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January 2019 Discussion

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13 minutes ago, Hailstoned said:

78 announced itself with plenty of fanfare. The models (and W.D.) were on to it days in advance.

Public wasn’t really made aware until around 36 hours out (or less).   The model(wasn’t there just one at the time) did well,

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23 minutes ago, WthrJunkyME said:

I see, good for you then.  By the way, try "couldn't" next time.  

Try this as well, right in between the buns

:weenie: 

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I’m not sure I can remember a setup quite like this...well at least with the upside potential. The 500 look isn’t really something that screams substantial snows, however, there are some signals for some big snows somewhere. 

There is likely to be an extremely impressive thermal gradient with immense WAA and vigorous lift. 

But how often do we really see scenarios of waves traversing along fronts produce substantial snows here? 

I think this could be quite prolific for the ski areas in NNE and maybe some hefty amounts for the east slopes of the Berks? 

This is quite complex 

 

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1 minute ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Public wasn’t really made aware until around 36 hours out (or less).   The model(wasn’t there just one at the time) did well,

It was one of those situations where the info was available and disseminated, but many paid little heed, despite the big January storm of a few weeks previous. Kind of like 38, it's hard to buy the seemingly improbable until you're wading in it, thigh deep.

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5 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I’m not sure I can remember a setup quite like this...well at least with the upside potential. The 500 look isn’t really something that screams substantial snows, however, there are some signals for some big snows somewhere. 

There is likely to be an extremely impressive thermal gradient with immense WAA and vigorous lift. 

But how often do we really see scenarios of waves traversing along fronts produce substantial snows here? 

I think this could be quite prolific for the ski areas in NNE and maybe some hefty amounts for the east slopes of the Berks? 

This is quite complex 

 

Just look at the wind fetch in SNE through most of the storm. Doesn’t turn northerly until the end. It’s a prolonged, twice as long, waa omega thump then what we typical see. All while being -10 to -15C at 925. 

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The jackpot will be further south than what the models have right now (not sure by how much yet). No bias, just see the PV going to push this further down.

Friday's system will also be a catalyst that will cause the arctic boundary to move south as colder, drier air infiltrates from Canada. 

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13 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I’m not sure I can remember a setup quite like this...well at least with the upside potential. The 500 look isn’t really something that screams substantial snows, however, there are some signals for some big snows somewhere. 

There is likely to be an extremely impressive thermal gradient with immense WAA and vigorous lift. 

But how often do we really see scenarios of waves traversing along fronts produce substantial snows here? 

I think this could be quite prolific for the ski areas in NNE and maybe some hefty amounts for the east slopes of the Berks? 

This is quite complex 

 

Upper air reminds me of Jan 3-4, 1994. The profiles look colder though so far than that storm.

 

 

Jan19-2019-1994compare.png

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Just now, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

Just look at the wind fetch in SNE through most of the storm. Doesn’t turn northerly until the end. It’s a prolonged, twice as long, waa omega thump then what we typical see. All while being -10 to -15C at 925. 

Yeah that signal can’t be ignored...that’s pretty substantial. Really tough to swing one way or another b/c the boundary could easily shift and the low track NW and we just as easy see +10C at 925 lol. 

I would also think there could be a good amount of convection across the SE and off the coast...hopefully that wouldn’t result in moisture thevery 

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Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Upper air reminds me of Jan 3-4, 1994. The profiles look colder though so far than that storm.

 

 

Jan19-2019-1994compare.png

Oh wow...that’s not a bad match at all. 

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18 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

The jackpot will be further south than what the models have right now (not sure by how much yet). No bias, just see the PV going to push this further down.

Friday's system will also be a catalyst that will cause the arctic boundary to move south as colder, drier air infiltrates from Canada. 

I suppose if you get some separation with the Friday system and it blows up in the maritimes, that could do some work in helping to get the second system south. We'll see. Lots of nuance here, but the big players hopefully should be fairly stable.

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39 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

Public wasn’t really made aware until around 36 hours out (or less).   The model(wasn’t there just one at the time) did well,

When I went to bed Sunday night I thought I was getting 2-4 inches and missing out on a huge storm.

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55 minutes ago, weatherwiz said:

I’m not sure I can remember a setup quite like this...well at least with the upside potential. The 500 look isn’t really something that screams substantial snows, however, there are some signals for some big snows somewhere. 

There is likely to be an extremely impressive thermal gradient with immense WAA and vigorous lift. 

But how often do we really see scenarios of waves traversing along fronts produce substantial snows here? 

I think this could be quite prolific for the ski areas in NNE and maybe some hefty amounts for the east slopes of the Berks? 

This is quite complex 

 

Still getting used to seeing Wiz with the red tag. Feels like we should call him sir or something. 

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1 minute ago, mreaves said:

Still getting used to seeing Wiz with the red tag. Feels like we should call him sir or something. 

:lol:

I’m hoping I can get back into posting more soon...or at least reading more. 

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Just now, weatherwiz said:

:lol:

I’m hoping I can get back into posting more soon...or at least reading more. 

I will still call you Kevin's bitch

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1 minute ago, Ericjcrash said:

ICON is still an outlier but at least it's not raining in Quebec this run.

What does outlier mean? Nice thermo contrast

icon_T2m_neus_55.png

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Nice thermals on ICON....pellets south of the pike with single digit temps tickling N RI.

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All coming together.  But wth the d7 lead time I’d like to be cautious for a few more days. Probably will get gfs in the morning.....trying to store some sleep...lol.

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Just now, weathafella said:

All coming together.  But wth the d7 lead time I’d like to be cautious for a few more days. Probably will get gfs in the morning.....trying to store some sleep...lol.

GFS already out to 72 and GGEM out in about 10-15 min....we all know you are staying up for them. It's a disease.

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3 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

GFS already out to 72 and GGEM out in about 10-15 min....we all know you are staying up for them. It's a disease.

Lol....maybe.

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