowfall averages started to decrease. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 Sometimes positive NAO is recoded but there is blocking. It’s the calculation algorithm that’s used and position of anomalies that has a big influence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Since the pattern is not optimal, we are at the mercy of timing nucances..IE n stream streaks blocking storms, and SWs amplifying behind departing arctic air masses. Bad luck. Now, if this continues much longer, then that is a missed forecast because I thought it would start to become very favorable around now. I still have faith in your forecast because even in el nino winters that didn't turn out so great, February had at least one big storm. If there's one widespread 20"+ event and another significant event around a foot or so you're in business. You can easily get that in February and on top of that you have March. One thing I do like about persistence, is once the pattern flips, it should flip for a prolonged time. You just need that rubber band to snap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 47F. Nice SW breeze Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 It might be silly to say SNE is done...but if someone put a gun to my head id have to say done...obviously i cant predict the future...could we go balls to the wall? Possibly...but, the Pac is unfriendly, there is no blocking, and the gradient winter we have been experiencing so far hasnt changed, even though we had a SSW event. If we get a -NAO im guessing it will establish itself around the same time it did last year...and by that point, im looking to head into spring... And I could be horribly wrong about everything... But going with the pattern and what has transpired, SNE is fighting an uphill battle... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 18 minutes ago, OSUmetstud said: The flip to the negative amo in the mid to late 60s was during a very negative nao period. I saw Don mention some similarities between this winter and 1965-66, if thats the case we can always hope the next one is like 1966-67 lol, that would be backend poetic justice if that were to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 5 minutes ago, #NoPoles said: It might be silly to say SNE is done...but if someone put a gun to my head id have to say done...obviously i cant predict the future...could we go balls to the wall? Possibly...but, the Pac is unfriendly, there is no blocking, and the gradient winter we have been experiencing so far hasnt changed, even though we had a SSW event. If we get a -NAO im guessing it will establish itself around the same time it did last year...and by that point, im looking to head into spring... And I could be horribly wrong about everything... But going with the pattern and what has transpired, SNE is fighting an uphill battle... I mean, basically the SSW wasnt enough to get the job done? We would need a total "Beast" to reshuffle the deck...like maybe Day After Tomorrow, or Dawn Awakening, style Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 There is a psuedo -NAO block showing up in the 12z GFS out to hour 108 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 13 minutes ago, #NoPoles said: It might be silly to say SNE is done...but if someone put a gun to my head id have to say done...obviously i cant predict the future...could we go balls to the wall? Possibly...but, the Pac is unfriendly, there is no blocking, and the gradient winter we have been experiencing so far hasnt changed, even though we had a SSW event. If we get a -NAO im guessing it will establish itself around the same time it did last year...and by that point, im looking to head into spring... And I could be horribly wrong about everything... But going with the pattern and what has transpired, SNE is fighting an uphill battle... What is so bad about the PAC pattern? We have a huge ridge out in the EPO region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: What is so bad about the PAC pattern? We have a huge ridge out in the EPO region. Snowman19 is in a different universe lol, check out some his posts. on the last page he said: The Pacific has refused to cooperate since late November yes. We were spoiled and compensated for the NAO and AO not being favorable the last several winters. Just based on what I’m seeing now, like I said before, the Pacific is looking to become hostile again come week 2 of February. Question is, is it a week of being unfavorable or something more lengthy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 1 minute ago, LibertyBell said: Snowman19 is in a different universe lol, check out some his posts. on the last page he said: The Pacific has refused to cooperate since late November yes. We were spoiled and compensated for the NAO and AO not being favorable the last several winters. Just based on what I’m seeing now, like I said before, the Pacific is looking to become hostile again come week 2 of February. Question is, is it a week of being unfavorable or something more lengthy? Yeah I don't really see it...2015 obviously had this amazing PNA ridge that was almost stagnant for a month in a perfect spot.,..but the EPO ridge out west right now is totally fine...look at how cold it is getting recently in Canada (and even here in New England aside from the cutter today)....we could really use some Atlantic blocking which we don't have. We get some transient ridging at times, but nothing solid. Is the PAC perfect? Nope...we'd love a PNA ridge centered over about Idaho....but it is definitely on the good side of the spectrum. It is pouring arctic cold all into Canada and the CONUS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted January 24, 2019 Share Posted January 24, 2019 1 hour ago, kdxken said: Bob has been dead on this winter. We follow... Dead on with the dead ratter of a winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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