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WxUSAF

January 12-14, 2019 Storm Threat

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Take a look at the mids before assuming it's snow. lol

looks good to me unless you live in SE DC

 

jma_T850_us_8.png

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18 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Can you think of a time where a tall ridge in the west closes off and allows the shortwave to "back into" weakness like that? 

No and it looked jacked up but I never doubt a new way to fail. 

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Can't believe I'm even going to bother with the jma but it cuts off too far south and stalls and we are under easterly fetch too long. Adjust it north some and the thermals would be fine.  Don't and the precip we get from the initial waa would be over and just snizzle by the time that warm layer invades but the big snow would be central and southwest VA. 

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Just now, psuhoffman said:

Can't believe I'm even going to bother with the jma but it cuts off too far south and stalls and we are under easterly fetch too long. Adjust it north some and the thermals would be fine.  Don't and the precip we get from the initial waa would be over and just snizzle by the time that warm layer invades but the big snow would be central and southwest VA. 

Ji said it's all snow

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8 minutes ago, Ji said:

looks good to me unless you live in SE DC

 

jma_T850_us_8.png

If JMA is in then "nuff said"

I too noticed the undercutting on the closed ridge out west. Seems that lower heights are pushing in quickly on the coat tails of our SW.

 

This is the GFS @108. You can see how the ridge is getting compressed which from a timing perspective effects our system down stream. Specifically, limiting the toughs amplitude to dig and potentially making the whole system more progressive. The current GFS isn't kicking our SW out as quick as the EURO is with its fully closed off ridge solution. 

I'd like to see better spacing of the two southern stream shortwaves or less amped solution of the trailing SW

 

gfs_z500a_wus_19.png

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EPS clearly favors a weak/strung out progression. Very few GFS like solutions. Vast majority give us at least light snow so that's good but overall it's not the run  we're hoping for

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

EPS clearly favors a weak/strung out progression. Very few GFS like solutions. Vast majority give us at least light snow so that's good but overall it's not the run  we're hoping for

I don’t really fear a weaker solution at this stage in the game. Might be better if the wave stays flatter anyways as to avoid riding the line on how mid-levels perform with an amped scenario.

Id gladly take an all snow 27/28 degrees 2-3” event :)

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3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

EPS clearly favors a weak/strung out progression. Very few GFS like solutions. Vast majority give us at least light snow so that's good but overall it's not the run  we're hoping for

132 it closes of the ridge out west.  On a mean that is impressive.  Also has a stronger trailing southern stream vort.

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1 minute ago, PivotPoint said:

I don’t really fear a weaker solution at this stage in the game. Might be better if the wave stays flatter anyways as to avoid riding the line on how mid-levels perform with an amped scenario.

Id gladly take an all snow 27/28 degrees 2-3” event :)

The only disappointing thing is there are very few warning level events in the mix and basically none that look like the gfs. A cold light event would be great considering how awful this winter has gone but the eps showing very limited upside across the board is a bit of a bummer. 

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

The only disappointing thing is there are very few warning level events in the mix and basically none that look like the gfs. A cold light event would be great considering how awful this winter has gone but the eps showing very limited upside across the board is a bit of a bummer. 

the euro has never liked the event. The GFS will pull the plug likely now in the next 2-3 runs?

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As usual at this lead time, its an evolving situation. I saw a bunch of potential in that Euro run. The storm might ultimately be on the weak side, or south, but  I would be pretty surprised if it plays out as depicted.

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I have a tendency to randomly miss out on the best snows of the season because of previously planned travel. Rough streak. 

 

Anyway I’m traveling to San Francisco Jan. 10-15, booked in October and thought “watch I’ll miss the best DC storm of the year.” Enjoy, lol 

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

If the gfs has the right idea then it's a pretty big eps fail considering the leads aren't that long

Eps and Euro have failed very close to an event plenty of times.

 

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1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

If the gfs has the right idea then it's a pretty big eps fail considering the leads aren't that long

EPS was a step forward though.  Better 500 and surface/coastal low depiction.  The nondispersive nature of the ensembles (GEFS and EPS) makes me wonder how well the true probability distribution is being covered.  

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6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The only disappointing thing is there are very few warning level events in the mix and basically none that look like the gfs. A cold light event would be great considering how awful this winter has gone but the eps showing very limited upside across the board is a bit of a bummer. 

Yea, that part isn’t great for sure.

I think you’re right I’d definitely be disappointed if moving forward over next 2-3 days we didnt have some big solutions in the mix.

I currently think (could change) that a more modest solution is the most likely. Either way, I’m hoping for a good track on this one. Been bored with this current pattern, sheesh.

 

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Having the Euro holding back energy isnt new for any of us. I dont really remember if it still had that bias after last years upgrade. Either way a couple of inches sure would brighten up this board.

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51 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

EPS was a step forward though.  Better 500 and surface/coastal low depiction.  The nondispersive nature of the ensembles (GEFS and EPS) makes me wonder how well the true probability distribution is being covered.  

The Canadian ensemble doesn't look great either.  Only 5 / 21 members give me an inch of snow, and it looks like the low is suppressed on the mean.  The control is the best member for the region.

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14 minutes ago, cae said:

The Canadian ensemble doesn't look great either.  Only 5 / 21 members give me an inch of snow, and it looks like the low is suppressed on the mean.  The control is the best member for the region.

We start a thread and wheels come off.  

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4 minutes ago, jaydreb said:

We start a thread and wheels come off.  

Aside from great GFS, FV3, GGEM, and GEFS runs with improvements on the Euro and EPS, I totally agree with you.  

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4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Aside from great GFS, FV3, GGEM, and GEFS runs with improvements on the Euro and EPS, I totally agree with you.  

Lol, messing around.  If the worst current model run is 1-2” of cold snow from the Euro I would take that in a heartbeat.  

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