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January 19-20th Winter Storm Threat


Rjay
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1 minute ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Fair enough you’re entitled to your opinion I am entitled to mine. I still think the euro and eps are not done trending southeast. If that low goes another 50 miles southeast this is an all out snowstorm for our region. I look at models and I base my forecast on my knowledge. Models are guidance and not an exact science. I look at the pattern and I see the confluence getting stronger each run, making the primary dying more south, which is making a new low form and essentially becoming a big snowstorm for us. I don’t think this is done trending. I just think this ticks south slowly for the next 36 hours. You’re a very knowledgeable poster but I base my forecasts on my experience. I think this will be mostly a snow event with brief shots of sleet.

You do realize that most of the precip is WAA driven and that if you start reducing that you're going to start reducing your precip? This isn't a phased bomb and the only reason we are getting that much front end snow is because of the initial overrunning. 

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Just now, Brian5671 said:

UKMET has led the way here-Euro has gone from a cutter to over/just east of NYC ....The GFS I would just toss.  

The GFS and the GGEM have both been awful so far. The Euro hasn't been much better. If the current trends continue, big win for the ICON and UKMET.

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Just now, Wannabehippie said:

How much of a bias? 5 degrees? even with 5-7 degrees it still would be all rain. 

 

Also what website do people look to get the soundings from models other than the GFS?

The GFS is 10-15 degrees warmer in spots than the Euro and the UKMET. It's not as pronounced near the coast but it's a big difference inland. 

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10 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Fair enough you’re entitled to your opinion I am entitled to mine. I still think the euro and eps are not done trending southeast. If that low goes another 50 miles southeast this is an all out snowstorm for our region. I look at models and I base my forecast on my knowledge. Models are guidance and not an exact science. I look at the pattern and I see the confluence getting stronger each run, making the primary dying more south, which is making a new low form and essentially becoming a big snowstorm for us. I don’t think this is done trending. I just think this ticks south slowly for the next 36 hours. You’re a very knowledgeable poster but I base my forecasts on my experience. I think this will be mostly a snow event with brief shots of sleet.

It says something when the Euro and EPS have been showing the same storm evolution every run going back to last weekend. It usually does pretty well when it locks in early. The Euro/EPS have been indicating P-type issues for days.

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Very worried about freezing rain amounts here in the Hudson Valley.  I am here in Poughkeepsie and I hope more sleet than ZR.. All snow is off the table, you have to go up to Albany for any decent chance at that given how the upper levels warm and models often underestimate how quickly snow goes over to ice in these setups with the warm nose above.  I would rather it go to plain rain here instead of ZR, but that is not going to happen up here given the projected strength of low level cold.  I don't think NYC area sees much ZR given temps closer to freezing and heavier rates of precip minimizing ice accretion... However, up here, temps in the 20s would support ZR no matter how heavy the precip.. We don't want widespread power outages especially with the dangerous cold after the storm.. 

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1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said:

At the same time though everyone will probably snow earlier than currently expected and there will probably be banding features.  So often times in a juiced up enough storm the mid level WAA gets somewhat cancelled out by those two factors and you get decent snow in advance anyway 

The November overunning event surprised with 6+ before the changeover. Is this a similar set-up? Can the same "surprise" occur?

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9 minutes ago, NYCweatherNOW said:

Fair enough you’re entitled to your opinion I am entitled to mine. I still think the euro and eps are not done trending southeast. If that low goes another 50 miles southeast this is an all out snowstorm for our region. I look at models and I base my forecast on my knowledge. Models are guidance and not an exact science. I look at the pattern and I see the confluence getting stronger each run, making the primary dying more south, which is making a new low form and essentially becoming a big snowstorm for us. I don’t think this is done trending. I just think this ticks south slowly for the next 36 hours. You’re a very knowledgeable poster but I base my forecasts on my experience. I think this will be mostly a snow event with brief shots of sleet.

I respect your opinion and I hope it comes true because snow is way better than ice and nobody wants a rainstorm.  However, for my own education, I would like to know what trending global indeces lead you to believe in stronger confluence resulting in a more southerly track and/or earlier redevelopment.  I am curious.  What are the NAO, AO, EPO, PNA and MJO projected to be around that time that would give credence to your prediction?  I am assuming that the stronger confluence and earlier transfer and redevelop will be due to stronger blocking than currently being projected?  

Honestly, not trying to be cute here.. I am needing some education about what teleconnection indeces influence a more southerly and earlier redevelop resulting in higher snow.. 

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22 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It says something when the Euro and EPS have been showing the same storm evolution every run going back to last weekend. It usually does pretty well when it locks in early. The Euro/EPS have been indicating P-type issues for days.

I agree this is mostly a Wintry mix as it stands but it’s not done trending in my opinion. Let’s see by tomorrow Chris

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Just now, David-LI said:

Where does that low goes from there? That's the question. Anyone with a professional guess based on the upper levels, etc.?

IT almost looks like it would cool down right after Hr 84 based on the trough orientation and LP. Looks like the 850;s would start to crash back towards the coast, but of course its almost impossible to predict.

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Just now, David-LI said:

Where does that low goes from there? That's the question. Anyone with a professional guess based on the upper levels, etc.?

 

2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said:

Now this is what I'm talking about. 18 degrees in Rockland County and it's only 06z Sunday. 

roaubCE.gif

Lol at the low level cold funneling down though.

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19 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

I respect your opinion and I hope it comes true because snow is way better than ice and nobody wants a rainstorm.  However, for my own education, I would like to know what trending global indeces lead you to believe in stronger confluence resulting in a more southerly track and/or earlier redevelopment.  I am curious.  What are the NAO, AO, EPO, PNA and MJO projected to be around that time that would give credence to your prediction?  I am assuming that the stronger confluence and earlier transfer and redevelop will be due to stronger blocking than currently being projected?  

Honestly, not trying to be cute here.. I am needing some education about what teleconnection indeces influence a more southerly and earlier redevelop resulting in higher snow.. 

Every run the last 3 days the high to our north scooted more east. First it was north of North Dakota now it’s around Montréal area. It’s hard to punch through a high like that with a low around 999. Therefore it dies out and a new low forms along the boundary layer. Resulting a switch back. In my opinion this is heavy thump of snow to freezing rain ending as a burst of snow Sunday afternoon. Horrible look. If this primary low trends the dying of the low just 50 miles southeast of today’s runs this could result in an earlier transfer of the new low off the Delmarva and ride towards just east of cape cod

 

edit: gotta factor in the evaporative cooling from the overrunning and dynamic cooling from the new low forming off the coast.

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