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Orangeburgwx

January 12th-13th event

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The storm wave as it deepened over the central states was stout this run, closing off over Missouri before running into the NE confluence and sliding due east.  Here's the ptype sequence.  This is kind of how I envision this storm playing out, but plenty of time for more changes

RuRqKGF.gif

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6 hours ago, FallsLake said:

So if the storm ends up more north as depicted on the GFS and even the euro(from today's run), I think the question is; do we develop more CAD and consequently more southward expansion of ice. It will be interesting to see the next model runs...Tomorrow we'll start getting into the NAM range. Historically it has done well with CAD setups, but I'm not sure if it's dependable right now.  

Good point! I

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2 hours ago, mackerel_sky said:

According to GFS, we get two more ( wintry)  rain, shots after this one, within about a week! Atleast we will be busy!? How was the GEFS? Havnt heard it mentioned??

Yep! Time to gas up the failboat! It'll be busy the next couple weeks. Smh

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Well the 6z GFS just came in more south. It now puts the NW NC folks into south/central VA into good snows. RDU is still mostly rain but one more shift and we would be back to something significant. The 6z ICON is similar to the CMC. Good snows for mostly south /central VA, but a big ice storm for the upstate of SC to Charlotte to Raleigh. 

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3 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

When you have the CMC and icon on your side......

Lol..I know man. But the GFS did go south at 6Z. I'll have to admit I didn't like the euro run from last night. 

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Not a lot of maps posted.  That tells me all I need to know about the model runs last night.  While snow seems to be out of the picture for my area, I am still intrigued by sleet/freezing rain possibilities.   Overall, this setup reminds me of the last one.  My area of Wake got about 2 hours of snow and then a bunch of sleet and plain rain.  Even the next day, it was mostly rain.  

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9 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

Lol..I know man. But the GFS did go south at 6Z. I'll have to admit I didn't like the euro run from last night. 

The op was little north of the eps on the euro last night. So we'll see today if it adjust a little south. Anyway you slice it I'm all in that Ice and/or cold rain is going to be the predominant precip type outside the northern mtns in NC. It will depend on location and has the POTENTIAL to be a pretty significant deal in regards to .5+ freezing rain in a sw to ne strip most likely in the i85 corridor from GSP to Durham area. Our little hope of a 3-6 inch event is gonna be a neighborhood or two to our north,

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2 minutes ago, PackGrad05 said:

Not a lot of maps posted.  That tells me all I need to know about the model runs last night.  While snow seems to be out of the picture for my area, I am still intrigued by sleet/freezing rain possibilities.   Overall, this setup reminds me of the last one.  My area of Wake got about 2 hours of snow and then a bunch of sleet and plain rain.  Even the next day, it was mostly rain.  

Euro was a big step back for us, but as NCSNOW just posted the eps was farther south. As always the case when we're tracking a storm, the 12z runs will be huge. 

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3 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

The op was little north of the eps on the euro last night. So we'll see today if it adjust a little south. Anyway you slice it I'm all in that Ice and/or cold rain is going to be the predominant precip type outside the northern mtns in NC. It will depend on location and has the POTENTIAL to be a pretty significant deal in regards to .5+ freezing rain in a sw to ne strip most likely in the i85 corridor from GSP to Durham area. Our little hope of a 3-6 inch event is gonna be a neighborhood or two to our north,

Still a little time for this to trend back more favorably; and when I say that I mean getting a big sleet fest over downed power lines. 

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Euro was a big step back for us, but as NCSNOW just posted the eps was farther south. As always the case when we're tracking a storm, the 12z runs will be huge. 
Ummm...Who are we kidding? We wait with bated breath for every run, not just the 12Z! We would wait for the 11Z GFS with just as much anticipation if it existed.

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3 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

Still a little time for this to trend back more favorably; and when I say that I mean getting a big sleet fest over downed power lines. 

No doubt and I'm with you on the sleet. I dont mind freezing rain as long as its.25 or less. Anything over that amount, then sign me up for cold rain. Just dont see a window for this to walk back and be predominately all or mostly snow for I85 immediate corridor from looking at the synoptics and how its currently modeled. It would  take  a pretty significant shift south to get us back in an all snow sounding. 

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I would say if you are outside of the mountains and the far northern part of the Triad is just about game over on this one. 

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13 minutes ago, eyewall said:

I would say if you are outside of the mountains and the far northern part of the Triad is just about game over on this one. 

This is a CAD event, so wouldn’t the areas just to the east of the mountains do better than the actual mountains with the cold air funneling down the eastern spine?

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The euro move (twice now) to warmer was a big signal imho since it was in our camp earlier and better than the gfs.   Doubt it is going to track back south but you never know.

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31 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

GFS did better with the December storm, the Euro came around to it. Not worried about not having the Euro on board!? The shortwave hasn’t even been sampled yet!

Mack completely agree. Euro was horrid with Dec storm. CMC and FV3 led the way imo. Doesn’t necessarily mean anything in this instance but the Euro hasn’t been as deadly as recent memories.

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Timing and better “seeing” of the CAD may cause a few more south ticks before it’s all said and done.  But I certainly don’t like seeing the north jumps that have occurred lately.  But that’s fairly typical.  Hopefully, the models are underestimating the degree of damming.

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17 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Timing and better “seeing” of the CAD may cause a few more south ticks before it’s all said and done.  But I certainly don’t like seeing the north jumps that have occurred lately.  But that’s fairly typical.  Hopefully, the models are underestimating the degree of damming.

Bolded what I think is the biggest issue right now with this event. The timing has slowed 24 hours. 

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1 hour ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

This is a CAD event, so wouldn’t the areas just to the east of the mountains do better than the actual mountains with the cold air funneling down the eastern spine?

Yes I would agree with that. 

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