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January 2019 Discussion II


Typhoon Tip

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8 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

I don't want it over BVT.  I see one lobe of the PV pushing thru on Monday.  It's the follow-up lobe that's my one focus.  Heights are beginning to recover after the Monday lobe moves thru and there is a southern stream s/w that is also mucking up the flow.  I'd prefer to the follow up PV lobe just N of say Lake Superior by about 12z Mon/ 00z Tues at the latest to make this more interesting then currently modeled.  Just how I see it right now.

To try and illustrate my thoughts.

500h_anom_na.thumb.png.de1d5cf2f9c1f790514d814104e17876.png

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1 minute ago, powderfreak said:

Core of PV over BTV is like "congrats DC"... now it makes more sense what Bob was saying ha.

I would never want the center of a PV over your ass.  I'm referring to the lobes that are rotating around it.  That's going to be a critical piece to next week without any help from downstream blocking.  Timing is everything.

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3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

My hedge is that it works out....just a guess.

Well you def need it for your outlook. Lol. 

Theres def potential with that one. The northern stream shortwave gets broken in half crossing over western Canada near the Rockies on this euro run.  We either want that to stay intact (if it did, I think we get a Miller B rather than the second broken piece becoming a storm too far west) or the initial PV lobe to settle further southeast giving us a Miller B anyway. 

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2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Well you def need it for your outlook. Lol. 

Theres def potential with that one. The northern stream shortwave gets broken in half crossing over western Canada near the Rockies on this euro run.  We either want that to stay intact (if it did, I think we get a Miller B rather than the second broken piece becoming a storm too far west) or the initial PV lobe to settle further southeast giving us a Miller B anyway. 

What time range does that fracture occur? Guessing the Euro does not have that right.

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

What time range does that fracture occur? Guessing the Euro does not have that right.

Around 96-102 hours. The GFS does it too though it buries the lagging energy so that the focus is on the main northern stream wave. 

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Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Eh....I'd give it 24 hours.

Man, everything that can go wrong, does.

Yeah this one might go wrong too. But there's potential. All you can ask for 6 days out. Still wouldn't totally sleep on Sunday though that energy trended less impressive. 

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5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

That is a TyphoonTip gradient made in heaven. He will love all those height lines packed together. 

579 over MIA, but lots of spokes coming around the PV. He'll be counting those rings, like Tamarack counting the rings of the remains of an Eastern Hemlock downed from the 1998 icestorm.

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