Blizzard of 93 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 By the way, the Euro only gave most of us only about 1 inch for the Thursday night appetizer storm. My point is, you only need to deduct 1 inch from the map above to get the weekend total snow amounts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 That map looks good to me.lock it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 The 0z EPS has re-joined the party! Here are the EPS & Control snow maps. Also, here is the EPS low cluster map for 12z Sunday which shows the improvement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 16, 2019 Author Share Posted January 16, 2019 Morning. 6z's so far.... GFS - ticked back NW Fv3 - looking better and slightly SE Icon - ticked back SE and has LP traversing MD line but still trouble as 850's too warm. summary...looks like last nights better looks may have legs. I'm feeling good to start the day. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 5 hours ago, CarlislePaWx said: Well, now I have to "try" to go to bed and lay there waiting for my meds to overcome all this excitement. What a day this was. Hopefully tomorrow is not the same rollercoaster. It will be very interesting to hear Horst's interpretation after declaring a major rainstorm (for Lanco vicinity) was coming. I'm not ratting on him. Just curious to see how much of a believer he is in tonight's new data. See you all in the morning. Thanks again, daxx! Based on the overnight model runs, he won't change a thing. He has not and will not change thoughts and/or forecasts because models suddenly depicted a different solution. As he says often it's meteorology and not modelology. He WILL change his forecast if he sees that the atmospheric setup and the players on the field has changed. I feel like I should speak for him since I'm the one who always posts his thoughts. BTW - I hope you all do realize that I hope he's wrong... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Based on the overnight model runs, he won't change a thing. He has not and will not change thoughts and/or forecasts because models suddenly depicted a different solution. As he says often it's meteorology and not modelology. He WILL change his forecast if he sees that the atmospheric setup and the players on the field has changed. I feel like I should speak for him since I'm the one who always posts his thoughts. BTW - I hope you all do realize that I hope he's wrong... I think he will change his thought is he decides the phased solution is losing momentum. If a piece of energy holds back in the South Central US and becomes the focus we are going to get at least a plowable front end dump and could stay below freezing the whole event. Like usual a complete gamut of possibilities. At least, meteorological wise, there is a way we can still get a lot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, bubbler86 said: I think he will change his thought is he decides the phased solution is losing momentum. If a piece of energy holds back in the South Central US and becomes the focus we are going to get at least a plowable front end dump and could stay below freezing the whole event. Like usual a complete gamut of possibilities. At least, meteorological wise, there is a way we can still get a lot of snow. Agree with you completely. If that scenario becomes a reality that is a game changer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 hour ago, pasnownut said: Morning. 6z's so far.... GFS - ticked back NW Fv3 - looking better and slightly SE Icon - ticked back SE and has LP traversing MD line but still trouble as 850's too warm. summary...looks like last nights better looks may have legs. I'm feeling good to start the day. 6Z NAM is going to give us snow as well. I am not a big extrapolating person but it is unphased/south enough that at the worst it is going to be similar to GFS as to the first waves trajectory. The snownista's are liking the trends. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Brian (daxx) thank you very much for the time you're spending here providing awesome analysis and PBP. I know how much you know and how good you are at all of this and it's about time you share your knowledge with the rest of us! Enjoy the rest of your time up in the 'Dacks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 For me, Horst is best in our area. He understands PA climatology (particularly LSV) better than anyone else.When he starts to honk, that’s when I know things are looking good.With that being said, if we are moving away from a phased solution, this does change the ball game.I knew that UKMET was giving me a pause for a reason.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 16, 2019 Author Share Posted January 16, 2019 5 minutes ago, Superstorm said: For me, Horst is best in our area. He understands PA climatology (particularly LSV) better than anyone else. When he starts to honk, that’s when I know things are looking good. With that being said, if we are moving away from a phased solution, this does change the ball game. I knew that UKMET was giving me a pause for a reason. . He sure does understand the LSV, but my point is that we need to figure out what kind of storm were playing with and where it wants to play, and has little/nothing to do w/ the LSV, and everything to do w/ storm track/evolution, 500 mb pattern, thermal profiles in advance thereof. Once we have that figured out, then he can boil it down for what he thinks the LSV will get and why. and for that i'd trust him over most. (And i know he's quite capable of both). He IS one of the best, but we have to look at it from 2 different angles right now, the backyard isnt one of them....yet. Hope you see what I'm driving at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 16, 2019 Author Share Posted January 16, 2019 And I know there are many saying that there's no way we can hold this storm in a good spot, but when most models are playing a/ a high 30's to low 40's HP in NNY or southern Quebec in mid January, as long as it has some staying power, i really dont care much about NAO...blah blah blah. It has and can work when you have so much cold right above and west of it. Consider it our "anchor baby"...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, pasnownut said: And I know there are many saying that there's no way we can hold this storm in a good spot, but when most models are playing a/ a high 30's to low 40's HP in NNY or southern Quebec in mid January, as long as it has some staying power, i really dont care much about NAO...blah blah blah. It has and can work when you have so much cold right above and west of it. Consider it our "anchor baby"...lol There's truth in the drum you're beating. As crappy as the pattern is right now there IS a way to victory here. Might not be clean, 100% pow but we CAN get a significant winter storm with timing and the strength of the moving pieces playing out just right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Euro snow totals. Monday is going to be cold. 11-14 for the high. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 10 minutes ago, pawatch said: Euro snow totals. Monday is going to be cold. 11-14 for the high. Borderline Hec's or top of the line MEC's for Northern and Western LSV. Uncanny how the storms always know where I81/I78 is as to contour lines. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 16, 2019 Author Share Posted January 16, 2019 4 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: There's truth in the drum you're beating. As crappy as the pattern is right now there IS a way to victory here. Might not be clean, 100% pow but we CAN get a significant winter storm with timing and the strength of the moving pieces playing out just right. Oh it wont be clean, but I'll take dirty snow any day of the week and 2x on Sunday's. I've said it a million times, weather is like golf, they don't ask how you scored, they ask what you scored Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 MAG wins in Bellwood if that verifies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 16, 2019 Author Share Posted January 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: MAG wins in Bellwood if that verifies. roadtrip anyone..... We can convert his garage to party central (assuming he has one) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 5 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: Borderline Hec's or top of the line MEC's for LSV. Uncanny how the storms always know where I81/I78 is as to contour lines. For SOME of the LSV...as is, that maps depicts 4"-8" down my way. That's SECS in my book for us Lanco peeps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 16, 2019 Author Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: For SOME of the LSV...as is, that maps depicts 4"-8" down my way. That's SECS in my book for us Lanco peeps. __________________________ Signature (print) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: For SOME of the LSV...as is, that maps depicts 4"-8" down my way. That's SECS in my book for us Lanco peeps. I fixed it right after I typed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 10 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: Borderline Hec's or top of the line MEC's for Northern and Western LSV. Uncanny how the storms always know where I81/I78 is as to contour lines. Another tick south and we’re all in the game. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 After typing the HECS/MECS statement I was surprised I did not get scolded even for that. Everyone has their own version of what a HECS is. To me anything above 15" is a HEC's and anything above 10" is a MEC's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 16, 2019 Author Share Posted January 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: After typing the HECS/MECS statement I was surprised I did not get scolded even for that. Everyone has their own version of what a HECS is. To me anything above 15" is a HEC's and anything above 10" is a MEC's. even so, northern LSV is in play for M/H lower is in play for the letter S It's a win for many, regardless. i think it fair to say that most of us don't expect to be in the jackpot (except Cashtown - he's a snow hog ) and our group is reasonable with expectations. Thats why its cool in here, cause there's not too much bickering if/when MBY doesnt get ALL of the goods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: After typing the HECS/MECS statement I was surprised I did not get scolded even for that. Everyone has their own version of what a HECS is. To me anything above 15" is a HEC's and anything above 10" is a MEC's. It's an interesting yet pointless conversation because as you said, it's each person's interpretation. I only responded to you initially because in my eyes 4"-8" is significant...but nothing beyond that. (and yes Nut - I would gladly sign for that right now ) My thinking: 4"-8": Significant 8" - 16": Major 16" - 32": Historic (I waver on this one a little bit as I've had by my count 13 of these in my lifetime, or 1 every 4 years) 32" and above: Biblical Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 23 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: Borderline Hec's or top of the line MEC's for Northern and Western LSV. Uncanny how the storms always know where I81/I78 is as to contour lines. This would be a top 5 storm for Pittsburgh verbatim. As it is, I’d glsdly take half of what that shows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: 16- 32": Historic (I waver on this one a little bit as I've had by my count 13 of these in my lifetime, or 1 every 4 years) 32" and above: Biblical Hasn't there been one 16-32 in each of the last three winters? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, KPITSnow said: This would be a top 5 storm for Pittsburgh verbatim. As it is, I’d glsdly take half of what that shows. It is REALLY time that you get crushed! I get so sick of the NYC and BALT/DC crowds whining about snow when western PA has been left out of the game for years. Some of those people are clueless and spoiled because recent history has been overly generous to them. I can't think of a sub forum that deserves it more than you. Good luck, rooting like heck for you! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, Atomixwx said: Hasn't there been one 16-32 in each of the last three winters? Lol I didn't have one last winter, but that was kind of my point. I'm being a little too soft on that designation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I didn't have one last winter, but that was kind of my point. I'm being a little too soft on that designation. It makes a good precursor to talk of climate change (but not right now) and how HECs from our childhood are becoming more of a MECs at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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