psuhoffman Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Geps sides with gefs in PAC pattern day 16. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 00z eps looks like it's a week behind gefs. Not overly impressive lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 3 hours ago, Chris78 said: Looks ok to me. Hints at an active SS as well. N HI ridge gone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 2 hours ago, Ji said: 00z eps looks like it's a week behind gefs. Not overly impressive lol Ha! Big change imo for the good. Takeaway for me is it actually tries to get there finally for a change. As u said just a little later. Maybe the age-old bias of the euro camp holding things back a few days longer in the West and PAC? Or has that been fixed? In any event a small budge towards the GEFS. The GEPS are now on the GEFS side as well with key teleconnections. Positive way to start 2019.....we can always have hope! Happy healthy and snowy New Year everyone! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 As I am sure many are aware at this point we are in the middle of a model war when it comes to the extended and the general overall pattern on our side of the globe. One model (GFS) is morphing into a very good look for our snow chances and the other (Euro) is playing at Scrooge. What is driving this war is how the models are handling the Pacific and more specifically the PAC Jet. Below we have the day 5 GEFS run of the jet at 250mb. The jet is on steroids basically blasting the west coast with PAC air. Notice how straight the jet is through the western and central Pacific where we only begin seeing it bending as it encounters troughing off the California coast. Now I have circled what looks to be a break within the jet where the trough is. Some may ask, Doesn't that show that the jey is weakening through that region somewhat?'. Simple answer is No. What we are seeing there is the jet is sinking through that region (moving towards 300 mbs) as it encounters the trough so the 250mb isn't picking up on the jet as well. One other thing to notice about that break is that there is a very small gap showing there. That implies that the jet is very strong running through that region and is fighting the natural tendency of sinking we would expect to see with what is a fairly strong trough. Make no mistake, what we have below is a beast of a jet that is blasting all the way into the central CONUS and overwhelming the pattern. The EPS is in good agreement with this look at day 5 as well. Now where the models begin to diverge on the handling of this jet is roughly around day 10. While the EPS continues to see a very strong jet the GEFS now begins to weaken it. Now below we have day 16 on the GEFS and notice the differences we are now seeing. We now see the strong and straight portion of the jet now withdrawn back to Hawaii and we do not see a strong signature of a jet again until we reach the central and eastern US. Notice the huge gap (circled) we now see between where the jet is being picked up at 250 mb. What this tells me is that we have seen a great deal of weakening within the jet (speed) as portions of it have been lifted and/or sunk in the central/eastern Pacific and it has to cover a great deal of real estate to get back to its natural level unlike the previous example. Now what I also see below is the signature of a split flow. Blue line is a northern stream setting up and the red line is the southern stream. With the northern stream you can see where it splits off with the extension from the main jet in the Pacific and then where it once again reaches it's natural state in the central US. Between these two points you can follow the flow though the jet seems to be weakened a great deal. That is not the case as the jet is still somewhat strong it has just been lifted towards 200 mb's as it rounds the ridge so it is not being picked up as well at 250 mbs. Conversely you can see the same features/looks occurring to the south marked in red but in this case the jet is sinking in response to a trough. Now one other thing I will point out. There are some hints of a potential 3'rd jet showing up as well between these two as evidenced below in black. This honestly is a very good look the GEFS is moving towards when it comes to the PAC and the jet. Now we have the EPS on the other hand. Not going to dwell on it too much, because frankly it is depressing as hell. But I will point out that MAYBE, JUST MAYBE, we are seeing cracks within it of the relentless PAC jet assault. Below we have day 13 which is roughly where the EPS may be showing some hints of backing off of the jet. Notice we have the strong jet almost to the west coast with a very small gap where it gets displaced somewhat downward before it once again reemerges and shows a strong signature. Not a winning look whatsoever as the jet is a beast and continues to overwhelm the pattern. Below we have day 15 on the EPS. Still a very strong jet showing up but we now do see that the jet maxes have withdrawn westward to wards Hawaii and the gap (circled) where the jet is getting displaced has gotten larger. Now this could be nothing more then just natural variance. But then again maybe there is something there. I will say that over the last two days of runs the EPS has ever so slightly been moving into the direction of beginning to weaken the jet in the extended. Now which of the solutions is more right? After all the sensible weather we could expect from either solution is vastly different. I myself haven't a clue. There are arguments you could make for either case. Though the EPS has had its moments I think for the most part the GEFS has handled the pattern shifts much better in the extended. But on the other hand when we are dealing with such a strong Jet as we now see that feature is very hard to break down. To see the GEFS basically flip that in a matter of a few days is a little hard to believe. You could also throw out the SOI to make a case one way or the other. Either going with persistence to make a case for the EPS or the fact it is reaching historic lengths in the positive values which argues for a flip post haste towards negative values making a case for the GEFS. Could throw out the MJO for either case. But they have been really rough this year so I am not so sure the value they would have. You could throw out the SSW/split occurring not just in the N Hemisphere but in the Southern as well. ENSO could be thrown in as well. All I know at this point is I haven't a clue. The winter just hasn't behaved how I would have expected it to. But if I were to make a guess I would probably favor the GEFS solution. But I think it is probably rushing the flip we are seeing with the jet. After all, the jet is a beast and I don't see it being manhandled basically overnight. So give me the GEFS solution, but move it a few days/week down the road is where I would put my money on. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 I’m very glad to leave 2018 behind for many reasons. Reading this forum before midnight was a bit depressing. However, it’s a new day and thankfully a New Year! And there is some good this morning if the GEFS is correct. If I remember correctly, I believe the EPS had us really warm before Christmas and it took it a while to change. So hopefully we will see some nice changes taking place shortly. Happy New Year and cheers to a (hopefully) wintry 2nd half of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 13 hours ago, BristowWx said: 6z runs show no frozen for the mid Atlantic for the next 15 days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 16 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: 6z runs show no frozen for the mid Atlantic for the next 15 days. Yes this is true. Without any emotional rant I do feel most of Jan is toast. Even when/if the pattern changes takes so much time to get something to track and then hope it makes it to us without getting squashed or just cutting. Hanging hopes on Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 8 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Yes this is true. Without any emotional rant I do feel most of Jan is toast. Even when/if the pattern changes takes so much time to get something to track and then hope it makes it to us without getting squashed or just cutting. Hanging hopes on Feb. It's very depressing because all winter outlooks had a cold and snowy winter for the east due to the weak EL Nino. Sure it can still happen but the Pac needs to slow down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 6z runs show no frozen for the mid Atlantic for the next 15 days.372 had mid Atlantic snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 3 minutes ago, Snow88 said: It's very depressing because all winter outlooks had a cold and snowy winter for the east due to the weak EL Nino. Sure it can still happen but the Pac needs to slow down. Wasn't NOAA's forecast for normal temps with above normal precipitation? Seems to be right on track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 8 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Yes this is true. Without any emotional rant I do feel most of Jan is toast. Even when/if the pattern changes takes so much time to get something to track and then hope it makes it to us without getting squashed or just cutting. Hanging hopes on Feb. Not to put a damper on your non-emotional rant but if the GEFS is close to being right we should start seeing tracking opportunities/windows popping up shortly after day 10. IF the GEFS is right. Won't even discuss what it would mean if the EPS is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 3 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Not to put a damper on your non-emotional rant but if the GEFS is close to being right we should start seeing tracking opportunities/windows popping up shortly after day 10. IF the GEFS is right. Won't even discuss what it would mean if the EPS is right. Hope so. We will see. Regardless it should be almost time for Vegas for you. Yes? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 1 minute ago, BristowWx said: Hope so. We will see. Regardless it should be almost time for Vegas for you. Yes? Yeah, I leave the 11'th and get back the 19th. GEFS is really starting to look good, especially towards the end of the extended, as to where I am starting to worry I might miss something just before I get back. But let's see if we can get that look into the mid term before I start panicking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 The mental gymnastics by so many to will some snow is................impressive. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MD Snow Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 38 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Not to put a damper on your non-emotional rant but if the GEFS is close to being right we should start seeing tracking opportunities/windows popping up shortly after day 10. IF the GEFS is right. Won't even discuss what it would mean if the EPS is right. Yup. I made a post in the middle of December about how we all put too much stock in long range ensembles etc. It blows me away how often we have had an amazing pattern in the long range days 10-15 and everyone is talking it up only to see it completely disappear. It goes both ways. And then everyone tries to explain why it disappeared only to see their reasoning for it disappearing have nothing to do with why it really disappeared. To punt the whole month of January is utterly ridiculous. I know it takes a while for crap patterns/jets to break down but still. I mean come on. How short our memories are. How often have we seen an ensemble completely screw up within 7 days with a storm just disappearing? How often have we seen 100's+ mile shifts within 96 hrs? And here we are making blanket statements about a whole month...blows my mind every. single. year. I would simply argue this...long range forecasting tools are great. Let's learn them. Let's learn how to use them. But in a way we kind of have to let the weather just happen and not take anything to seriously outside of say 10 days. We need to realize that yes there's a chance the whole winter will suck. That happens every once in a while but it's still a pretty low probability with 2.5 months of chances left. However, at this point in the winter, there is still a very high probability we get the flip and have a good couple weeks. Remember, we got an advisory/warning event in the middle of November. We were 50-75 miles away from the same in December and we still have January, February and half of march left before we can write it off. Heck, BWI has recorded at least 2" of snow in March for 6 straight years... Oh and for those who think this is a "just wait it's going to snow" post, let me say this. I believe it could go either way but I have decided to just let the weather do what the weather is going to do instead of trying to make the weather do what I want it to. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 19 minutes ago, Ji said: 52 minutes ago, Wonderdog said: 6z runs show no frozen for the mid Atlantic for the next 15 days. 372 had mid Atlantic snow I didn't count that because it was a suppressed system and as everyone knows, they never trend north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 11 minutes ago, showmethesnow said: Yeah, I leave the 11'th and get back the 19th. GEFS is really starting to look good, especially towards the end of the extended, as to where I am starting to worry I might miss something just before I get back. But let's see if we can get that look into the mid term before I start panicking. Two drinks, seafood buffet and a couple of bonus games on the slots and you won’t care if it snows for a week straight. We will do our best to hold off any winter weather until the 19th. It’s the least we can do. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
showmethesnow Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Just now, BristowWx said: Two drinks, seafood buffet and a couple of bonus games on the slots and you won’t care if it snows for a week straight. We will do our best to hold off any winter weather until the 19th. It’s the least we can do. Last time I got plastered was 4 years ago, and yeah you guessed it, it was in Vegas. Let's put it this way, if something does pop up while I am in Vegas I am going to put to shame the amount of drinking I did back then. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 SOI at -7.30 today. Two neg days in a row! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 1 hour ago, MD Snow said: Wasn't NOAA's forecast for normal temps with above normal precipitation? Seems to be right on track. They forecast that every winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 GEFS continue to head towards a much better pattern towards mid month. The ridge N of HI is completely gone, Aleutian low is there, epo ridge, pos pna, split flow out west with energy undercutting, neg AO, and neg NAO. The best part is, the better looks continue to get closer in time and improve later in the run so we arent chasing a day 16 pattern change any longer. Positive adjustments are now showing in 9-11 day range. Yeah I know that is still a way out but to see it nearer in time and not stuck just at day 16 is huge. GEPS are right there with it. EPS are in la la land.....or going to score a huge win tho they are even slowly caving it appears towards the end of their range . Would be lying if I said I didnt like what we are seeing right now. Panic room is probably going to be a barren wasteland in a couple weeks. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Well, at least you can say that the GEFS agree with its own MJO forecast. Pretty spot on phase 7 look. New euro gets the MJO deeper into 8 but heads for the COD pretty quick thereafter. ETA: None of the MJO phases that the euro goes through produce an upper ridge N of HI. The euro does spend a lot of time in the COD so that muddies it a bit...Harder to tell if it agrees with its own MJO forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Someone explain this... EPS runs the mjo into p8 then COD but shows one of the most hideous h5 panels of the season at the same time. Is it really the mjo causing the dreadful pacific? If the eps verifies I'm logging out of here because it would be an epic disaster not worth discussing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Someone explain this... EPS runs the mjo into p8 then COD but shows one of the most hideous h5 panels of the season at the same time. Is it really the mjo causing the dreadful pacific? If the eps verifies I'm logging out of here because it would be an epic disaster not worth discussing We have chosen to ignore the EPS. It’s the new NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Suggests some of the -AO seen on the GEFS may be strat driven. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Just now, BristowWx said: We have chosen to ignore the EPS. It’s the new NAM. The thing that makes me nervous about the eps in the lr is it's basically identical to what happened in mid Dec. Groundhog day and stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 4 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Someone explain this... EPS runs the mjo into p8 then COD but shows one of the most hideous h5 panels of the season at the same time. Is it really the mjo causing the dreadful pacific? If the eps verifies I'm logging out of here because it would be an epic disaster not worth discussing Two things perhaps. HM has been talking about a lag effect on twitter but why it’s lagging is beyond my HM decoding ability. Second, amplitude is just as important as phase and the euro still shows very weak amplitude even if it now barely avoids the COD. Either way, hope it’s wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Just now, WxUSAF said: Two things perhaps. HM has been talking about a lag effect on twitter but why it’s lagging is beyond my HM decoding ability. Second, amplitude is just as important as phase and the euro still shows very weak amplitude even if it now barely avoids the COD. Either way, hope it’s wrong. I get that but being identical to the disaster that started in Dec when the mjo could blamed makes me question every explanation i've read about why the last 2 weeks have happened. All we can do is hope the eps is totally wrong and caves. Otheriwse it might be game set match. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 1, 2019 Share Posted January 1, 2019 Eps isnt just a disaster in the Pac. Also shows a strong +AO and semi strong +nao. It's literally the exact opposite of what we want to see pretty much everywhere. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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