Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 FV3 is going to scare some folks. Drives the primary into WV so WAA pulls the 850 line into mix territory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Just now, pasnownut said: Yeah, this definitely looks better, but I'm not sure how it could climb as you say with a 500 flow in the northeast? Not sure we want it to climb north. Don’t need any temp issues. Good enough as is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Happy Hour no doubt. Seems like a Mid Atlantic Special (for now). I’ll bet a bit more norther trend happens. Eta: Still going at 144?? What!? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jackb979 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Decent hit on the 18z GFS. around 4-6 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Still snowing at 132. Ok 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: FV3 is going to scare some folks. Drives the primary into WV so WAA pulls the 850 line into mix territory. Where is the FV3? Its been offline since 06Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 3 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: FV3 is going to scare some folks. Drives the primary into WV so WAA pulls the 850 line into mix territory. Still good thump first? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 At hour 113 on the FV3 from the NCEP site.. rain/snow line is meh at least for my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Just now, yoda said: Still good thump first? Looks like it from what I can tell on atari ncep graphics. 2-4/3-5 before any problems. TT will show better detail when it comes out tomorrow morning. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 1 minute ago, Bob Chill said: Looks like it from what I can tell on atari ncep graphics. 2-4/3-5 before any problems. TT will show better detail when it comes out tomorrow morning. That's acceptable. Good stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 2 minutes ago, Scraff said: Happy Hour no doubt. Seems like a Mid Atlantic Special (for now). I’ll bet a bit more norther trend happens. just to be clear i think a slight northerly adjustment is possible, but unless I read it wrong, I'm just not sure how it gets up to Boston. It is a very nice (and acceptable) run just as it is. We rarely luck into events at the start of a new pattern regime, so its a win for many, no matter how MBY does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: Still snowing at 132. Ok Looks like it gives us snow showers through Monday afternoon. Would be very nice to see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 What I like about this run is the temp and pressure gradient over our region. BWI stays in the mid to upper 20s with 850s running way below zero C throughout the region.. 1040 high parked right where it needs to be with a low pressure along the coast.. that look is Sunday morning... If this verifies, there could be a lot boom potential with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 I will say... seeing a 1040 in SE canada on the Fv3 makes me doubt any temp issues. It's possible if the shortwave amps up enough and drives through the tn valley but basic MA climo says we're good. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schinz Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 @psuhoffman Fv3 says congrats. It's still a good run everywhere honestly. Temp issues seem pretty meager overall. Verbatim would be snow to mix or zr then back to snow as the storm rolls up the coast. Boston likes the Fv3 also. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: just to be clear i think a slight northerly adjustment is possible, but unless I read it wrong, I'm just not sure how it gets up to Boston. It is a very nice (and acceptable) run just as it is. We rarely luck into events at the start of a new pattern regime, so its a win for many, no matter how MBY does. I didn’t mean Boston had a shot. Nor would I care. I just figured it had a touch more room to climb the coast before heading out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Where is FV3 link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 For days temps do not seem an issue to me. Skull crushing 1040 where it needs to be and we don’t want it further south nor much further east. Powdery at first, then bit wetter but white, then soon as low is east st of our longitude then powder. 12/15-1 on this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 I will say... seeing a 1040 in SE canada on the Fv3 makes me doubt any temp issues. It's possible if the shortwave amps up enough and drives through the tn valley but basic MA climo says we're good. Any analogs jump out for this storm? Jan 14 maybe? Jan 2010? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 7 minutes ago, schinz said: We're due lol. In all seriousness though seeing the precipitation field extend well into PA gives everyone a goog margin for error. This type of system could create some good branding. For those who get into banding they will see the high ratio stuff opposed to sand and needles at 23 degrees taking forever to pile up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 7 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: @psuhoffman Fv3 says congrats. It's still a good run everywhere honestly. Temp issues seem pretty meager overall. Verbatim would be snow to mix or zr then back to snow as the storm rolls up the coast. Boston likes the Fv3 also. Euro says cold smoke so that is good enough for now. IP/ZR is fine too. Straight rain would be a kick in the pills. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 4 minutes ago, mikem81 said: Where is FV3 link? Go to tropical tidbits.. it is under global 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mikem81 Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 Just now, PDIII said: Go to tropical tidbits.. it is under global Only out to 06Z this morning. 12z and 18Z never updated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JakkelWx Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I will say... seeing a 1040 in SE canada on the Fv3 makes me doubt any temp issues. It's possible if the shortwave amps up enough and drives through the tn valley but basic MA climo says we're good. Are you saying that the temps here won't be as much as an issue than what the FV3 is showing? Snow seems to hate us across the chessy bay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I will say... seeing a 1040 in SE canada on the Fv3 makes me doubt any temp issues. It's possible if the shortwave amps up enough and drives through the tn valley but basic MA climo says we're good. It looks really cold to me... When you see the 850 line down in the tidewater and precip over running up in to PA.. you know your in business... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 18Z GFS IR inbound at 84 hrs is a beautiful sight to behold. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 1 minute ago, Ji said: 12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: I will say... seeing a 1040 in SE canada on the Fv3 makes me doubt any temp issues. It's possible if the shortwave amps up enough and drives through the tn valley but basic MA climo says we're good. Any analogs jump out for this storm? Jan 14 maybe? Jan 2010? Both are pretty good analogs. Southern wave running a boundary and enough confluence to abate temp issues and also keep it from running the coast. Cold powder like both of the ones your thinking. Some of these 30 hours of snow outputs seem unlikely. Very unlikely... pattern is still progressive and h5 doesnt close off. That eliminates long drawn out solutions in my brain but the models show it so we hug 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 8, 2019 Author Share Posted January 8, 2019 If the FV3 has shown any clear bias thus far, it’s to over amplify systems. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 8, 2019 Share Posted January 8, 2019 1 minute ago, JakkelWx said: Are you saying that the temps here won't be as much as an issue than what the FV3 is showing? Snow seems to hate us across the chessy bay. Eastern shore has different climo than my yard. Succeptible to mixing is a common setup. However, a big cold high like that isnt going to just lay down like a pansy. Mix line usually hits when waa precip is mostly done. Anything on the back side of a low is usually snow unless the track is tucked in close. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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