SnowGoose69 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said: The southern December storm as well. Even the Friday system the surface low has come north again the last two main model cycles now so that coastal areas look more rainy again. Prior to that it had been flattening for 48-72 hours and for awhile looked like all snow even for Long Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: LOL No arrogance here. If you had some blocking I could see how you could make a case for the primary dying faster, but the warm push aloft is unavoidable IMO. At the same time though everyone will probably snow earlier than currently expected and there will probably be banding features. So often times in a juiced up enough storm the mid level WAA gets somewhat cancelled out by those two factors and you get decent snow in advance anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 26 minutes ago, TriPol said: But with high winds and much of this precip falling quickly, how much ice actually accumulates on exposed power lines and roads? Just because 1.8" of precip falls, doesn't mean it actually accumulates. Of course. But even 1.00” of ice accretion would be very dangerous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, SnowGoose69 said: At the same time though everyone will probably snow earlier than currently expected and there will probably be banding features. So often times in a juiced up enough storm the mid level WAA gets somewhat cancelled out by those two factors and you get decent snow in advance anyway Totally agree, that's why I am so confident in a solid front end dump before any mixing and why I would go 3-6" even in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 9 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Even the Friday system the surface low has come north again the last two main model cycles now so that coastal areas look more rainy again. Prior to that it had been flattening for 48-72 hours and for awhile looked like all snow even for Long Island Very good points. We have seen every storm come north in the last 2 days before so far this winter. If I’m betting, I think the weekend definitely comes more NW in the next couple days. The southern branch disturbance probably strengthens much more than the models show right now given the huge latent heat/convective release from all the Gulf of Mexico moisture and warmth streaming north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 12Z EURO seems to be all Snow, but only 9" here. This is despite all precip. {2"}coming with temps. from 32-10, then going near 0 after storm departs. Why is this not 20" to 30"? I think you have to have a Skew-T to figure this out by examining the mid-levels. Anyone know if this is available on the internet anywhere? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 7 minutes ago, CIK62 said: 12Z EURO seems to be all Snow, but only 9" here. This is despite all precip. {2"}coming with temps. from 32-10, then going near 0 after storm departs. Why is this not 20" to 30"? I think you have to have a Skew-T to figure this out by examining the mid-levels. Anyone know if this is available on the internet anywhere? Have you seen the 850 temps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 The 850 mb 0C line makes it up to POU this Euro run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, bluewave said: The 850 mb 0C line makes it up to POU this Euro run. 50 miles south trend and New York City stays all snow. Just need that primary to die off a bit earlier and the new low to form a bit more south. Which is possible because we still have about 84 hrs till go time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, bluewave said: The 850 mb 0C line makes it up to POU this Euro run. Anyone have access to soundings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Euro ensembles shifted further east Not over just yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 28 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Very good points. We have seen every storm come north in the last 2 days before so far this winter. If I’m betting, I think the weekend definitely comes more NW in the next couple days. The southern branch disturbance probably strengthens much more than the models show right now given the huge latent heat/convective release from all the Gulf of Mexico moisture and warmth streaming north Oh come on the trend has been south this year. Last year was north. I’d bet this trends to ukmet yesterdays run or close to it. Euro caved so far 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 I think its essentially over for a 90%+ snowstorm or a mostly rainstorm, everything points to some snow (3-6"/4-8") with a lot of ice/sleet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Anyone have access to soundings? Last I knew, even NWS mets didn't have Euro soundings in AWIPS. That's always been one of the major complaints. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 How far north does the surface 0c line go on the euro and for how long? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 16 minutes ago, Zelocita Weather said: I think its essentially over for a 90%+ snowstorm or a mostly rainstorm, everything points to some snow (3-6"/4-8") with a lot of ice/sleet. that's probably a good bet for most of us.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 hour ago, NJwx85 said: When the temperature is 20 degrees moving water can freeze. Need a steady inflow of low level cold air to acrete much ice with heavy zr falling. Any where near freezing and you quickly hit an equilibrium with melting and freezing due to latent heat release from the freezing process.. https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0434(2003)017<1016%3AMROFAM>2.0.CO%3B2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, friedmators said: Only one member has double digit snowfall in NYC proper. EPS 040 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 25 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said: 50 miles south trend and New York City stays all snow. Just need that primary to die off a bit earlier and the new low to form a bit more south. Which is possible because we still have about 84 hrs till go time. The Euro and EPS have been pretty consistent showing an elongated area of low pressure pressing up against the ridge to the east. So this allows the LLJ advance to the north of the low pressure track warming the levels above the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, NorthShoreWx said: Need a steady inflow of low level cold air to acrete much ice with heavy zr falling. Any where near freezing and you quickly hit an equilibrium with melting and freezing due to latent heat release from the freezing process.. https://journals.ametsoc.org/doi/pdf/10.1175/1520-0434(2003)017<1016%3AMROFAM>2.0.CO%3B2 Not sure I understand your point here. Temps never get above the mid 20's over most of the interior which is plenty cold enough to sustain ice accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, NJwx85 said: Not sure I understand your point here. Temps never get above the mid 20's over most of the interior which is plenty cold enough to sustain ice accumulation. Point was about the difficulty in the freezing of heavy rainfall. Even in mid 20s there will be a lot of run off if it is heavy enough. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 If surface temps can reach 30 degrees I would agree that the freezing rain is less of an issue, although I am not sure that's going to happen in most places. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, NJwx85 said: If surface temps can reach 30 degrees I would agree that the freezing rain is less of an issue, although I am not sure that's going to happen in most places. I would highly doubt it north of 78 and west of the GSP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 The GFS and the FV3-GFS both turn us over to rain pretty quickly.. The soundings don't look promising either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, NorthShoreWx said: Point was about the difficulty in the freezing of heavy rainfall. Even in mid 20s there will be a lot of run off if it is heavy enough. The Euro is showing rates of around 0.25" per hour for about 6-12 hours which is why it's showing such big ice accumulations. Even if you cut them by 50% that's a big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, bluewave said: The Euro and EPS have been pretty consistent showing an elongated low pressure pressing up against the ridge to the east. So this allows the LLJ advance to the north of the low pressure track warming the levels above the surface. Fair enough you’re entitled to your opinion I am entitled to mine. I still think the euro and eps are not done trending southeast. If that low goes another 50 miles southeast this is an all out snowstorm for our region. I look at models and I base my forecast on my knowledge. Models are guidance and not an exact science. I look at the pattern and I see the confluence getting stronger each run, making the primary dying more south, which is making a new low form and essentially becoming a big snowstorm for us. I don’t think this is done trending. I just think this ticks south slowly for the next 36 hours. You’re a very knowledgeable poster but I base my forecasts on my experience. I think this will be mostly a snow event with brief shots of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, Wannabehippie said: The GFS and the FV3-GFS both turn us over to rain pretty quickly.. The soundings don't look promising either. The GFS isn't good for thermal profiles. It has a known warm bias. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 27 minutes ago, Wannabehippie said: The GFS and the FV3-GFS both turn us over to rain pretty quickly.. The soundings don't look promising either. Thermals on those models are the worst. Gfs and it’s partner are probably worse off than cmc. I would pay attention to nam thermals once we get closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 UKMET has led the way here-Euro has gone from a cutter to over/just east of NYC ....The GFS I would just toss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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