anotherman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, Cashtown_Coop said: So the forecast for me is 1” of snow and 0.02” of ice. I’ll take the over Like I said, they basically are saying the same thing Horst is saying. RAIN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: So the forecast for me is 1” of snow and 0.02” of ice. I’ll take the over . I saw that forecast and thought it quite low. I thought we were past the days where NWS offices used the GFS for much 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Morning all! Ugh - I'm supposed to inform my company management today what to expect this weekend. Yay me... 1"-6" then ice then rain. Then wrapped up in a glacier from brutal cold. There. Easy. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Horst: No changes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Let’s enjoy the couple of inches of snow tonight. Then, for this weekend, the best models are trending colder with more snow & ice impacts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Horst: No changes... I have to say, I am a big fan of Horst and how he doesn't hype anything....ever. However, he made a post last night about the 18Z GEFS being aligned with the OP and that is not to be ignored. The GEFS always mirror the OP when you are getting close to an event. I know he knows way more than I'll ever know, but that just seemed like a reach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Horst: No changes... He must be riding the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 7 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Let’s enjoy the couple of inches of snow tonight. Then, for this weekend, the best models are trending colder with more snow & ice impacts. Speaking of that, the NWS said no WAA is being issued. Snow going to start flying today before rush hour but I suspect wet roads until later in the evening. N MD did go with a WAA though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 One thing is for sure about this storm...it is loaded with moisture and juiced. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 23 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: 6Z Nam back to its transferring scenario and we all get a big winter storm. In fact every model I looked at showed a similar scenario except.....drum roll...the GFS. The GFS has been changing stories ever 6-12 hours. I’m telling ya. GFS makes this sport tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, pasnownut said: I’m telling ya. GFS makes this sport tough. That’s why it’s being upgraded, but they do not even have enough confidence in the replacement to go with it full time yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 10 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: Speaking of that, the NWS said no WAA is being issued. Snow going to start flying today before rush hour but I suspect wet roads until later in the evening. N MD did go with a WAA though. The criteria is different in MD. CTP for tonight has 2 inches of snow for most of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 12 minutes ago, anotherman said: I have to say, I am a big fan of Horst and how he doesn't hype anything....ever. However, he made a post last night about the 18Z GEFS being aligned with the OP and that is not to be ignored. The GEFS always mirror the OP when you are getting close to an event. I know he knows way more than I'll ever know, but that just seemed like a reach. He also had 2- 4 inches on game day In November for most of us. Harrisburg got 8.8, just like the Euro showed for days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 13 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: He must be riding the GFS He’s a great met, but some on here take his forecast as absolute truth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: The criteria is different in MD. CTP for tonight has 2 inches of snow for most of us. Yea, I was not suggesting anything was amiss just reporting what I had read. In reality there is little support for anything over 2" except the HRDPS which bullseyes the West LSV with 3-5. Outside of micro climate forecasting, going for anything over 2" would be a weeine forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 19 minutes ago, Cashtown_Coop said: He must be riding the GFS One thing I can say with certainty is Horst is NOT following the GFS. In many, many years of following him I've never once heard him write or talk about the GFS. The only model he ever mentions is the Euro and that isn't often. I'm sure he's basing his forecast on what HE sees happening PLUS our climatology. Models to him are probably nothing more than guidance to consider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 He also had 2- 4 inches on game day In November for most of us. Harrisburg got 8.8, just like the Euro showed for days.With his focus mainly on Lancaster County, I have to lean more towards his outcome.I think we get a couple of inches of snow than a brief period of freezing rain and sleet. Then it’s an inch plus of rain.CAD looks very underwhelming on models (especially GFS).. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 7 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: He’s a great met, but some on here take his forecast as absolute truth. I'm guilty of that. By doing so I've found that I'm not let down nearly as much as following any other forecasts. He's not always right, but he's right more than many others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: One thing I can say with certainty is Horst is NOT following the GFS. In many, many years of following him I've never once heard him write or talk about the GFS. The only model he ever mentions is the Euro and that isn't often. I'm sure he's basing his forecast on what HE sees happening PLUS our climatology. Models to him are probably nothing more than guidance to consider. I don’t follow him personally. Does he only forecast for Lancaster County or for all the LSV? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Horst has based his entire prediction for this event on one thing: downstream blocking. And has that appeared anywhere? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 One thing I can say with certainty is Horst is NOT following the GFS. In many, many years of following him I've never once heard him write or talk about the GFS. The only model he ever mentions is the Euro and that isn't often. I'm sure he's basing his forecast on what HE sees happening PLUS our climatology. Models to him are probably nothing more than guidance to consider. And for us in Lancaster County, we’ve been on this ride before. If it is going to snow heavily in northern PA, there’s about a 90% chance we will be turning to rain.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Horst busted in November if I remember right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Horst has based his entire prediction for this event on one thing: downstream blocking. And has that appeared anywhere? Nope.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, Superstorm said: And for us in Lancaster County, we’ve been on this ride before. If it is going to snow heavily in northern PA, there’s about a 90% chance we will be turning to rain. . Bingo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, Atomixwx said: Horst has based his entire prediction for this event on one thing: downstream blocking. And has that appeared anywhere? Nope... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, Superstorm said: With his focus mainly on Lancaster County, I have to lean more towards his outcome. I think we get a couple of inches of snow than a brief period of freezing rain and sleet. Then it’s an inch plus of rain. CAD looks very underwhelming on models (especially GFS). . I agree that models may not show a cad signature but sometimes it’s best to use climo instead. LWX does a great job with this in their morn disco. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, Wmsptwx said: Horst busted in November if I remember right? Everyone busted in November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, Wmsptwx said: Horst busted in November if I remember right? He was too low like most others. He has a very conservative bias which I know and appreciate. I'd rather watch my numbers go up than go down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, anotherman said: Everyone busted in November. Yes sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, anotherman said: Everyone busted in November. It can happen again too. Local news surprisingly nailed November storm out this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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