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John1122

January 2019 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion

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2 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

Both sets of Ensembles keep the 11-15 day colder than normal. GFS/FV3 may have both been bad runs. Perhaps a bird farted near a jet taking samples over the Pacific.

Ha...and of course there will be fluctuations on op runs that far out. 

I am talking about extreme cold, not just modestly below normal. Hopefully that comes back. A couple days ago, there was an EPS ensemble map showing Day 11-15 mean temp departures of -15 to -20 C, or about -27 to -36 F, for the time period you mentioned, in addition to the handful of FV3 runs showing -40s F or colder in southern Canada. 

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True NWP has backed off since then. However the GFS and FV3 were really drastic at 12Z today. Honestly in the 11-15 day anything can happen. Risk of mild is non-zero. However I think cold is the safer forecast attm. I will LOL if the 18Z goes cold, but this is probably my last post of the day. Cheers!

PS: Possibly the models are simply fine tuning for today's climate regime. A few days ago models showed 1980s style cold. Now they are showing 2000s cold; still cold though.

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26 minutes ago, nrgjeff said:

Both sets of Ensembles keep the 11-15 day colder than normal. GFS/FV3 may have both been bad runs. Perhaps a bird farted near a jet taking samples over the Pacific.

Hope so

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I think I found the perfect point/click forecast there (well, perfect as long as you have an underground generator and food):

This Afternoon
Snow showers. High near 26. Strong and damaging winds, with a south wind around 75 mph, with gusts as high as 115 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible.
Tonight
Snow. Low around 19. Strong and damaging winds, with a southwest wind 95 to 105 mph, with gusts as high as 145 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 31 to 37 inches possible.
Thursday
Snow. High near 26. Strong and damaging winds, with a southwest wind 80 to 85 mph, with gusts as high as 130 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 22 to 28 inches possible.
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1 minute ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

I think I found the perfect point/click forecast there (well, perfect as long as you have an underground generator and food):

This Afternoon
Snow showers. High near 27. Strong and damaging winds, with a south wind around 70 mph, with gusts as high as 105 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Total daytime snow accumulation of 6 to 10 inches possible.
Tonight
Snow. Low around 20. Strong and damaging winds, with a southwest wind 90 to 95 mph, with gusts as high as 145 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 29 to 35 inches possible.
Thursday
Snow. High near 27. Strong and damaging winds, with a southwest wind 70 to 80 mph, with gusts as high as 120 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New snow accumulation of 20 to 26 inches possible.
 

Essentially a freezing hurricane.  At that point I would say you would probably want to barricade your doors and windows.

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I read the forecasts from Mt Olympus or Mt Rainier sometimes. They will have a week straight of 2-3 feet of snow per day with high winds at times. Amazing what going up 2 miles from the surface of the earth brings.

Also, 18z is very interesting for our region. Undercutting frigid air bringing wintry weather with both ice and snow and the cold blast that follows has snow well into  Florida, not sure I've seen that on a weather model before. Snows over most of the Florida panhandle.

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The 18z GEFS has another one of those crazy big snow means.  That is not the first time.  Again, I don't take those values verbatim, but I do use those to gauge the potential in a pattern.  Many times, a decent pattern will be preceded by models spitting out all kinds of big solutions before settling on one, usually a lesser extreme.

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Great looking 00z run of the GFS if you like cold and winter precip. A good bit of it happens within 10 days at this point. Not sure which will work, if any, for us, but the possibilities are looking better and better. 

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The Euro joined in to some extent. Now the Euro/GEM/GFS/FV3 all have the rain to frozen with undercutting arctic air next week.  It marches all the way across the forum area basically and the frozen is all the way down to the gulf coast. That's when you know it's potent arctic air.

In the short term, the Euro, along with other models, are giving 1-3 inches of backside snow Sunday morning basically along 40 from just north of Memphis to Knoxville. 

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 Watching this it makes me wonder if the actual development of the weekend storm won't be ever so slightly further south and more progressive. As tnweathernut was saying yesterday any chance the Pacific has had to push just a little more, it seems to be taking advantage of. 

Papin goes a little fast sometimes, though.

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Glanced at some of the overnight modeling....

0z CMC ensembles lose the ridging over the top in the extended, but the 0/6z GEFS and 0z EPS show ridging around the 25th in Greenland and it starts to wash out but then builds to connect the ridging over the top with the PV trapped underneath with a robust -EPO and some hints of that ridging extending to the west coast.  With that look a good chunk of the lower 48 would be at or below (and in some cases much below) normal.  

As long as the southern stream doesn't die we should be good for multiple winter opportunities. That doesn't even include the 2 opportunities in the midrange.  

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53 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

7 - 14 day Euro Control looked pretty good:

giphy.gif 

Through 18z...1-30-19,doubt not to many would complain about that,i know i wouldn't..lol

AccuWeather com® Professional   Forecast Models (2).png

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We take. While the control model isn’t likely correct  in showing three snows...  I believe it does show the potential the upcoming pattern holds. Probably only a matter of time before we are tracking a legit threat.

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1 hour ago, Bango said:

Looking pretty paltry on 12z suites ...

I wouldn’t put to much stock into any individual run at this point.  I’d look more at the trends from run to run.  Models are in agreement about the cold air coming albeit some variations of the temperature gradient between the different models.  They are also in agreement about the active storms/ moisture development over the next week or two.  Those are the biggest things I see.  I really like the models are showing continuous systems one after another over the next ten days.  As we know from last year, it’s tough when you don’t have moisture to lock in with your cold air.  So the fact we see multiple storm tracks continuously going into the future over the last few days of models runs is a huge bonus.  Then you add In the models being in agreement about cold air coming and I really think we’re sitting in a good spot to have legitimate threats over the coming weeks.  It could not pan out at all but given the variables on the table I like our chances across the forum area.  

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12z UKMET looked pretty good for the second wave on the front next week

giphy.gif 

 

and even the ever changing Fv3 even gave us some love:

giphy.gif 

And what the 12z GFS lacked for the above, it made up for in ultra long range. 

I'm actually kinda interested in the second wave scenario next week now. Maybe the snow today made me more optimistic. 

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16 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

12z UKMET looked pretty good for the second wave on the front next week

giphy.gif 

 

and even the ever changing Fv3 even gave us some love:

giphy.gif 

And what the 12z GFS lacked for the above, it made up for in ultra long range. 

I'm actually kinda interested in the second wave scenario next week now. Maybe the snow today made me more optimistic. 

  We are getting closer to having something to track.  It’s cool to finally see these potential wintry events being shown under 240 hrs on the models now.  It seems like the past month everything has been at 300+ Hours when it shows up.  We might be getting close to prime time folks!!

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1 hour ago, Bango said:

Looking pretty paltry on 12z suites ...

Probably a good idea to let all of the model data come in before putting the kibosh on it. 

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For I-40 and north: Energy transfer appears to be the main question on the next two systems, weekend and again middle of next week. What's new? LOL

Euro wants to gin up the southern stream over the weekend. Such a solution gets more snow into West Tenn. Also colder Monday morning everywhere. Others tend to botch the transfer coming out of Missouri. Show-Me state will show us quite a lot this time.

Next week we had a run or two with a back piece of energy throwing moisture up over the cold front. That is always a tough sell down here after the main system ejects. 12Z Euro is not buying, but it's a week out.

For HSV/CHA we will simply hope Sunday evening clears out well for the Lunar eclipse. It'll be crazy cold, but maybe just watch from heated home or car. No reason to get cute with photography.

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FV3 ratio'd map.  This will likely change multiple times, but most modeling over the last 12-24 hours have had a variation of this, some with more ice, some with less snow, but the orientation of the frozen precip has remained similar. Lots of moving pieces of energy plus major cold potentially invading. Models will struggle, probably more than normal, over the next little while.  That's why we see occasionally big swings in temps from model run to model run. All about timing, just have to hope for the best.

snku_acc.us_ov.png

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