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BuffaloWeather

Upstate/Eastern New York

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Every little cold shot is transient with no real trough in site.  I could care less about no SSW cause they never pan out for us, but Europe on the other hand, is a totally diff story!

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I'm taking it week by week and Next week looks mostly avg to slightly below for max temps, a little warmer for min temps(plenty of overcast)..Only one real warm day and that is tues which wont last long once the CF swings through..

Sunday
A chance of snow showers, mainly before 1pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 32. Northwest wind around 15 mph. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Sunday Night
Partly cloudy, with a low around 8.
Monday
A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 28. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Monday Night
Snow. Low around 25. Chance of precipitation is 80%.
Tuesday
A chance of rain and snow showers before 8am, then a chance of rain showers. Cloudy, with a high near 39. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Tuesday Night
A chance of snow showers. Cloudy, with a low around 29. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Wednesday
A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 32. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
Wednesday Night
A chance of snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 18. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Thursday
A chance of snow showers. Partly sunny, with a high near 24. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

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Time to issue my mea culpa. I am at the top of the blame pile - easiest call in the world was no snow / winter this year given my property purchase. Will probably be single handily responsible for the closing of Peek N Peak and the Wilderness Lodge resorts over the next decade, especially when we build our permanent home out there. Conversely, Mt. Pleasant ski area in Edinboro will benefit from record snows once I move.

I could live at the top of Mt. Baker ski area in Washington state and their average annual snowfall of 663" would plummet.

My apologies...:( 

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10 minutes ago, MAIDEsNow.2 said:

Time to issue my mea culpa. I am at the top of the blame pile - easiest call in the world was no snow / winter this year given my property purchase. Will probably be single handily responsible for the closing of Peek N Peak and the Wilderness Lodge resorts over the next decade, especially when we build our permanent home out there. Conversely, Mt. Pleasant ski area in Edinboro will benefit from record snows once I move.

I could live at the top of Mt. Baker ski area in Washington state and their average annual snowfall of 663" would plummet.

My apologies...:( 

Thanks a lot for ruining our winters! 

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3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Keep an eye on that follow up wave..

 

ezgif.com-resize (2).gif

What do temp profiles look like for that follow up wave? Cold enough for snow or more of the same?

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Yeah, thats pretty much what the euro shows..

Warmer with the intial warm front with more mixing and less snow..

Follow up wave along the CF is pretty weak, definitely not like the ukmet/gfs..Just some light rain/snow showrs..

Eventually a secondary get's going with an IVt along part of SNE and wrap around moisture on a nw flow for a good 18-24 hours..

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4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

The rest of the USA is still warm. Not really a good look at all tbh. 

ecmwf_T850_us_11.png

Almost 50 and full sunshine out right now. I’m working outside in pants and a T shirt and it feels absolutely fantastic. This is an unreal stretch for sure. 

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Just now, WesterlyWx said:

Almost 50 and full sunshine out right now. I’m working outside in pants and a T shirt and it feels absolutely fantastic. This is an unreal stretch for sure. 

Yeah we are going to have incredibly warm lakes if we ever get some arctic air to pay a visit. It feels like a legit spring day outside right now. Had to turn the AC on in my office because of the strong sun.

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38 minutes ago, WesterlyWx said:

Almost 50 and full sunshine out right now. I’m working outside in pants and a T shirt and it feels absolutely fantastic. This is an unreal stretch for sure. 

I know, crazy!  Really nice April day outside.  

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48 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Guess im saying it looks cold and dry in the med-long range on the euro..

 

ezgif.com-resize (3).gif

This was my fear all along. The "sister PV" would be more easterly and not over Hudson Bay pushing the storm track well south and east of the CWA leaving us just as we are now except we would have frozen mud. 

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3 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

This was my fear all along. The "sister PV" would be more easterly and not over Hudson Bay pushing the storm track well south and east of the CWA leaving us just as we are now except we would have frozen mud. 

Ill take that because at the very least we will get some alberta clippers to drop an inch or two of snow every few days. Ill gladly take a few inches of snow and freezing temperatures instead of this pattern 

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Sunny with a temperature of 52 degrees January 6th Syracuse New York can you believe it? I guess that O2 O3 analog can get thrown out the window now, lol!

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk

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Classic El Niño. Analogue 82-83 all day. 

As for any SW LES, we’ve talked about it before, my take is that BUF missed its classic December window. 

At least we might see some EC action mixed with clippers. 

It was nice today. I got a bit of vitamin D. 

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12 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Classic El Niño. Analogue 82-83 all day. 

As for any SW LES, we’ve talked about it before, my take is that BUF missed its classic December window. 

At least we might see some EC action mixed with clippers. 

It was nice today. I got a bit of vitamin D. 

Metro Buffalo two biggest snowstorms came in Late January. Blizzard of 1977 and Blizzard of 1985. 

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1 hour ago, CNY-LES FREAK said:

Sunny with a temperature of 52 degrees January 6th Syracuse New York can you believe it? I guess that O2 O3 analog can get thrown out the window now, lol!

Sent from my SM-G930V using Tapatalk
 

Wire to wire my friend. 

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16 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Classic El Niño. Analogue 82-83 all day. 

As for any SW LES, we’ve talked about it before, my take is that BUF missed its classic December window. 

At least we might see some EC action mixed with clippers. 

It was nice today. I got a bit of vitamin D. 

I disagree this is one of the weakest El Ninos in recent history. It's forcing is not even be shown across the Conus. Instead the MJO is dominating it. If the Nino was stronger I doubt we see what we've seen so far this winter. As I already said earlier if we use analogs Weak Ninos=Best snowfall years for Upstate. However, analogs are many times wrong, but it's all we've got to go on. 

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Metro Buffalo two biggest snowstorms came in Late January. Blizzard of 1977 and Blizzard of 1985. 


I’d say metro window is mid November to mid January... We’ve had some good storms into January but looking date wise things abruptly seem to shut off January 20ish for us. 85 was Jan 19-21. 77 wasn’t lake effect. Looking back I can only find one somewhat impressive strictly lake effect event for Buffalo in the month of February. 1908 which saw a 2 day lake storm dump 22” downtown with winds gusting to 70 mph. That season only saw 27” during Nov-Jan but followed it up with a 36” Feb.


.

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8 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

 


I’d say metro window is mid November to mid January... We’ve had some good storms into January but looking date wise things abruptly seem to shut off January 20ish for us. 85 was Jan 19-21. 77 wasn’t lake effect. Looking back I can only find one somewhat impressive strictly lake effect event for Buffalo in the month of February. 1908 which saw a 2 day lake storm dump 22” downtown with winds gusting to 70 mph. That season only saw 27” during Nov-Jan but followed it up with a 36” Feb. 


.

 

I believe that's more due to the lake freezing over around that time, and not due to the weather pattern being less conducive for lake effect in the metro. As long as the lake remains open, lake-effect storms are fair game for the metro. 

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1 hour ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

 


I’d say metro window is mid November to mid January... We’ve had some good storms into January but looking date wise things abruptly seem to shut off January 20ish for us. 85 was Jan 19-21. 77 wasn’t lake effect. Looking back I can only find one somewhat impressive strictly lake effect event for Buffalo in the month of February. 1908 which saw a 2 day lake storm dump 22” downtown with winds gusting to 70 mph. That season only saw 27” during Nov-Jan but followed it up with a 36” Feb.


.

 

I agree with this as the general time frame. However, that is because as mentioned above the lake is usually on its way to freezing. Unless we get some really cold arctic air I don't see Erie completely freezing this year. A 40 degree lake in mid-late January is the same temp of the lake in early/mid December. Once we get into March it's tough to get lake effect off either lake due to diurnal influences. 

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This system,a shortwave aloft, coupled with a weak surface low at the surface will
approach the Lower Great Lakes from the Midwest. Light isentropic
lift precipitation is possible through the afternoon hours of
Monday, with then the main area of precipitation, coupled with lift
ahead of the shortwave, crossing the region Monday night. P-type may
be a little tricky, with perhaps a brief period of snow at the onset
before warmer air increases ahead of the surface low in the lower
levels and pushes the bulk of the air in the lower column of the
atmosphere above freezing. Snow accumulation will be minor through
Monday night across WNY, with perhaps an inch...but east of Lake
Ontario where cooler air will remain several inches or more of snow
is possible. Will continue to highlight this snow potential in the
HWO. As the upper level shortwave passes us Monday night
precipitation will end from west to east across much of the region.
The next two systems of interest are still in the Pacific and as
such, there`s somewhat lower confidence in timing.  The first is
located west of CA.  This will be shortwave trough responsible for
the surface trough that moves through Monday night, with lingering
showers possible east of Lake Ontario early Tuesday.  There should
be a dry period behind the departing system on Tuesday based on
current guidance, but for now will keep a chance of showers in the
forecast until timing is better resolved.

The second system is a little harder to pinpoint, but it will
probably be associated with the 180kt jet currently riding along a
weak amplitude long wave ridge and moving toward the Gulf of
AK/along along the 45th parallel as seen with GOES 17 (preliminary
and not operational). Once a shortwave trough is formed, it will
move east across OR/WA and then through the northern plains, finally
generating a discernible weak lee side surface low near MT or north
in Alberta by Monday.  It should then move east across the Central
or Northern Great Lakes and finally across Southern Ontario/WNY by
late Tuesday or Tuesday night. Again, with timing a factor, there
should be a break in precip, probably on Tuesday, but with
temperatures profiles cold enough for primarily snow or transition
from rain to snow moving in from the west late Tuesday and lasting
through Tuesday Night.

Behind this system, concerns then focus on the mesoscale with
northwest flow and resultant lake effect, which should last from
Wednesday into Thursday, but with no confidence on any specifics
(location/intensity) at this time other than general wind direction
High pressure should build into the region by Friday and ending any
lake effect.

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