pasnownut Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 You asked...I deliver. The solstice is upon us. It’s that time we’ve all been waiting for..... Snow time!! Here’s to a great winter! Keep it real....keep it fun. Don’t piss off the mods... Chat amongst yourselves. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 Thanks for getting this started! Here is some good news to start this thread. The 12z GFS gives us 2 snow storms. The first one arrives for New Year’s Eve & drops 3-4 inches of snow for CTP. The second one arrives on January 2nd & puts down another 2 or 3 inches of snow. This would be a great way to ring in the New Year! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 3 hours ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Thanks for getting this started! Here is some good news to start this thread. The 12z GFS gives us 2 snow storms. The first one arrives for New Year’s Eve & drops 3-4 inches of snow for CTP. The second one arrives on January 2nd & puts down another 2 or 3 inches of snow. This would be a great way to ring in the New Year! Woo hoo....Bring it on!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 22, 2018 Author Share Posted December 22, 2018 Just posted this in the MA forum. As some/most know we are finally seeing a SSW event unfolding (sudden stratospheric warming). IE its warming up top of the globe, and when this happens, the cold drops south (called downwelling) and where it sets up, can be quite helpful (like neg nao/ao). Here is a 3d animation. I've got lots to learn, but find this fascinating. Hope you enjoy. This is the PV up where santa's working feverishly FYI. Nut 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 22, 2018 Share Posted December 22, 2018 Well, I am in Central PA for the week. When I got to Danville yesterday, it was 65 degrees with a thunderstorm. Looks like many of us might be able to eek out a white Christmas with this minor system coming through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 If we score a White Christmas out of this month, some of you should shut up forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 The latest GEFS run today continues to look good for snow chances for CTP. Most of the snow on this run arrives between New Year’s Eve & the first week of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 For tonight’s Christmas Eve Eve event, The 12z NAM ‘s brought better precip down to the I-81 corridor of the LSV & were also are slightly colder than recent runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 23, 2018 Author Share Posted December 23, 2018 25 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: For tonight’s Christmas Eve Eve event, The 12z NAM ‘s brought better precip down to the I-81 corridor of the LSV & were also are slightly colder than recent runs. Of course. I will see the snow clouds to the north...while I watch the rain fall. #tease Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 1 hour ago, pasnownut said: Of course. I will see the snow clouds to the north...while I watch the rain fall. #tease I am torn on this one. I think we are going to get a lot of snow in January and having absolutely no snow in December (MDT/LSV area) would make the turn about even more drastic/noteworthy. If we get a few flakes to end the year it is going to end our once in a lifetime no snow in December streak for what would amount to nothing. Personally give me 2" or more otherwise nothing at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 NWS point and click gives me 1-2 inches of snow overnight... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 The differences between CTP & Mt. Holly are a little interesting along the border of the forecast offices. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 If I see ANY snow on the ground tomorrow morning I will consider it the greatest miracle since Lake Placid 1980. If you're saying "huh" to that, I'm referring to the Miracle on Ice. (USA defeating the Soviet Union in ice hockey during the Olympic Games) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 I don’t think it will take a miracle.... The 12z Euro does show the snow north of the LSV, however the precip max again is over the LSV to the Lehigh Valley. Most of the precip falls after dark into 850 temperature air of less than -3. I think some of us could see the car tops & grassy surfaces covered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 For the area below the turnpike it is fairly warm at the moment, with cloud cover already setting in, to hope for accumulating snow tonight. Upper 40's at most stations. Dec may end up close to 5 degrees above normal at this rate if we get another late week torch next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 7 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: For the area below the turnpike it is fairly warm at the moment, with cloud cover already setting in, to hope for accumulating snow tonight. Upper 40's at most stations. Dec may end up close to 5 degrees above normal at this rate if we get another late week torch next week. The first half of December was below normal. The second half of November was way below normal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 2 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: The first half of December was below normal. The second half of November was way below normal. The whole month of December is now almost 1.5 degrees above normal at MDT. Here is the climate data. Hopefully our patience pays off for January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 23, 2018 Share Posted December 23, 2018 1 hour ago, bubbler86 said: For the area below the turnpike it is fairly warm at the moment, with cloud cover already setting in, to hope for accumulating snow tonight. Upper 40's at most stations. Dec may end up close to 5 degrees above normal at this rate if we get another late week torch next week. Yep. I can't ever remember the Susquehanna running this high heading into Christmas. A testament to just how wet it has been. We're getting to the time of year when the river runs high due to snow melt or ice jams. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 Well, was worried about warm surface temps maybe affecting any accumulation of snow falling and it turns out it's too warm to even snow. Pretty much all rain here (light) with the moon more than partially visible through the clouds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 4 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Well, was worried about warm surface temps maybe affecting any accumulation of snow falling and it turns out it's too warm to even snow. Pretty much all rain here (light) with the moon more than partially visible through the clouds. Hope we score the first week of January cause if not we are in for a long snow drought Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 1 hour ago, MAG5035 said: Well, was worried about warm surface temps maybe affecting any accumulation of snow falling and it turns out it's too warm to even snow. Pretty much all rain here (light) with the moon more than partially visible through the clouds. Cold enough aloft for snow here, but surface temps too warm at the moment (35 degrees) to accumulate, so it's just white rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 5 hours ago, canderson said: Hope we score the first week of January cause if not we are in for a long snow drought If we don’t score the first week of January, the potential pattern should get even better toward mid January & onward according to just about every long range & seasonal model. Anyway, We should have chances at snow by the first week of January. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 Thanks to the 8.8 inches of snow in November at MDT, Harrisburg is above normal snow for the season to date. According to CTP’s daily summary, MDT only averages 4.1 inches of snow through December 23rd. Even if it doesn’t snow until the first week of January & beyond, Harrisburg will still be in good shape to have another chance at an above average snowfall season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 The 12z GFS delivered 2 nice Christmas presents with snow events for CTP for this Sunday & again on New Year’s Day into the 2nd day of January. The maps below show the 2 events & then the first storm individual total & also the 2 event combined total. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 Reading Horst's latest discussion this afternoon, he is calling for a wild and active January with lots of...rain and some snow. While there might be a 4-7 day period of cold, wintery weather he doesn't see winter locking in through the month. Merry Christmas to each of you. Enjoy this special season and let's get ready for what we do best...more rain later this week! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 Recorded 0.10" of precipitation for last nights white rain to pad the yearly total a bit. If it would have been colder we'd have gotten somewhere around an inch of snow. As for the Sunday and New Year's snow, since I will be sitting in a truck stop in SoCal hopefully soaking up some sunshine, I hope the storms deliver for those of you who want it. In my case, I will probably see rain in IL, MO, and OK, and perhaps some white stuff along I-40 in NM and AZ. Hopefully nothing big as I have a tight time frame to get out to Los Angeles for Sunday morning delivery. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 9 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Reading Horst's latest discussion this afternoon, he is calling for a wild and active January with lots of...rain and some snow. While there might be a 4-7 day period of cold, wintery weather he doesn't see winter locking in through the month. Merry Christmas to each of you. Enjoy this special season and let's get ready for what we do best...more rain later this week! Personally I am leaning toward any toss up storms switching over to being more snow than rain as we go into 2019. The pattern is going to be better and climatology wise we do not need perfect patterns that have blocking, great MJO values, etc......over running and Miller B's can drop a quick 6-12" at any point. Lets face it, we probably do not want the "polar vortex" sitting near us because 1) It is too damn cold. 2) Suppression becomes so much more likely. After this blow torch of the last almost 2/3 of December the pattern change, whether to just a better pattern or a great one, is going to supply us with some fun tracking. We may need one opportunity (maybe the cutter this Friday) to fall on its sword and set the table for the next opportunity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 Very Light flurries now in Marysville ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted December 24, 2018 Share Posted December 24, 2018 27 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Reading Horst's latest discussion this afternoon, he is calling for a wild and active January with lots of...rain and some snow. While there might be a 4-7 day period of cold, wintery weather he doesn't see winter locking in through the month. Merry Christmas to each of you. Enjoy this special season and let's get ready for what we do best...more rain later this week! Every good seasonal model & most long range pro forecasters have very much above average snow & cold for the rest of this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted December 24, 2018 Author Share Posted December 24, 2018 6 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: Personally I am leaning toward any toss up storms switching over to being more snow than rain as we go into 2019. The pattern is going to be better and climatology wise we do not need perfect patterns that have blocking, great MJO values, etc......over running and Miller B's can drop a quick 6-12" at any point. Lets face it, we probably do not want the "polar vortex" sitting near us because 1) It is too damn cold. 2) Suppression becomes so much more likely. After this blow torch of the last almost 2/3 of December the pattern change, whether to just a better pattern or a great one, is going to supply us with some fun tracking. We may need one opportunity (maybe the cutter this Friday) to fall on its sword and set the table for the next opportunity. Agreed. Pattern looks to be better as we turn the Calendar. Your right....we also dont need suppression depression. Cold enough is fine. Merry Christmas to all my CTP Peeps....and any other lurkers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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