• Member Statistics

    15,694
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    snowmaker
    Newest Member
    snowmaker
    Joined
Sign in to follow this  
Rjay

January 19-20th Winter Storm Threat

Recommended Posts

3 minutes ago, tdp146 said:

Started as all rain here in Seaford. 37. What happened to the rain observation/whine thread? I was all excited to post there. 

I guess we're all here because it does't much matter; it's just us diehards most reasonable people are doing something else.

  • Like 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
4 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Yea I’m surprised it’s raining my west in Nassau county. Moderate snow now and 34

Now it’s a rain/snow mix here.  See how it plays out. Saw your pic. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Think guidance temps including HRRR continue running too warm at the sfc tonight.  "If "a sfc wave forms on the warm front overnight, all bets off on temps rising above freezing Pike and Sussex Counties ne PA/nw NJ through much of se NYS before sunrise.  Current Cold air southward drainage/wet bulbing ALB southward looks to me to be a meso-microscale problem and now that we have snow down,  seems to mer precip conduction will be primary warmup toward sunrise to 32F here. Long ways to go to warm now.  Lets see if the models get back on track and warm it up.  I may not report observed weather on the obs thread again til dawn Sunday. 

  • Like 5

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, wdrag said:

Think guidance temps including HRRR continue running too warm at the sfc tonight.  "If "a sfc wave forms on the warm front overnight, all bets off on temps rising above freezing Pike and Sussex Counties ne PA/nw NJ through much of se NYS before sunrise.  Current Cold air southward drainage/wet bulbing ALB southward looks to me to be a meso-microscale problem and now that we have snow down,  seems to mer precip conduction will be primary warmup toward sunrise to 32F here. Long ways to go to warm now.  Lets see if the models get back on track and warm it up.  I may not report observed weather on the obs thread again til dawn Sunday. 

Yea i'm not buying the surface torch west of the hudson that the models are showing, temps are dropping a lot once you get well inland and usually these events stay mainly frozen NW NJ/SE NY West of the Hudson 

  • Thanks 1

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
Just now, HVSnowLover said:

North Shote of LI always seems to do better than the city in these scenarios

 

Just now, HVSnowLover said:

North Shote of LI always seems to do better than the city in these scenarios

2 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Here’s your line

 

3B2438EE-BF02-4DAF-9729-C654E40A05CD.jpeg

Pretty much the LIE is the divider. That’s a good depiction. Where is it from? 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
5 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Been saying for 2 days that models were too warm at the surface, glad it’s finally verifying.

It seems to depend where, the models seemed to be very accurate for the coast/metro area but were too warm further inland. Not shocked.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
2 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

North Shote of LI always seems to do better than the city in these scenarios

It's just a few miles, but north shore of LI is farther north than the park.  Ranges from same latitude as roughly the Bronx/Westchester line  in Nassau County to that of of Ossining as you go east out on the north fork.  That and being outside of the UHI.

Moderate snow, 32.9 (33) in Smithtown.  I think it was all snow from the start, unless I missed some drizzle which was how I had been expecting it to start.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
8 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Pulled it from another board. Really snowing now. Coating even on paved surfaces. 

Nice. Here too. Now all snow and coating on grass. Frankly I’m surprised. But hey I’ll take it. 

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
7 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said:

It seems to depend where, the models seemed to be very accurate for the coast/metro area but were too warm further inland. Not shocked.

I wasn’t as sure about the immediate coast, turns out the boundary setup right around the city itself.

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites
12 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

It's now mostly a very wet snow in southern Westchester County (near the Long Island Sound). No snow is sticking.

Come on I have a healthy coating in the Bronx and you have no stickage?

Share this post


Link to post
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...
Sign in to follow this  

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    No registered users viewing this page.