Itstrainingtime Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, daxx said: I'm sure you will take the 12z icon. Snow, ice and some rain.North and west pounded! Thanks Brian. Good to hear! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, daxx said: I'm sure you will take the 12z icon. Snow, ice and some rain.North and west pounded! Verbatim I guess but it is phasing back in the Midwest so it eliminates the chances of a little or no phase system early in that run. Also does a retrograde or transfer vs. drive up into NY like yesterday's GFS. A solution like this, on game day, will make for a very hard forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BigBen89 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 ICON was horrible for SWPA. Absolutely horrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Personally I am going to hope the Icon is not our final solution. Driving rain with temps 32-35. 540 line is up near NY. Weekend front end "thump" would only be a maybe 4, 5 inches for LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 35 minutes ago, BigBen89 said: ICON was horrible for SWPA. Absolutely horrible. GFS actually shows rain for Thursday night in SW PA now...and parts of the LSV. Was not expecting that. 12Z is taking back some of our positive trends from last night. It has gone back into a phasing scenario, not as extreme as yesterday 12Z but not good for us, and we get a warm rain washing away any front end dump. Into the 40's for LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTrout Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 crankyweatherguy @crankywxguy 59m59 minutes ago crankyweatherguy Retweeted Spencer Beers I don't pay any attention to that back and forth model jumping critique. Creating trends that don't exist except in the construct of the modeling flip flops. If you want to sniff model trends, start with 0z models tonight onward, but maybe even 12z tomorrow as 1st anchor forward. crankyweatherguy added, Spencer Beers @beers56 Replying to @crankywxguy Cranky any merit in the south trend being disconnected from the phase D E. Horst, MU WIC @MUweather FollowingFollowing @MUweather More Replying to @crankywxguy Wise words, grasshopper! 7:09 AM - 16 Jan 2019 I always like to read Cranky's stuff and obviously trust Horst. Does anyone know if Cranky was a student of his or anything? I also posted this because its relevance to the emotions of model run to model run right now, when the experts aren't really taking anything seriously till tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 16, 2019 Author Share Posted January 16, 2019 13 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: GFS actually shows rain for Thursday night in SW PA now...and parts of the LSV. Was not expecting that. 12Z is taking back some of our positive trends from last night. looking at 12z it does have 4" line now down thru extreme SE Pa but track is NW. Not sure how to take that other than better front end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 I don't buy those GFS temps necessarily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 GFS throws surface back up to 40 at MDT at its warmest. It throws 32 line well up into northern PA. Throw it out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Very strange storm, the Mets are earning pay on this guy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 GFS @ MDT 2" tomorrow night. 3-4" front thump before changeover. That's it for my PBP...lol. I like what cranky had to say. We have to fight as hard as we can to not be emotionally invested in every model run...this far away still at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: GFS throws surface back up to 40 at MDT at its warmest. It throws 32 line well up into northern PA. Throw it out! If it did not almost exactly match the icon for surface features and heights, I would love to but other than surface temps those two runs look too similar unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Horst is saying we reach the mid 40s here in Lanco before the front arrives. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 16, 2019 Author Share Posted January 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: GFS throws surface back up to 40 at MDT at its warmest. It throws 32 line well up into northern PA. Throw it out! Yeah saw that. So much for trends. That's why like I've said before, its best to look from 10000 foot level as parsing all of these details can be slightly maddening (but fun) until we get inside 48-72 hrs. I get suckered in just like many, but 50/100 mile shifts while good are bad, are expected at this lead time IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, pasnownut said: Yeah saw that. So much for trends. That's why like I've said before, its best to look from 10000 foot level as parsing all of these details can be slightly maddening (but fun) until we get inside 48-72 hrs. I get suckered in just like many, but 50/100 mile shifts while good are bad, are expected at this lead time IMO. In this case, and I think you spoke about this last night, it is all about the phasing. Last night the models tended toward a strung out/separate WAA type situation and today they are beginning to phase back in the midwest. Whatever happens is surely not what the models show now but I guess I am looking for some type of trend away from the amplified solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 On to the UKIE and Euro... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Try to find some gems in the rough here....CMC/GEM is still close to a lesser phased solution. We are still in play here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 16, 2019 Author Share Posted January 16, 2019 6 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: In this case, and I think you spoke about this last night, it is all about the phasing. Last night the models tended toward a strung out/separate WAA type situation and today they are beginning to phase back in the midwest. Whatever happens is surely not what the models show now but I guess I am looking for some type of trend away from the amplified solution. CMC was better FWIW... still gives hope to SE camp (and mauls true CTP/North) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: Try to find some gems in the rough here....CMC/GEM is still close to a lesser phased solution. We are still in play here. CMC vs GFS at 90hr actually illustrates more of a difference in the thermal column. CMC's low pressure actually a tad further NW than the GFS at that frame but better front end snows. Looks like it has more of an attempt at a secondary coastal low too. My experience with these types of storms is typically that reality ends up being a bigger fight on p-type transition in the central counties and sometimes the LSV.. especially when theres a good frozen front end and some high pressure above us. Surface-925mb temps aren't easily routed in the ridge and valley region of central PA. This type of track suggests to me a potentially more extended period of icing in the AOO-UNV corridor and between I-80 & I-78 and west of I-81 in the Sus Valley. And I'm talking the track that the 12z guidance is putting up so far. But these regional tendencies don't typically show up on the global ops til pretty late in the game. With said regional tendencies in mind, this is the range and situation right now where using ensemble blends and putting more weight on those ops supportive of the general consensus via ensembles is probably the best move to get a rough idea on possible impacts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Mag not to be mby guy but you think we see sig icing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: CMC vs GFS at 90hr actually illustrates more of a difference in the thermal column. CMC's low pressure actually a tad further NW than the GFS at that frame but better front end snows. Looks like it has more of an attempt at a secondary coastal low too. My experience with these types of storms is typically that reality ends up being a bigger fight on p-type transition in the central counties and sometimes the LSV.. especially when theres a good frozen front end and some high pressure above us. Surface-925mb temps aren't easily routed in the ridge and valley region of central PA. This type of track suggests to me a potentially more extended period of icing in the AOO-UNV corridor and between I-80 & I-78 and west of I-81 in the Sus Valley. And I'm talking the track that the 12z guidance is putting up so far. But these regional tendencies don't typically show up on the global ops til pretty late in the game. With said regional tendencies in mind, this is the range and situation right now where using ensemble blends and putting more weight on those ops supportive of the general consensus via ensembles is probably the best move to get a rough idea on possible impacts. I also suspect that whatever is depicted on any given model, the surface temps of many posters here will struggle to turn this into plan rain (except the situation where the low goes west of PA...then we are into the 50's). Regardless of what trends show the word is that PA is in for a complicated winter storm. If you have read a few of my many posts the last few days you may have noticed I am hoping for a more snowy solution vs. trying to hold on to FRZA with 1/4" an hour rain rates so some of my posts are slanted that way. And yea on the CMC I noticed it was quite west but the 540 line stopped advancing between 90 and 96 when the coastal started to influence the situation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just read in the MA forum that the UK is holding tight to it's less phased solution and taking the LP into VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 11 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: Just read in the MA forum that the UK is holding tight to it's less phased solution and taking the LP into VA. It's also once again showing an ugly look at the end of it's run. Hopefully it's wrong. Sorry - that's the GFS long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: It's also once again showing an ugly look at the end of it's run. Hopefully it's wrong. The site where I am looking at the UK is a bit hard to make out things but it appears to keep the whole column below freezing for the whole state as it pertains to this weekend but a bit hard to read so hopefully someone posts the maps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Working from home this week so have time to scan through for these models...here is an overachiever for Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: It's also once again showing an ugly look at the end of it's run. Hopefully it's wrong. MJO has quietly been forecast to make another round through 4-6, though probably not at the magnitude or longevity of December. I wonder if that may be starting to have an affect on the long range stuff a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: MJO has quietly been forecast to make another round through 4-6, though probably not at the magnitude or longevity of December. I wonder if that may be starting to have an affect on the long range stuff a bit. And Mag, you are the MJO expert for our forum and others as well so it is always interesting to read your thoughts on it. It is fun (or can be for some) to play the model flipping game some days but the MJO forecasting is hard core Met stuff. In this case if it stays in 4-6 too long it is going to ruin our supposed big hurrah to winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 26 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Mag not to be mby guy but you think we see sig icing? Possibly, although your in a good spot to see a lot of snow before any changeover as things stand attm. You and 2001kx are looking the best out of the bunch right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Here's your Horst response Carlisle: E. Horst, MU WIC@MUweather (2/2) The 2nd storm looks to track directly over us, which usually means a variety of precip types. While a 12"+ of snow is likely from northern PA into interior New England. Locally, it's not yet set in stone, but... E. Horst, MU WIC@MUweather Replying to @MUweather (2+) ...I can see a thumping of snow & sleet to start (perhaps a few inches), then a change to rain (pockets of freezing rain?), and a brief change back to snow before ending midday Sunday. The coldest air of the season--a true #ArcticBlast --then drops in for a 2-day visit. 42m Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Yoda posted them. Obviously a better ending than the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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