daxx Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: flatter look at 500 at 90. We'll know soon enough Much better front end! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 I think the uptick from tonight (and GFS does look much more interesting regardless) is that the NAM has given is the path to snow. I like having the Nam be the odd one out that is the long shot for a win. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Great front end thump 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, daxx said: Much better front end! Is it going to allow that first wave to cede to the second one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 16, 2019 Author Share Posted January 16, 2019 540's slightly south of 18z surface shows better cad signal for frontside action Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 16, 2019 Author Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, daxx said: Much better front end! I guess we take it in the front or back....wherever we can get it..... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, pasnownut said: I guess we take it in the front or back....wherever we can get it..... Is the GFS continues to evolve (like the CMC did earlier) to the first wave basically dying out, we are game on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 16, 2019 Author Share Posted January 16, 2019 1 minute ago, bubbler86 said: I think the uptick from tonight (and GFS does look much more interesting regardless) is that the NAM has given is the path to snow. I like having the Nam be the odd one out that is the long shot for a win. and if it helps ones sleep pattern, the NAM and GFS show similar progression w/ critical thickness/500 flow. Its all we really can ask for at this juncture IMO. I know it'll help me sleep. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 16, 2019 Author Share Posted January 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: Is it going to allow that first wave to cede to the second one? yes. Verbatim its a MUCH better evolution for LSV and surrounding areas, as 850's are notably more SE. At the worst, it offers more frozen opps before we flip back and less rain. Now whether one believes it.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: Is the GFS continues to evolve (like the CMC did earlier) to the first wave basically dying out, we are game on. Are you referring to the first wave as the Thursday night system or what was to be 2 waves within the weekend storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 5 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: Are you referring to the first wave as the Thursday night system or what was to be 2 waves within the weekend storm? The first wave of the two wave weekend system. The GFS (and CMC earlier) both drive it up to about our latitude before the second piece of energy, trailing behind, takes lead man and heights crash probably never allowing us to get above freezing (in the LSV). Note the LP in Alabama and the now weaker LP up near Pitt. EDIT-And is that a Blue H sitting up in Eastern Canada while all of this takes place? :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 16, 2019 Author Share Posted January 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: Is the GFS continues to evolve (like the CMC did earlier) to the first wave basically dying out, we are game on. G....didnt we see this last week........... hmmmmmm ok..i'm done being a smartass (as I'm not sure I believe it), but IF it continues to show up, it will say something for the "atmospheric memory voodo", as I chatted about that w/ Bob n some others in the MA forum the other day, as I dont see why this is happening, but has been showing up on the models. It basically is tearing the main deal into pieces within the baroclinic zone and just has multiple vorts ride the boundary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 16, 2019 Author Share Posted January 16, 2019 whlle one shouldnt look at snow maps, I ask you all to take a peek at the 18/0z and you will see how much the frozen progression came south. DO NOT look at the numbers, just the R/S line, and ok the appreciable uptick in precip that is not wet. Thats the takeaway for the GFS. I'd sign right now, and not even care about how much more could happen. It's a win for the entire forum and our KPIT friends that come here to muck it up w/ us cool cats. Heck I didnt look, but I bet the MA forum is goin batsh!t at this as they now have a play....for the next 6 hours anyway. Gnight all. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 One thing I do not like about the GFS is our friend from Pitt who was just posting bit ago....he needs that first wave to minor out a bit earlier to get him snows and he is so right in that Pitt keeps getting screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Watch it turn into a strung out mess lol... weather always keeps us guessing it's why we love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, Wmsptwx said: Watch it turn into a strung out mess lol... weather always keeps us guessing it's why we love it. To me a strung out mess or even nothing is better than 1-2" of rain in the middle of January. I would rather it snow or be nice so I can enjoy the weekend. :-) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 16, 2019 Author Share Posted January 16, 2019 2 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: One thing I do not like about the GFS is our friend from Pitt who was just posting bit ago....he needs that first wave to minor out a bit earlier to get him snows and he is so right in that Pitt keeps getting screwed. Yeah man, but hey, go look like i suggested, the move helps his region as well, and gets him closer to the goods. One step at a time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, pasnownut said: Yeah man, but hey, go look like i suggested, the move helps his region as well, and gets him closer to the goods. One step at a time. I knew your goodnight was not really a goodnight! :-) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 16, 2019 Author Share Posted January 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Watch it turn into a strung out mess lol... weather always keeps us guessing it's why we love it. That would be fine by me. You dont likely jackpot as much, but I dont taint nearly as much as that would flatten the flow and make more of a bowling ball kinda deal. I"m game if you are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 16, 2019 Author Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, bubbler86 said: I knew your goodnight was not really a goodnight! :-) Ok, that mighta jacked me up a bit. Fingers and eyes are tired. . Fun night and many more to come...we hope. Ol man out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 I am headed out soon my self but here is the snow map out to early next week. It includes Thursday snow, front and back end weekend snow. Good to see N Maryland getting into the 6-8" game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Tbh you guys like it much more than most and only like 3 of us live outside of scpa so I'm okay with it...maybe not 2001kx though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KPITSnow Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 11 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Yeah man, but hey, go look like i suggested, the move helps his region as well, and gets him closer to the goods. One step at a time. I seriously considering visiting my friend in new castle. He is a snow lover too, and already said I could stay haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 3 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Tbh you guys like it much more than most and only like 3 of us live outside of scpa so I'm okay with it...maybe not 2001kx though. I think you would both be 8-12" just using the GFS verbatim. I do feel remorse when enthusiastically posting something which might not be good for others. I sometimes forget this is not an LSV forum. The GFS change is astounding whether it is stay worthy or not. I could not fathom it moving this far from its afternoon run into Erie. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 GFS at 84 was the key to the evolution. You could see the differences. That 1039 H in Canada positioned nicely just moved too quick East. A good front end thump and back end snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Santa comes to pay a visit for the North Pole end of January. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 22 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: I think you would both be 8-12" just using the GFS verbatim. I do feel remorse when enthusiastically posting something which might not be good for others. I sometimes forget this is not an LSV forum. The GFS change is astounding whether it is stay worthy or not. I could not fathom it moving this far from its afternoon run into Erie. Lol, dude you're fine it's a weather board...you are supposed to root for that! Very interesting storm to track for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 6 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: Santa comes to pay a visit for the North Pole end of January. Sub-500 HEIGHTS over us...incredibly rare. That would translate to thicknesses below 480 which easily would rival Jan 1994 cold. Daytime highs would remain below zero in our area if that depiction were to come true. Unbelievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 Just now, CarlislePaWx said: Sub-500 HEIGHTS over us...incredibly rare. That would translate to thicknesses below 480 which easily would rival Jan 1994 cold. Daytime highs would remain below zero in our area if that depiction were to come true. Unbelievable. Yea, no snow in that pattern but newsy worthy weather. Worry about the homeless both humans and animals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 16, 2019 Share Posted January 16, 2019 20 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: Santa comes to pay a visit for the North Pole end of January. Snowstorm in Orlando/Tampa? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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