Bubbler86 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 The GFS is not going to be like the Icon. LOL. 540 Line is already well up into Pa at 54. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTrout Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 6 minutes ago, Superstorm said: I thought I heard 16F. . Either way, they would struggles for 2 days if the all frozen of some variety, scenario plays out for south/central pa. Icon showed lows of -5 on Tuesday night all the way down in the LSV. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 The NAM has a front end crush job eerily similarity November . Pro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Icon=Talking about what kind of backup power source GFS=Honey, did you wash my shorts? I want to wear them this weekend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 JMA stays on our team though 850's break freezing east of I81 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 The GFS is U-G-L-Y. Like, really terrible. The GFS is so far away from any other model it has to be tossed, right?. Maybe the shutdown really is impacting its data entry now. If it's right it's a coup like no other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 FWIW, GoFuS did bring the LP slightly further SE from 6z and precip seemed a little better on frozen side. If it can adjust further SE, it wont take much to see it take the look of the Ukie/Euro/Icon as they all from my brief view, have similar evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, canderson said: The GFS is U-G-L-Y. Like, really terrible. The GFS is so far away from any other model it has to be tossed, right?. Maybe the shutdown really is impacting its data entry now. If it's right it's a coup like no other. and if its wrong....it will do much damage as I've been trying to "like" it more. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Hey all! Thought I'd stop in to check out what's happening over in my old stomping grounds. Looks like a fun weekend in store for much of the forum. There's a higher than normal chance of WSW snowfall for areas north of the Turnpike with 8+" certainly in the cards for north-central and NW PA this weekend. Taking a look at the models this morning, there's a general agreement in all of the forum beginning with snow, even down to the M/D line as the initial WAA regime kicks in with the southerly H85 flow out of the surface low back in the Tennessee Valley. With the lack of a sufficient HP over the top funneling cold air into the region, we'll be prone to warming in the mids with the southern zones eventually flipping to sleet/ZR as the low level jet cranks and brings levels between 925-800mb above freezing. The surface wedge should be difficult to scower out at first, and some ZR potential is there for areas south of turnpike and sleet near the turnpike overnight Saturday into Sunday. Eventually, the area south of the pike should turn to straight rain with temps hovering around 32-34 for the remainder of the event. So, southern zones will see modest impact, but certainly nothing too rough to handle. Can see 2-6" of snow from the M/D line to the turnpike with highest amounts the further north you go. As for the crew out west to 99 and along the Allegheny front, strong H85 frontogenesis with upslope will produce a period of very heavy snowfall for several hours with massive aggregates likely given the growth within the DGZ. Snow will transition to IP/ZR once the H85 jet max noses into the area generating a very shallow warm layer that will shift the ptype. However, once the arctic front pushes through, any shift from snow earlier will transition back with upslope snowfall continuing as PVA swings through and we get a secondary surface frontogen along the mountains. A few inches of snow will be possible on the backside with the initial changeover as the low passes to the east. This areas could very well exceed 6" with up to a foot possible in areas along I-99 to the I-80 corridor. Areas north of I-80 will see a prolonged period of heavy snowfall with very little chance of a changeover once west of State College. Williamsport, Clearfield, and north-central and NW tier of the state will be under the gun for a very strong H85 frontogen presence that will generate some significant banding structures across the region. 1-2"/hr snowfall will be possible in the I-80 corridor and north and will likely push totals above 8" for many in that area. Warm nose will poke northward with some sleet possible from State College and east as the surface reflection rides east-northeast over Mid Atlantic. Backside of the surface low with trailing arctic front will blast through and some backside snow is possible in the eastern valleys, but downsloping will allow for a quick drying of the boundary layer, and snow will cut off pretty quickly over the area. Frigid temps are expected post front for everyone with areas around I-80 struggling to get out of the single digits on Monday with below zero lows likely across the northern tier. Bradford, PA and the Grand Canyon of PA will likely settle into the negative teens on Monday morning with WC's well below zero for most, if not all the sub forum on Monday morning. Hope you guys enjoy the snow and stay warm! I'll be visiting family starting tomorrow through the 26th, so I'll be in the region, but I'll be watching from the sidelines at my parents place in Southern DE along the coast. Drip drip drip for me lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 The Canadian is going to torch us. Disappointing a bit as I one that is trend watching would have to say north at the moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said: Hey all! Thought I'd stop in to check out what's happening over in my old stomping grounds. Looks like a fun weekend in store for much of the forum. There's a higher than normal chance of WSW snowfall for areas north of the Turnpike with 8+" certainly in the cards for north-central and NW PA this weekend. Taking a look at the models this morning, there's a general agreement in all of the forum beginning with snow, even down to the M/D line as the initial WAA regime kicks in with the southerly H85 flow out of the surface low back in the Tennessee Valley. With the lack of a sufficient HP over the top funneling cold air into the region, we'll be prone to warming in the mids with the southern zones eventually flipping to sleet/ZR as the low level jet cranks and brings levels between 925-800mb above freezing. The surface wedge should be difficult to scower out at first, and some ZR potential is there for areas south of turnpike and sleet near the turnpike overnight Saturday into Sunday. Eventually, the area south of the pike should turn to straight rain with temps hovering around 32-34 for the remainder of the event. So, southern zones will see modest impact, but certainly nothing too rough to handle. Can see 2-6" of snow from the M/D line to the turnpike with highest amounts the further north you go. As for the crew out west to 99 and along the Allegheny front, strong H85 frontogenesis with upslope will produce a period of very heavy snowfall for several hours with massive aggregates likely given the growth within the DGZ. Snow will transition to IP/ZR once the H85 jet max noses into the area generating a very shallow warm layer that will shift the ptype. However, once the arctic front pushes through, any shift from snow earlier will transition back with upslope snowfall continuing as PVA swings through and we get a secondary surface frontogen along the mountains. A few inches of snow will be possible on the backside with the initial changeover as the low passes to the east. This areas could very well exceed 6" with up to a foot possible in areas along I-99 to the I-80 corridor. Areas north of I-80 will see a prolonged period of heavy snowfall with very little chance of a changeover once west of State College. Williamsport, Clearfield, and north-central and NW tier of the state will be under the gun for a very strong H85 frontogen presence that will generate some significant banding structures across the region. 1-2"/hr snowfall will be possible in the I-80 corridor and north and will likely push totals above 8" for many in that area. Warm nose will poke northward with some sleet possible from State College and east as the surface reflection rides east-northeast over Mid Atlantic. Backside of the surface low with trailing arctic front will blast through and some backside snow is possible in the eastern valleys, but downsloping will allow for a quick drying of the boundary layer, and snow will cut off pretty quickly over the area. Frigid temps are expected post front for everyone with areas around I-80 struggling to get out of the single digits on Monday with below zero lows likely across the northern tier. Bradford, PA and the Grand Canyon of PA will likely settle into the negative teens on Monday morning with WC's well below zero for most, if not all the sub forum on Monday morning. Hope you guys enjoy the snow and stay warm! I'll be visiting family starting tomorrow through the 26th, so I'll be in the region, but I'll be watching from the sidelines at my parents place in Southern DE along the coast. Drip drip drip for me lol Thank you SO much for your thoughts! We all appreciate it (and you) very much. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 0Z ECMWF 90 hr freezing rain accumulation . Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, Jns2183 said: 0Z ECMWF 90 hr freezing rain accumulation . Pro HOLY CRAP no no no dear god no. 1" zr is catastrophic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 **** me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: **** me. cant........... already committed myself to the ICON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 CMC/GFS are teaming up in evolution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 HOLY CRAP no no no dear god no. 1" zr is catastrophic. I have a feeling that might not be accounting for sleet properly, but just look at the difference in the NAM snowfall output between those two maps posted previously. That area between 81 & the turnpike is not going to be pretty. . Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 5 minutes ago, pasnownut said: cant........... already committed myself to the ICON Size queen 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTrout Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Really hoping the Euro is on our side. The 12z runs today are the first set we should really start to put a lot of weight on. Energy just coming onto the west coast. If we lose the Euro.......I will start to lose a little hope. #Team Europe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, pawatch said: Nam Lovin' that hole over northern Lancaster county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 18 minutes ago, JTrout said: Really hoping the Euro is on our side. The 12z runs today are the first set we should really start to put a lot of weight on. Energy just coming onto the west coast. If we lose the Euro.......I will start to lose a little hope. #Team Europe The North American models shut this forum down. I agree if our European Allies do not come through it is cricket time. Right now all we have is the Axis Japan and Germany (Until the 18Z name, LOL). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, bubbler86 said: The American models shut this forum down. I agree if our European Allies do not come through it is cricket time. (Until the 18Z name, LOL). Someone on the NYC forum with the hard to read maps of the Ukie said it came NW of where it's been, but it's still SE of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Someone on the NYC forum with the hard to read maps of the Ukie said it came NW of where it's been, but it's still SE of the GFS. Unfortunately we do not have any room for NW movement (snow) so the UK is probably going to be an ice storm. We need it to be 200-300 miles SE of the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 21 minutes ago, JTrout said: Really hoping the Euro is on our side. The 12z runs today are the first set we should really start to put a lot of weight on. Energy just coming onto the west coast. If we lose the Euro.......I will start to lose a little hope. #Team Europe fyp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, bubbler86 said: Unfortunately we do not have any room for NW movement (snow) so the UK is probably going to be an ice storm. We need it to bee 200-300 miles SE of the GFS. Someone else just said it came pretty far NW too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTrout Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, bubbler86 said: The North American models shut this forum down. I agree if our European Allies do not come through it is cricket time. (Until the 18Z name, LOL). Mid Atlantic forum is crickets(compared to storm mode times) for a big storm incoming, obviously because it looks like a pure soaker for them. LSV folks could be next....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, paweather5 said: Yeah that's a pretty good shift for the worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Regardless of snowfall it would seem like I'm in one of the prime freezing rain accumulation areas. But all the maps seem to show way too much. NWS forecast for 0.10" while others upwards of over 0.5". Big difference there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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