January Medium/Long Range Discussion

[psuhoffman]

12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I'm really liking the way ens are shifting for next weekend but it's a tricky setup followed by another (hopefully brief) hostile period. If we score next weekend it will be lucky bonus snow. My expectations are low but it's something to track. The trend last few days is a stronger hp to our north. Too much of a good thing is very possible. We'll know by midweek if we are in the game for real. 

The hostile period doesn't look that bad. The ridge that is the first to cut off the PAC puke jet to create our threat next weekend will progress across the country before the next one builds. Because the continent is still pretty warm overall even a brief transient ridge will bring some warmth. But the next ridge our west quickly builds in and the next stj system cuts underneath and we have another snow threat by the 17-18th. That's actually how this kind of pattern might play out but as the Conus gets flooded with more and more cold from the predominantly -epo those transient ridges won't be as warm.  Frankly I don't care if we get a 2 day warm up between storms when there is enough cold around and everything is digging under us. But I'm sure some of the snowpack chasers here will throw things at me for saying that.  But as the pattern matures the relaxes between troughs won't be nearly as warm. This is the typical step down you have talked about. 

[frd]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

The hostile period doesn't look that bad. The ridge that is the first to cut off the PAC puke jet to create our threat next weekend will progress across the country before the next one builds. Because the continent is still pretty warm overall even a brief transient ridge will bring some warmth. But the next ridge our west quickly builds in and the next stj system cuts underneath and we have another snow threat by the 17-18th. That's actually how this kind of pattern might play out but as the Conus gets flooded with more and more cold from the predominantly -epo those transient ridges won't be as warm.  Frankly I don't care if we get a 2 day warm up between storms when there is enough cold around and everything is digging under us. But I'm sure some of the snowpack chasers here will throw things at me for saying that.  But as the pattern matures the relaxes between troughs won't be nearly as warm. This is the typical step down you have talked about. 

The warm up could be muted, GEFS looks great and the Euro colder 

 

 

 

[nj2va]

Just now, frd said:

The warm up coould be muted, GEFS looks great and the Euro colder 

 

 

 

I was just about to say the same thing...Euro’s “warmup” next week looks like mid 40s so far.

[Bob Chill]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

The hostile period doesn't look that bad. The ridge that is the first to cut off the PAC puke jet to create our threat next weekend will progress across the country before the next one builds. Because the continent is still pretty warm overall even a brief transient ridge will bring some warmth. But the next ridge our west quickly builds in and the next stj system cuts underneath and we have another snow threat by the 17-18th. That's actually how this kind of pattern might play out but as the Conus gets flooded with more and more cold from the predominantly -epo those transient ridges won't be as warm.  Frankly I don't care if we get a 2 day warm up between storms when there is enough cold around and everything is digging under us. But I'm sure some of the snowpack chasers here will throw things at me for saying that.  But as the pattern matures the relaxes between troughs won't be nearly as warm. This is the typical step down you have talked about. 

Well said. Everything is on track now with all guidance in agreement. Better days are ahead and we have a bonus event to watch as well. 12z has been really good for next weekend. ICON is perfect, euro & fv3 are acceptable, and the gefs really upped the ante. No doubt in my mind that the eps adds to the building excitement here shortly. 

[Bob Chill]

Just now, nj2va said:

I was just about to say the same thing...Euro’s “warmup” next week looks like mid 40s so far.

Surface temps might be ok on the euro but it is a shutout pattern after next weekend in the mids and upper levels. It's expected so no surprise. Things look very promising down the line. 

[jewell2188]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Well said. Everything is on track now with all guidance in agreement. Better days are ahead and we have a bonus event to watch as well. 12z has been really good for next weekend. ICON is perfect, euro & fv3 are acceptable, and the gefs really upped the ante. No doubt in my mind that the eps adds to the building excitement here shortly. 

1-2 inch event is a start IMO. I think most in the forum would be excited to track anything at this point, whether we score big or conversational flakes.

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The only hiccup if compressed flat flow out in front. Couldnt amplify. Jack up heights in front just a little and its a warning event. Column is money.

This is close. There is no monster vort (at least right now) this time over the top running interference.  There is actually a high up over Quebec this time vs over us last time at this range. If we get the same trend in a stronger stj wave and relaxation of the flow as last time this could correct more amplified and north. Last time there was a pretty significant lobe of the PV along with a vigorous NS system sitting right over New England and it trended worse offsetting gains in other areas. This seems less hostile from a suppression pov if the stj system trends stronger.  

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

This is close. There is no monster vort (at least right now) this time over the top running interference.  There is actually a high up over Quebec this time vs over us last time at this range. If we get the same trend in a stronger stj wave and relaxation of the flow as last time this could correct more amplified and north. Last time there was a pretty significant lobe of the PV along with a vigorous NS system sitting right over New England and it trended worse offsetting gains in other areas. This seems less hostile from a suppression pov if the stj system trends stronger.  

Could easily run the coast. Eps will likely have a cluster that does that. Encouraging that all guidance has dropped the strong ns shortwave running a low across the lakes idea. The only thing we want to the north is a cold hp and right now everything is saying that will be the case. Cold powder is the holy grail in these parts.

[poolz1]

43 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

The only hiccup if compressed flat flow out in front. Couldnt amplify. Jack up heights in front just a little and its a warning event. Column is money.

Thanks...I see what you mean....

[ryanconway63]

Im watching Next weekends storm here in Virginia very closely.......The ingredients are certainly there for a winter storm.  Lets watch the ensemble trends over the next 24 hours for our best clues to what might unfold.  The Euro certainly thinks the air mass will be near optimal and the ground will be quite cold as well.   Stay tuned.

[jaydreb]

GEFS meteograms look nice.  Few total misses.  

 

[osfan24]

Going to need some fun fantasy storms to distract me from the calamity currently happening at M&T Bank.

[Bob Chill]

Eps is improved but giant spread. More misses to the south and east than i would like to see at this lead. Pretty even mix of good solutions, misses to the se, and non events. Still the best ens run i've seen inside of d9 since the Dec storm 

[Bob Chill]

I take back part of what i said. 0z eps was better.

[WhiteoutMD]

Going to need some fun fantasy storms to distract me from the calamity currently happening at M&T Bank.

Flaco will come in next back on topic


.

[frd]

6 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I take back part of what i said. 0z eps was better.

Actually I am surprised. Thought we see a move by the EPS towards more concensus and a impact. I looked at the EPS mean and yuck. 

Maybe overnight we see better results for us. 

[Bob Chill]

2 minutes ago, frd said:

Actually I am surprised. Thought we see a move by the EPS towards more concensus and a impact. I looked at the EPS mean and yuck. 

Maybe overnight we see better results for us. 

Eps upped the ante for areas NE of us so there are more storm solutions in general but for dc/balt specific area its not as good as last night. Some of the misses to the east destroy sne. Lol. Your area looks better than last night. I'd be pretty annoyed is the delmarva north gets hit and my yard gets whiffed.

[poolz1]

I would have thought the ind member would have been better just judging from the MSLP track.  0z had it run over Bermuda...12z was between Bermuda and Hat.  We lost the couple tucked solutions from 0z tho...Just my opinion but I would say overall its a move in the right direction.

[psuhoffman]

15 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I take back part of what i said. 0z eps was better.

At least the shutout pattern after is only like 48 hours now.  

[showmethesnow]

10 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

I take back part of what i said. 0z eps was better.

Talking about from looking over the individual members separately? Looking at the means I thought we saw a good improvement at 500 and especially the mslp.

 

[frd]

 l like this look ! 

 

 

 

[Maestrobjwa]

12 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

Eps upped the ante for areas NE of us so there are more storm solutions in general but for dc/balt specific area its not as good as last night. Some of the misses to the east destroy sne. Lol. Your area looks better than last night. I'd be pretty annoyed is the delmarva north gets hit and my yard gets whiffed.

That would make it three years in a row of storms going like this...mercy! Thought it was just a nina thing, lol

[MD Snow]

4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

That would make it three years in a row of storms going like this...mercy! Thought it was just a nina thing, lol

7 days. 

[frd]

I really have to read Judah's blog tomorrow, I really don't see this SSWE producing outcomes like 2005-06, but he did say make no assumptions. 

Also,  it appears he is just using the GFS model ?  

 

[aldie 22]

A foot in Raleigh then a foot Cape May then a foot in NYC then a foot in Boston.  I'd love to see Bob's reaction when that happens 

[Bob Chill]

6 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

That would make it three years in a row of storms going like this...mercy! Thought it was just a nina thing, lol

When we miss to the east it's more a chaos/bad luck thing than pinning it on anything specific. We've had a lot of progressive flow winters. That's what causes narrow stripes up the coast more than enso.

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, leesburg 04 said:

A foot in Raleigh then a foot Cape May then a foot in NYC then a foot in Boston.  I'd love to see Bob's reaction when that happens 

Is that even possible? Lol (because something that pounds Raleigh and pounds north...would have to pound us too, right? Whereas just Raleigh and a whiff here...would be a whiff north as well!)

[Bob Chill]

3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Is that even possible? Lol (because something that pounds Raleigh and pounds north...would have to pound us too, right? Whereas just Raleigh and a whiff here...would be a whiff north as well!)

12/26/2010

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

12/26/2010

Wait seriously? So it pounded Raleigh, went off the coast, then turned up?

[Bob Chill]

21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

At least the shutout pattern after is only like 48 hours now.  

Yes, that part looks good. Our tracking efforts are just beginning with next weekend.