Ericjcrash Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, Snow88 said: All ice for us 2.5"+ 31-32° "freezing" rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: The weenie security blanket deep thunder is now way way way more amped than earlier runs. Yup but still somehow drops almost 6” in NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 GFS next on tap to disappoint. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, Ericjcrash said: 2.5"+ 31-32° "freezing" rain. How much of that actually freezes on the surface? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, Ericjcrash said: 2.5"+ 31-32° "freezing" rain. I think we'll be okay on the FRZ front unless models shift dramatically less amped tomorrow/Friday. However had the preceding airmass been 5-10 degrees colder then we'd have a crippling ice storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, TriPol said: How much of that actually freezes on the surface? With those rates and very borderline surface temps in this urban area I wouldn't be concerned as depicted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 How much of that actually freezes on the surface?1.5"+Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, USCG RS said: 1.5"+ Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk I doubt it really causes too much of a problem... except 2.5" of rain in a short amount of time can cause flooding. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, USCG RS said: 1.5"+ Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk At 31-32° with those rates? I'll take the under. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCG RS Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 At 31-32° with those rates? I'll take the under.Thats a 40% reduction. Perhaps you could take 50% and make it 1.25". Otherwise less than 50% accumulates. In other words it's not frz rn it's strictly rn+Sent from my SM-N960U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, Ericjcrash said: At 31-32° with those rates? I'll take the under. Yeah but also remember ground will be cold and precip falling at night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said: At 31-32° with those rates? I'll take the under. No offense man but NW of the metro is a completely different situation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 The problem is the amount of water that accumulates on the branches, power lines and what not will flash freeze with temps plunging into the single digits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 12 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: 2.5"+ 31-32° "freezing" rain. 31-32 in the city would be mainly plain rain maybe a little ice. I think you have to be in the 20s to get real ice accretion. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, allgame830 said: No offense man but NW of the metro is a completely different situation. No question. This disco started in response to anthony saying "all ice for us" he's on the south shore of BK. Basically no icing in that solution IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, HVSnowLover said: 31-32 in the city would be mainly plain rain maybe a little ice. I think you have to be in the 20s to get real ice accretion. Couldn't agree more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, TriPol said: The problem is the amount of water that accumulates on the branches, power lines and what not will flash freeze with temps plunging into the single digits. Agreed I think many are forgetting about the flash freeze... For example no joke I accidentally spilled coffee on my car window yesterday morning and it’s immediately froze and the temps were only 20 degrees... what do you think will happen will temps dropping from 30-40 to single digits.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomcatct Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, allgame830 said: Agreed I think many are forgetting about the flash freeze... For example no joke I accidentally spilled coffee on my car window yesterday morning and it’s immediately froze and the temps were only 20 degrees... what do you think will happen will temps dropping from 30-40 to single digits.. A lot of car doors and windows frozen shut... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: No question. This disco started in response to anthony saying "all ice for us" he's on the south shore of BK. Basically no icing in that solution IMO Ah gotcha... my mistake. I would think from at the minimum the Bronx on north this becomes an ugly situation based on the NAM and especially what the ICON is depicting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 7 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: No question. This disco started in response to anthony saying "all ice for us" he's on the south shore of BK. Basically no icing in that solution IMO Yep, I think you have to get NW of 287 to see damaging ice with this. SE of there it's either snow to rain or snow to freezing rain/rain. The airmass is not crazy cold. The GFS actually isn't terrible, its surface temps are ugly and likely wrong but I'd live with a 2-4/3-5 inch front end dump at this point, thats the best you're getting with this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, allgame830 said: Agreed I think many are forgetting about the flash freeze... For example no joke I accidentally spilled coffee on my car window yesterday morning and it’s immediately froze and the temps were only 20 degrees... what do you think will happen will temps dropping from 30-40 to single digits.. That, I think is the BIGGEST threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, allgame830 said: Ah gotcha... my mistake. I would think from at the minimum the Bronx on north this becomes an ugly situation based on the NAM and especially what the ICON is depicting. All of NYC absolutely could have major icing. But it has to be colder than 31° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 50 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Not much sleet with this storm. It’s going to be snow to freezing rain to rain at the coast and snow to freezing rain inland. Soundings disagree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Cmc came way further esst and gfs also. Cmc looks like the euro now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, Snow88 said: Cmc came way further esst and gfs also. Cmc looks like the euro now. GFS has some front end snow but has NYC getting into the 50s lol nothing like the 12Z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 9 minutes ago, HVSnowLover said: 31-32 in the city would be mainly plain rain maybe a little ice. I think you have to be in the 20s to get real ice accretion. Even in the 20s, if it's pouring there will likely be a lot of run off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 CMC is very close to a big front end thump for the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 11 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: All of NYC absolutely could have major icing. But it has to be colder than 31° No 32 will do...cold surface already. It’s freezing duh that rain will take to a bit of time to freeze but it will 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TriPol Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, tomcatct said: A lot of car doors and windows frozen shut... And power lines and tree branches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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