sussexcountyobs Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Dewpoint up another degree to 26. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, NJwx85 said: 12z Euro. Pretty much in line with my thinking. Pretty much nothing East of the NJ TPK. Once you get North of Interstate 80 and West of the GSP it's a different story. That has me in 7-8". That seems like a stretch.That must be counting sleet as snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: 12z Euro. Pretty much in line with my thinking. Pretty much nothing East of the NJ TPK. Once you get North of Interstate 80 and West of the GSP it's a different story. 3.5”, I’ll take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 The Euro doesn't take the 850 freezing line North of Rt 80 until after 06z. By then, this much precip has already fallen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomcatct Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just to put a positive spin on this storm, at least the pattern going forward appears cold and stormy which doesn't guarantee anything, but better than warm and rainy.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, sussexcountyobs said: That has me in 7-8". That seems like a stretch.That must be counting sleet as snow? Yes that is counting some sleet as snow however the Euro doesn't have much sleet on this run. It pretty much goes from snow right to rain. I still think the models are way overdoing the surface warming. If you look at the last four runs of the HRRR it shows a gradual trend towards colder 2M temps over Northern PA. We will have to see if that spills Eastward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sussexcountyobs Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Temp has dropped a degree to 31.1 Dewpoint has also dropped a degree to 25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, sussexcountyobs said: Temp has dropped a degree to 31.1 Dewpoint has also dropped a degree to 25 You're in a good spot for this storm. I put you in the 3-6" range but I think your ceiling is closer to 10" if the sleet and freezing rain hold off longer than expected. The Euro gives you almost 0.75" of liquid as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 19 minutes ago, Zelocita Weather said: The fact hat little storm yesterday did not develop and strengthen dragging down cold air behind it was the killer, it ended up just warming/stale out the airmass This is a very good point. Had that storm been stronger it would have also helped to amplify this system further though. Not that it matters for the coast anyway. It would have made the icing threat much worse just Nw of the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 7 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: Yes that is counting some sleet as snow however the Euro doesn't have much sleet on this run. It pretty much goes from snow right to rain. I still think the models are way overdoing the surface warming. If you look at the last four runs of the HRRR it shows a gradual trend towards colder 2M temps over Northern PA. We will have to see if that spills Eastward. was just noticing this about the HRRR too; correcting colder/drier the past 5 runs in nearly the entire cold sector and in damming areas east of the appalachians. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
coastalplainsnowman Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 17 minutes ago, NJwx85 said: The Euro doesn't take the 850 freezing line North of Rt 80 until after 06z. By then, this much precip has already fallen. On LI, even putting snow aside for a minute, the total liquid precip up to this point (which I assume this is) is only what, .40" for Nassau eastward to the Sagtikos. and quarter inch eastward from there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, coastalplainsnowman said: On LI, even putting snow aside for a minute, the total liquid precip up to this point (which I assume this is) is only what, .40" for Nassau eastward to the Sagtikos. and quarter inch eastward from there? Correct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 walt started an obs thread, btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 24 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: was just noticing this about the HRRR too; correcting colder/drier the past 5 runs in nearly the entire cold sector and in damming areas east of the appalachians. What worries me is that the HRRR soundings show a ZR profile even as far South as Rt 78, even as late as 12z Sunday, but it brings the surface up to 33-34 degrees. If that ends up a few degrees colder it's really going to increase the icing potential. At what point does the NWS start increasing ice forecasts? Right now they are pretty much saying less than 0.25" pretty much everywhere but you have to think the potential is certainly higher for a lot more than that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 You're in a good spot for this storm. I put you in the 3-6" range but I think your ceiling is closer to 10" if the sleet and freezing rain hold off longer than expected. The Euro gives you almost 0.75" of liquid as snow.In your estimation, how much of a threat is icing in Morristown?Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, North and West said: In your estimation, how much of a threat is icing in Morristown? Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk It's pretty high I think. That corridor between I-80 and say I-84 is the highest risk zone it seems. North of that area would see more sleet and snow and South of there would probably warm too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Current temp 31* with a DP of 15* here in mid-hudson valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 It's pretty high I think. That corridor between I-80 and say I-84 is the highest risk zone it seems. North of that area would see more sleet and snow and South of there would probably warm too much.Thanks. I hope we’re too warm here, but we’re prepared.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 hour ago, Zelocita Weather said: The fact hat little storm yesterday did not develop and strengthen dragging down cold air behind it was the killer, it ended up just warming/stale out the airmass that's part of the issue-had today's airmass been in the mid 20's we'd all get another 3-4 hrs of frozen-stale air and it's a quick changeover.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Slowly trending in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, NJwx85 said: Slowly trending in the right direction. Ive noticed the HRRR trending cooler each run. I expect some surprises with this storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Colder 2M temps continue to tick South. This is why the surface is showing more precip. You really need that colder at the surface in order to get the overrunning precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, snywx said: Ive noticed the HRRR trending cooler each run. I expect some surprises with this storm If your hood and mine don't mix ever would we both get btwn 12-18? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, snywx said: Ive noticed the HRRR trending cooler each run. I expect some surprises with this storm People are too quick to jump ship because they don't look at anything other than simulated radars and clown maps. They are two of the most unreliable weather forecasting tools that are available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, sferic said: If your hood and mine don't mix ever would we both get btwn 12-18? You have a decent shot at 12"+ up in Liberty. I will def mix. Im thinking roughly 8" high end for me with some IP/ZR Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 It's a balmy 37/28 right now and way too much salt everywhere. It's so odd how everyone I talked to is expecting some big snowstorm, the media really hyped this up for no reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 The axis of WAA precip is horrible for our area. Way too far NW for anything appreciable before the midlevels are long gone. It's a shame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: The axis of WAA precip is horrible for our area. Way too far NW for anything appreciable before the midlevels are long gone. It's a shame. No offense but this was never really about East of the Hudson River. I thought the city and LI would see a few inches and I still think that possible but that area isn't the main concern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 1 minute ago, NJwx85 said: No offense but this was never really about East of the Hudson River. I thought the city and LI would see a few inches and I still think that possible but that area isn't the main concern. This is a four inch snow event for the city. 8 for Mahopac. 5 inches for yanks. 1 inch for Anthony. 10 for mountain creek, 14 got Monticello, 9 for Boston. 19 for Albany. And half an inch for Philadelphia. Bangor Maine 23 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwx85 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Look how the 10m winds are still out of the Northeast even at 11z. An indication of the lower levels staying cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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