Atomixwx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, Superstorm said: Nope. . Just now, Itstrainingtime said: Nope... Exactly the answer everybody knew. So, Horst is then issuing a prediction based off of climatology and not forecast guidance. I got interrupted by an Amber Alert last night, but it sounded like Joe Calhoun at WGAL was giving a similar opinion to that of Horst when he was doing a Facebook Live video, even to the point where he kinda went off on some guy who brought up the NWS. Models are just guidance. If that was all there was to weather, absolute dopes would be weathermen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 The problem with primarily using climatology and analogs is that we are not necessarily on the same playing field as we have been in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Here is the EPS ensemble mean & Control Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Horst will either look very good or very bad with this call...no real middle ground with this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 11 minutes ago, anotherman said: The problem with primarily using climatology and analogs is that we are not necessarily on the same playing field as we have been in the past. I was thinking about this last evening. Many of us on here are model followers and then weather spotters when the event happens. Frankly we can (and quite often do) forecast snow storms, for our local area, better than professional mets and NWS offices. But when the snowstorms end we go back to our jobs and do not have to forecast the mundane 250 days a year that the mets do. It is then that they have to use climatology and analogs a lot more as there are hundreds of sunny days each year. Each of these snow storms is unique in some manner and requires leaning on guidance because any analogs are questionable at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 35 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: That’s why it’s being upgraded, but they do not even have enough confidence in the replacement to go with it full time yet. yeah, I read that. Isnt that just funny sh!t right there. Sounds like 2020 whatever it is....goes live Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 33 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: He’s a great met, but some on here take his forecast as absolute truth. ^^^^ This Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 The NAVGEM caved to the southern vort premise. Again just following trends here but that is a good trend. Navgem would probably be all snow but less QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 21 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: Exactly the answer everybody knew. So, Horst is then issuing a prediction based off of climatology and not forecast guidance. I got interrupted by an Amber Alert last night, but it sounded like Joe Calhoun at WGAL was giving a similar opinion to that of Horst when he was doing a Facebook Live video, even to the point where he kinda went off on some guy who brought up the NWS. Models are just guidance. If that was all there was to weather, absolute dopes would be weathermen. That's exactly what I said on the previous page. Models are nothing more than guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 One thing I'm very concerned about is what happens in the wake of the storm. I often feel like roads icing over is way overrated but i could see how this setup turns into a nightmare. All of that QPF followed by a sudden, hard freeze? That is an aspect I don't think we want to overlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 28 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: He was too low like most others. He has a very conservative bias which I know and appreciate. I'd rather watch my numbers go up than go down. but.....there's no fun in low numbers. You know we live in the go big or go home era. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, pasnownut said: but.....there's no fun in low numbers. You know we live in the go big or go home era. DT and JB have that quote posted on their bathroom mirrors. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: One thing I'm very concerned about is what happens in the wake of the storm. I often feel like roads icing over is way overrated but i could see how this setup turns into a nightmare. All of that QPF followed by a sudden, hard freeze? That is an aspect I don't think we want to overlook. TWC made it a point to address flash freeze last night. That is a real possibility. A lot of people going to see the storm subside midday and head out for Championship Sunday and struggle to make it home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 21 minutes ago, Blizzard of 93 said: Here is the EPS ensemble mean & Control man, i'm telling ya. shift that storm track 30 miles south and I'd be giddy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 8 minutes ago, pasnownut said: ^^^^ This Well...I realize there's some foolishness in doing so. My previous point was that by listening to him he has saved me a lot of heartache over the years. We've been on here chumming it up for 8 or 9 years now. I've been following his forecasts for over 30 years. I do listen and value others certainly, MAG is a great example. I just put weight into what Horst says because he knows Lanco climate like no one else. No one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: DT and JB have that quote posted on their bathroom mirrors. its all about bandwidth traffic for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, pasnownut said: its all about bandwidth traffic for some. Truth... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: Well...I realize there's some foolishness in doing so. My previous point was that by listening to him he has saved me a lot of heartache over the years. We've been on here chumming it up for 8 or 9 years now. I've been following his forecasts for over 30 years. I do listen and value others certainly, MAG is a great example. I just put weight into what Horst says because he knows Lanco climate like no one else. No one. I know and agree. My inner weenie is just pissed that he is more right than wrong. Sure he has the occasional bust, but like you, I've been following him for decades. He is not a band wagon kinda forecaster, and because of that, they are usually the better ones, as they have a more metered approach w/ all of the reasoning previously mentioned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, pasnownut said: but.....there's no fun in low numbers. You know we live in the go big or go home era. I'd much prefer to have a forecast of 1-3 and get 6 then have a forecast of 4-8 and get 2... Watching number go up at game time is exhilarating. Watching them being revised downward is depressing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Well...I realize there's some foolishness in doing so. My previous point was that by listening to him he has saved me a lot of heartache over the years. We've been on here chumming it up for 8 or 9 years now. I've been following his forecasts for over 30 years. I do listen and value others certainly, MAG is a great example. I just put weight into what Horst says because he knows Lanco climate like no one else. No one. Thumbs up!!. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 The 06z Euro moved north some leading to much less ice. It even takes 850 above state college for some time. I would really be careful with snow maps I think sleet is really contaminating them for some areas. Just my opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, daxx said: The 06z Euro moved north some leading to much less ice. It even takes 850 above state college for some time. I would really be careful with snow maps I think sleet is really contaminating them for some areas. Just my opinion. Read several mets who've said the same thing. People see 10" painted over their house and assume it's snow, when it reality a whole crap load of it is sleet. I'm telling people at work to expect 1" - 3" here before the flip. Right now I see no reason to change that, and if i do I will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 Wierd i know, but I'm fine w/ sleet-anything frozen as long as we can avoid plain rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Read several mets who've said the same thing. People see 10" painted over their house and assume it's snow, when it reality a whole crap load of it is sleet. I'm telling people at work to expect 1" - 3" here before the flip. Right now I see no reason to change that, and if i do I will. I think that is a great call! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, pasnownut said: Wierd i know, but I'm fine w/ sleet-anything frozen as long as we can avoid plain rain. Agreed 100%. After the rapid freeze, the snowpack left will lock in and stick around Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 12Z NAM may show some 3" totals for this evenings snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 This weekend's event is basically VD2007 but probably less now/more sleet. I'd at this moment guess a thump of 2-4" before it turns to sleet/zr. Probably going to be a metric ton of power outages. Which is bad because Monday will be subzero for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 12 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: 12Z NAM may show some 3" totals for this evenings snow. Except for some strange snow hole in northern York county, it stuck with a general 1-2" snowfall. I think radar looks nice to the west though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Some places south of Rte 22 may do better tonight than this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 So far, @48 NAM looks less amped. Thats what we need down here, but will it be enough.... stay tuned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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