pasnownut Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 out to 51, thermal profiles not so good IMO. Its early, but likely north if i were to guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: out to 51, thermal profiles not so good IMO. Its early, but likely north if i were to guess It looked questionable at 18Z as well until it started transferring to the southern vort. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: It looked questionable at 18Z as well until it started transferring to the southern vort. at 57 LP is 75miles sw of 18z but 700/850's went north out in front. It's got work to do if its gonna pull of something like 18z for us in the LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 LSV has lost the Nam for tonight. At least as far as snow is concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 Congrats Billtown. Man I wish i was still in college up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, bubbler86 said: LSV has lost the Nam for tonight. At least as far as snow is concerned. And the Canadian and Navgem? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 It lost the elongated look from 18Z and has a stronger SLP two states further North. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: And the Canadian and Navgem? The Navgem was not good earlier either. We need the convoluted, multiple low structure from the 18Z Nam to have it score for us here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, bubbler86 said: The Navgem was not good earlier either. We need the convoluted, mu7ltip-le low structure from the 18Z Nam to have it score for us here. Okay I wasn't sure but I did say last night that having it amped wasn't good. It tends to be very progressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 I am not staying up for it but the Euro tonight is a key where it comes to trends. The Nam changed but its 18Z depiction was not likely to happen anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Strange but the NAM snowfall map is much snowier than one would have expected so must include quite a bit of sleet. Congrats Carlisle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, bubbler86 said: I am not staying up for it but the Euro tonight is a key where it comes to trends. The Nam changed but its 18Z depiction was not likely to happen anyway. Unless the GFS pulls a switch-er-oo with the NAM I think I'll pass on the Euro tonight also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 13 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: LSV has lost the Nam for tonight. At least as far as snow is concerned. If this is wrong... I don’t want to be right ! The I-81 crew & north of that would take this & run ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, bubbler86 said: Strange but the NAM snowfall map is much snowier than one would have expected so must include quite a bit of sleet. Congrats Carlisle Holy moly....I just saw that map. Yeah...must be a ton of sleet to reach over a foot on the snow map. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 NAM has to be like 8” sleet. I can’t fathom that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, CarlislePaWx said: Unless the GFS pulls a switch-er-oo with the NAM I think I'll pass on the Euro tonight also. If we lose The UKMET & Euro, then it’s time to begin to worry. Most models since 0z last night have put the I-81 corridor & north into the 8-10 inch show range. The NAM tonight continues that idea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, canderson said: NAM has to be like 8” sleet. I can’t fathom that. LOL...would beat out VD 2007 for biggest sleet storm of my life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 CTP pretty darn bullish. I like where we are. Not staying up for the EURO so hopefully GFS can bring me some good dreams tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, CarlislePaWx said: Holy moly....I just saw that map. Yeah...must be a ton of sleet to reach over a foot on the snow map. Wow. The radar maps must be a bit misleading. They go in 3 hour increments and there is only decent snow in one of them...must be snowing hard at the start of the previous one and up until the end of the one after. Still grasping at straws to call this a good run... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, paweather said: CTP pretty darn bullish. I like where we are. Not staying up for the EURO so hopefully GFS can bring me some good dreams tonight. Yes, CTP has been confident on this for the last few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, bubbler86 said: The radar maps must be a bit misleading. They go in 3 hour increments and there is only decent snow in one of them...must be snowing hard at the start of the previous one and up until the end of the one after. Still grasping at straws to call this a good run... It’s also the very long range for the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahantango#1 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 I remember back in the80's we had a storm with about 3 inches of snow and it was supposed to turn over to rain and it didn't. We ended up with about 6-8 inches of sleet. Horrible to shovel! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, bubbler86 said: The radar maps must be a bit misleading. They go in 3 hour increments and there is only decent snow in one of them...must be snowing hard at the start of the previous one and up until the end of the one after. Still grasping at straws to call this a good run... They must be. When I saw that large area of plain rain I really thought that was it for me. Maybe not...yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, Blizzard of 93 said: It’s also the very long range for the NAM. No doubt. No matter what the NAM said it was just an interesting compare to the 18Z. Would have been more fun if it trended less amped vs. more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 We also have a couple of inches of snow tomorrow night to enjoy before the weekend storm begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, bubbler86 said: No doubt. No matter what the NAM said it was just an interesting compare to the 18Z. Would have been more fun if it trended less amped vs. more. The NAM tends to over amp especially in its long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: We also have a couple of inches of snow tomorrow night to enjoy before the weekend storm begins. NAM is showing less than 0.10" total qpf. That's drier than earlier runs. Not that I care whether I get 1" or 2" with the prospect of the weekend storm. One other thing I remembered about noteworthy sleet storms in my life. The 1993 superstorm was a huge sleet producer for me in north Jersey. After accumulating 13" of snow there was heavy heavy sleet for hours. Had to be 6" of sleet from that storm easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Nam isn't to kind to the LVS...Yuck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The NAM tends to over amp especially in its long range. Yea we are just living life on the edge here though...for the LSV and neighbors. The NAM had been coming in as one of the less amped models up until now. I think this run is very similar to the Icon from 18Z with warmer surface temps. Most of the southern tier of PA goes over freezing for 4-8 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 It's fun to look at the nam but it is borderline silly to even take it serious for the Saturday storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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