SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, allgame830 said: Ahh gotcha. Makes sense. If we can start by 5pm. I would think the City and western portions of LI would do OK. @SnowGoose69 what’s your feeling for Northern Westchester? Stay all frozen or nah? Possible 6”? I think they stay all frozen outside of coastal southern parts and yes 6 inches definitely possible northern half Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 The time frame of 10pm-1am, Saturday night/Sunday is when we will know if the models are right or wrong on a NYC changeover to something other than snow. Even the early snow thump requires a setup like we saw on Nov. 15, as the 2mT and DP are 6 degs. apart early on, with the 2mT not even at 32 for certain. On Nov. 15 I went from 37 to 32 and back to 37 in a matter of hours. Btw: The EURO has the 500mb Heights going from 300m BN, to 120m AN in just 48hrs. in the post storm period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 How are the observations upstream with cyclogenetic organization matching up with model data? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 HRRR is warm. Almost no front snow for Long Island Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, David-LI said: HRRR is warm. Almost no front snow. Can we be specific as far as location in terms of what the models are predicting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, David-LI said: HRRR is warm. Almost no front snow. No way on earth should the HRRR be used right now... it’s a very very short range guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 I hear NAM is warm, don't have maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 4 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: Can we be specific as far as location in terms of what the models are predicting? Yes I updated to mention Long Island, some precipitation in the city. Although someone commented that HRRR shouldn’t be looked at atm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, White Gorilla said: I hear NAM is warm, don't have maps NAM is warm. Very little if any front end precipitation for Long Island before changing. Waiting on 3k NAM which has been the colder model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Low going over central NJ on Nam. There could be an inch or two on front end here in central NJ but this will flip to a very cold heavy rain. Far north NJ looks messy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeinzGuy Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 6 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: I hear NAM is warm, don't have maps I think for the Hudson Valley the net effect is the same, still a sleetfest like every run has been Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, HeinzGuy said: I think for the Hudson Valley the net effect is the same, still a sleetfest like every run has been I was hoping for more snow before the sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Very little here. Those totals over far NNJ are too high but it still could be a fun ride in Sussex and Poconos. Wish I was in the Catskills this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Guys if you post sim radar or totals post the timestamp for the model run too, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HeadInTheClouds Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 2 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: I was hoping for more snow before the sleet If you are in Poughkeepsie you are going to get 6 to 8 hours of moderate to heavy snow before mix or changeover to sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, HeadInTheClouds said: If you are in Poughkeepsie you are going to get 6 to 8 hours of moderate to heavy snow before mix or changeover to sleet. I am not going to complain and focus imby. Hope everyone can max out as much snow as possible and importantly, stay safe and warm especially with ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, BxEngine said: Guys if you post sim radar or totals post the timestamp for the model run too, thanks. Sorry about that. Don’t post often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Roughly what time does the NAM have it starting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NycStormChaser Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 9 minutes ago, chrisNJ said: Very little here. Those totals over far NNJ are too high but it still could be a fun ride in Sussex and Poconos. Wish I was in the Catskills this weekend. FYI you can hold down the image on TT and save it to post here. You don't have to post a screenshot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 NAM accumulation map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 7 minutes ago, allgame830 said: Roughly what time does the NAM have it starting? 7pm for Central park an hour earlier for New Jersey/ Pennsylvania border. how is this winter so horrible! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 15 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: I hear NAM is warm, don't have maps I don't think it's a bad solution for our latitude. All snow and sleet, avoiding rain (freezing or otherwise). It goes without saying that snowfall rates will be prodigious prior to mixing, even with suboptimal snow growth, so every hour counts. The first pingers falling at 2 vs. 4 am could be the difference between 6" and 9". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White Gorilla Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 3 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: I don't think it's a bad solution for our latitude. All snow and sleet, avoiding rain (freezing or otherwise). It goes without saying that snowfall rates will be prodigious prior to mixing, even with suboptimal snow growth, so every hour counts. The first pingers falling at 2 vs. 4 am could be the difference between 6" and 9". In my experience, the pingers usually start earlier than predicted almost every time. Hoping tomorrow will be an exception. Regardless, should be fun to track and watch unfold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCweatherNOW Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 45 minutes ago, David-LI said: HRRR is warm. Almost no front snow for Long Island There’ll be dynamic and evaporative cooling verbatim wetbulbing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 The NAM was actually colder at 850 from 00-06Z by a tad from the 18Z run. I didn’t check any other mid levels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 6 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said: Not meaning to impart bias or disregard analysis thusfar, I have no preference and will take whatever the atmosphere gives us because I have no choice. Just wanted to say the sensible weather impacting millions of people depends upon some very thin temperature lines over just a few miles. Looks like the ultimate nowcast. Stay off the roads, wherever you are. I wouldn't wager any amount of snow or ice for anyone right now in the Metro. If you want to bet on rain and drive around, godspeed to you. Some people have no choice, my daughter will be on a bus from DC at 4pm. I am really rooting for all rain on this one, anyway maps show me with no more than 3 at best; if the icing can hold off til later, great. Maybe we don't even see any ice down my way ( southern tip of SI area ) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 14 minutes ago, Juliancolton said: I don't think it's a bad solution for our latitude. All snow and sleet, avoiding rain (freezing or otherwise). It goes without saying that snowfall rates will be prodigious prior to mixing, even with suboptimal snow growth, so every hour counts. The first pingers falling at 2 vs. 4 am could be the difference between 6" and 9". Actually, most of that "snow" on the NAM (with sleet version) is sleet and as per PW, there's also quite a bit of ZR showing for the sleet-fest areas. Still blows away a cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HVSnowLover Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 53 minutes ago, White Gorilla said: Can we be specific as far as location in terms of what the models are predicting? Agree and from what Ive seen and gather the only places really at risk of no front end snow would be the south shore of LI and maybe the immediate coast of Queens/Brooklyn but even that i'm skeptical of, I think it comes in snow for everyone in NYC/LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 Just now, HVSnowLover said: Agree and from what Ive seen and gather the only places really at risk of no front end snow would be the south shore of LI and maybe the immediate coast of Queens/Brooklyn but even that i'm skeptical of, I think it comes in snow for everyone in NYC/LI Ok I don't know as much as a lot of people here, but I really am doubting, based solely on what I'm reading and seeing here, that this is going to be much to get excited about for most of NJ south of about Union county. I get that this will be a serious event in a lot of other places, but starting to think we are safe down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Juliancolton Posted January 19, 2019 Share Posted January 19, 2019 8 minutes ago, RU848789 said: Actually, most of that "snow" on the NAM (with sleet version) is sleet and as per PW, there's also quite a bit of ZR showing for the sleet-fest areas. Still blows away a cold rain. *shrug* I don't look at the p-type algorithms. I was just going through the forecast soundings hour by hour. Admittedly the distinction between an IP and ZR sounding is muddled sometimes, but I just use my best judgement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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