CarlislePaWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 It even tacks on another 0.5" at the end for 9.5" total. Not too shabby. Haven't looked at what's going on during the changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: Well one encouraging sign is that there is a great mega thump in the first six hours of the storm with MDT picking up over 6" in 6 hours before a changeover. Wasn't expecting that. Also encouraging to me is the less amped look with the eventual primary being in NC on the GFS,. The damage is already done at that point for temps but still a step toward a solution that could be major vs. a slop fest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 One thing I can say...of all the model snow maps this is the weirdest looking distribution of any so far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Geesh, GFS has the low centered near the VA/NC line at hour 78 and it has p-types as rain all the way to IPT. I doubt that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 CMC :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 So...now the Canadian starts to reverse itself and go more frozen? Sheesh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: Geesh, GFS has the low centered near the VA/NC line at hour 78 and it has p-types as rain all the way to IPT. I doubt that. I still contend most models are showing two lows with a transfer taking place to the one in NC....just too late on the GFS. Right, wrong, or in between just my reasoning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 JMA looks promising at 72 hours with a nice CAD signature to keep us frozen for a good period so some good trends tonight despite the NAM jumping the LP quite a bit north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 JB mentioned earlier today that the front end of this weekend storm with heavy precip at the onset could resemble that of our November storm. CTP this week also referenced the November storm as well . I could live with another 8.8 inches of snow if we matched the November storm this weekend. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 UKIE from another forum looks good. I don't have maps yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 30 minutes ago, CarlislePaWx said: So...now the Canadian starts to reverse itself and go more frozen? Sheesh. Yes, good runs by the GFS & Canadian. Hopefully the UKMET & Euro keep it going later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Verified UKMET is a crush for everyone north of 40N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 It goes south of PA off the Delmarva. :-) Just some added mixture into this recipe. 12" plus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, paweather5 said: Thanks for posting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, paweather said: Verified UKMET is a crush for everyone north of 40N Thanks for that. More good news. Big picture things are trending toward that LP staying south of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, bubbler86 said: Thanks for that. More good news. Big picture things are trending toward that LP staying south of us. Sure. I feel like this is still a good first part thump, ice/rain/ then backend snow that will be in 8-12" range. OK sissy not staying up for you, be good to your brother. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: Thanks for that. More good news. Big picture things are trending toward that LP staying south of us. I think if the low does just that and doesn't press into PA or get really close to the mason dixon line that things will eventually work out for the majority of the forum in favor of mostly the frozen stuff. We don't really have a mixed bag of guidance with some models cutting west or through PA vs going south. We're getting down to resolving the details of p-type, which of course is always the hard part with these types of systems. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, MAG5035 said: I think if the low does just that and doesn't press into PA or get really close to the mason dixon line that things will eventually work out for the majority of the forum in favor of mostly the frozen stuff. We don't really have a mixed bag of guidance with some models cutting west or through PA vs going south. We're getting down to resolving the details of p-type, which of course is always the hard part with these types of systems. You and bubbler have called it phased versus a low riding the underneath and to the south of PA. This is quite interesting. Model camps are all over place. Forget the NAM right now. Last night's 0z GFS told me that the HP in Canada will be strong and that is the key IMO. Great guys. Plenty on the table. More importantly snow will be flying tomorrow night and then again on Saturday just how long Saturday for us in LSV. Good trends again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 16 degrees in in Harrisburg as the high Monday. Come on Artic press down prior a bit don't let the southern stream take everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, paweather5 said: Beautiful! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Well I was sucked in, didn't think I would stay up for the EURO. Anyone here have PBP and again thank you DAXX for last night being on vacation. If not I will go to NYC forum who is still talking about Hurricane Sandy :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather5 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, paweather5 said: Nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, paweather5 said: That would be like the Central PA and Pittsburgh forums combined dream come true if that happened. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Gosh these other sub forums LOL. Primary to Pittsburgh? I love it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 This is hardly a miller b scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 14 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: That would be like the Central PA and Pittsburgh forums combined dream come true if that happened. That is a beautiful UKMET map !!! Wow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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