Bubbler86 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, JTrout said: The Icon shows 2-3 inches of precip over 2/3's of the state with freezing temps. That would be crazy Here is the snowfall map. These maps are just for posterity sake. If this were to play out many of us would not be on here posting about it since we would be trying to stay warm with no power. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTrout Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, bubbler86 said: Here is the snowfall map. These maps are just for posterity sake. If this were to play out many of us would not be on here posting about it since we would be trying to stay warm with no power. I would be looking at 8 inches of snow, couple inches of sleet probably, then a nice 1 inch coating of freezing rain, then a low of 8 monday morning. Sounds fun....... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 16, 2019 Author Share Posted January 16, 2019 12 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: Hour 90 of the 18Z Icon is nothing short of an all out Ice Storm. Temps in the mid 20's with Sleet and or FRZA falling. This is after a nice thump of snow. But look at 540 at 81 hrs. 50 to 75 mile shift to the south. Thermal profiles are what we need to watch as storm appears to be trending south. THATS how we win (for those facing changeover issues). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, JTrout said: I would be looking at 8 inches of snow, couple inches of sleet probably, then a nice 1 inch coating of freezing rain, then a low of 8 monday morning. Sounds fun....... We are moving toward the relatively rare 'Double Winter Advisory. We would have an active WWA for Thursday night at the same time as an active WSW for Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: But look at 540 at 81 hrs. 50 to 75 mile shift to the south. Thermal profiles are what we need to watch as storm appears to be trending south. THATS how we win (for those facing changeover issues). Yea there is no doubt we should be open for anything including an all snow scenario. I still think it interesting to discuss the apparent results of the current model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 16, 2019 Author Share Posted January 16, 2019 Here is the trend I'm trying to point out. 12z @ 93 18z @87 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Dramatic reversal after the 0Z rainstorm last night...almost back to the original snowier solution. Easier to see here on the zoom in... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, CarlislePaWx said: Dramatic reversal after the 0Z rainstorm last night...almost back to the original snowier solution. Easier to see here on the zoom in... I know I need to zoom in sometimes. I am actually working and posting some of this stuff at the same time so I get lazy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 16, 2019 Author Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, bubbler86 said: Yea there is no doubt we should be open for anything including an all snow scenario. I still think it interesting to discuss the apparent results of the current model. no doubt, and while I cant believe im typing this, I think you might actually have legs w/ an all snow arguement, given trends and enough time for appreciable changes in track/low structure. Personally, I'm rooting the elongated less wrapped up version, as its our way to clean snow (in LSV), or you can pop a coastal and we get snizzle during dryslot, but beats the heck out of plain rain. I'm even good for couple hours of pingers...you know snowpackdensifiers 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: no doubt, and while I cant believe im typing this, I think you might actually have legs w/ an all snow arguement, given trends and enough time for appreciable changes in track/low structure. Personally, I'm rooting the elongated less wrapped up version, as its our way to clean snow (in LSV), or you can pop a coastal and we get snizzle during dryslot, but beats the heck out of plain rain. I'm even good for couple hours of pingers...you know snowpackdensifiers RE: The Nam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 16, 2019 Author Share Posted January 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: Dramatic reversal after the 0Z rainstorm last night...almost back to the original snowier solution. Easier to see here on the zoom in... IF we can get another day of similar trends, us southerners might be seeing green. Still happy w/ where it has come (if it holds). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 16, 2019 Author Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, bubbler86 said: RE: The Nam. yeah, I saw it between stops. All snow. Man i wanna believe. Surely a nice turn in the last 24. IMO we can thank that arctic boundary above us for the southerly press of the whole shebangy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, pasnownut said: IF we can get another day of similar trends, us southerners might be seeing green. Still happy w/ where it has come (if it holds). Well I'd say collectively we're all doing much better than we were 24 hours ago. We have all the models heading in the general direction of a more frozen solution with the potential for less mixing heading progressively further south and away from us. Next question will be does the next GFS also head in the NAM direction?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 5 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: Well I'd say collectively we're all doing much better than we were 24 hours ago. We have all the models heading in the general direction of a more frozen solution with the potential for less mixing heading progressively further south and away from us. Next question will be does the next GFS also head in the NAM direction?? It has not started off well through 72. In fact through 84 the GFS is an all out rain storm again. New England Special. BUT the way it gets there is similar to the Icon just a massive difference in surface temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 16, 2019 Author Share Posted January 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: It has not started off well through 72. @78 540's back slightly NW. MSLP due east of 12z to southern tip of WVA. If it comes under, we should recover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTrout Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 7 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: It has not started off well through 72. Results are not good, the low is further south and east though at 84hrs.... Temps hit 50 in LSV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, pasnownut said: @78 540's back slightly NW. MSLP due east of 12z to southern tip of WVA. If it comes under, we should recover. We don't recover. The low right over top of us. The gfs might start catching on at 00z tomorrow night. I would not sweat it at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, JTrout said: Results are not good, the low is further south and east though at 84hrs.... Runs the low right over us or slightly East. Into the 40's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 16, 2019 Author Share Posted January 16, 2019 4 minutes ago, daxx said: We don't recover. The low right over top of us. The gfs might start catching on at 00z tomorrow night. I would not sweat it at all. Agreed. Wonky evolution between 78 and 90 IMO. To me it looks like it just has some "catching up" to do. LP thru 84 was well under us, and that to my eye is what is "wonky". edit - we lost 850's and below on this run and warm nose made deeper inroads to CTP. Wind is deep S fetch, so I get while an outlier, something we still need to consider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Man, if the gfs is wrong and caved to the euro..that will be an epic fail. Knowing our luck, this will be the time the GFS nails it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, pasnownut said: Agreed. Wonky evolution between 78 and 90 IMO. To me it looks like it just has some "catching up" to do. LP thru 84 was well under us, and that to my eye is what is "wonky". Yes this is what the gfs does. Now watch it be the final outcome. I highly doubt it will be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 16, 2019 Author Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, daxx said: Yes this is what the gfs does. Now watch it be the final outcome. I highly doubt it will be. we lost 850's and below on this run and warm nose made deeper inroads to CTP. Wind is deep S fetch, so I get while an outlier, something we still need to consider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 10 minutes ago, daxx said: Yes this is what the gfs does. Now watch it be the final outcome. I highly doubt it will be. Not sure it is much different than what the other models do since this is an elongated almost double barrel situation. It is not as much that the Low is moving wonky, the model is just keying on different areas of it at different panels. Makes it appear to go the wrong way at times. Some emphasize a coastal wave taking precedence while others, like the GFS, keep the flow coming from the southeast longer as they emphasize the northern piece. This is why the Icon shows the low going well south of us yet we still lose part of the column...the low is both south and north of us in my humble opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 So storm cancel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, canderson said: So storm cancel? The new GFS just started running so maybe it can uncancel it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Is the GFS drunk? Has the shutdown finally affected the mainframe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, bubbler86 said: The new GFS just started running so maybe it can uncancel it. Nope! Rainstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, daxx said: Nope! Rainstorm LOL. You saved me some time, thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, daxx said: Nope! Rainstorm May I ask, do you do the hobby stormvista subscription or is there something better? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 So at the moment we have 2 camps to choose from: UKIE + Euro + Icon + Nam + JMA = White or GFS = Wet I know which camp I'm in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now