JTrout Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, Superstorm said: Kind of surprised for Lancaster County. . 1/4 ice potential. Also the NW 1/3 could be nasty and bottom SE not so much. I think they have to side with the worse half Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Seems overzealous but what do I know. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 240 PM EST Thu Jan 17 2019 PAZ036-056>059-063>066-180345- /O.EXA.KCTP.WS.A.0001.190119T1800Z-190120T2100Z/ Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York- Lancaster- Including the cities of Chambersburg, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, Pottsville, Lebanon, Carlisle, Gettysburg, York, and Lancaster 240 PM EST Thu Jan 17 2019 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Snow followed by heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches, with localized amounts up to 10 inches in higher elevations possible. Ice accumulations of one tenth to one quarter of an inch are possible. * WHERE...Lower Susquehanna Valley. * WHEN...From Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions. Significant reductions in visibility are possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service State College PA 240 PM EST Thu Jan 17 2019 PAZ010>012-017>019-024>028-033>035-041-045-046-049>053-180345- /O.EXA.KCTP.WS.A.0001.190119T1800Z-190120T2100Z/ Elk-Cameron-Northern Clinton-Clearfield-Northern Centre- Southern Centre-Cambria-Blair-Huntingdon-Mifflin-Juniata-Somerset- Bedford-Fulton-Northern Lycoming-Southern Clinton- Southern Lycoming-Union-Snyder-Montour-Northumberland-Columbia- Including the cities of St. Marys, Ridgway, Emporium, Renovo, DuBois, Clearfield, Philipsburg, State College, Johnstown, Altoona, Huntingdon, Mount Union, Lewistown, Mifflintown, Somerset, Bedford, McConnellsburg, Trout Run, Lock Haven, Williamsport, Lewisburg, Selinsgrove, Danville, Sunbury, Shamokin, Bloomsburg, and Berwick 240 PM EST Thu Jan 17 2019 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Snow, heavy at times, followed by heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations of 9 to 13 inches, with localized amounts up to 17 inches, and ice accumulations of around one tenth are possible. * WHERE...Through Central Pennsylvania. * WHEN...From Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 @Wmsptwx Why do you always go quiet when you're in the bulls eye for our forum? You always have plenty to say when you're on the outside looking in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Seems overzealous but what do I know.URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENational Weather Service State College PA240 PM EST Thu Jan 17 2019PAZ036-056>059-063>066-180345-/O.EXA.KCTP.WS.A.0001.190119T1800Z-190120T2100Z/Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York-Lancaster-Including the cities of Chambersburg, Newport, Harrisburg,Hershey, Pottsville, Lebanon, Carlisle, Gettysburg, York,and Lancaster240 PM EST Thu Jan 17 2019...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGHSUNDAY AFTERNOON...* WHAT...Snow followed by heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches, with localized amounts up to 10 inches in higher elevations possible. Ice accumulations of one tenth to one quarter of an inch are possible.* WHERE...Lower Susquehanna Valley.* WHEN...From Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon.* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions. Significant reductions in visibility are possible.Don’t underestimate our glacier threat followed by a bit of rain which will do nothing but entomb everything Sunday as the temperature plummets . Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, Superstorm said: Kind of surprised for Lancaster County. . Me too - thought for sure Lancaster and York would be left out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Yes sir! 2" - 5" of snow, which means my call for you is pretty much squarely in the middle. Lol. The verbiage of the watch is fairly dramatic especially when it limits the mention of plain rain at least so far. PAZ036-056>059-063>066-180345- /O.EXA.KCTP.WS.A.0001.190119T1800Z-190120T2100Z/ Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York- Lancaster- Including the cities of Chambersburg, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, Pottsville, Lebanon, Carlisle, Gettysburg, York, and Lancaster 240 PM EST Thu Jan 17 2019 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Snow followed by heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches, with localized amounts up to 10 inches in higher elevations possible. Ice accumulations of one tenth to one quarter of an inch are possible. * WHERE...Lower Susquehanna Valley. * WHEN...From Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions. Significant reductions in visibility are possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTrout Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, CarlislePaWx said: Lol. The verbiage of the watch is fairly dramatic especially when it limits the mention of plain rain at least so far. PAZ036-056>059-063>066-180345- /O.EXA.KCTP.WS.A.0001.190119T1800Z-190120T2100Z/ Franklin-Perry-Dauphin-Schuylkill-Lebanon-Cumberland-Adams-York- Lancaster- Including the cities of Chambersburg, Newport, Harrisburg, Hershey, Pottsville, Lebanon, Carlisle, Gettysburg, York, and Lancaster 240 PM EST Thu Jan 17 2019 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON... * WHAT...Snow followed by heavy mixed precipitation possible. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 5 inches, with localized amounts up to 10 inches in higher elevations possible. Ice accumulations of one tenth to one quarter of an inch are possible. * WHERE...Lower Susquehanna Valley. * WHEN...From Saturday afternoon through Sunday afternoon. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Plan on difficult travel conditions. Significant reductions in visibility are possible. Maybe they are putting all their marbles on the ICON haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 That forecast LOL. I wish the local sports book took bets on weather. I'd put $50 on McConnellsburg, Mount Union, Lewistown, and Mifflintown not coming close to that 9-13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 I'm going to lay this out there and say that with so many storms in the past there is a clear north trend in the days proceeding it. Often, just before onset there is a step back. Let's will this bad boy a little bit further south on tomorrow's guidance. (weenie handbook rule #6547) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 That would confirm Myers' convo with Reyno in that video. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Also, I promised to will last Saturday's storm north and failed hard. Don't put your faith in me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTrout Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, Itstrainingtime said: I'm going to lay this out there and say that with so many storms in the past there is a clear north trend in the days proceeding it. Often, just before onset there is a step back. Let's will this bad boy a little bit further south on tomorrow's guidance. (weenie handbook rule #6547) At the casino I like to play roulette, you should never bet against a run of red or black. What do I do? Bet against the trend...........I don't normally win. haha However, I am in your camp!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 5 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I'm going to lay this out there and say that with so many storms in the past there is a clear north trend in the days proceeding it. Often, just before onset there is a step back. Let's will this bad boy a little bit further south on tomorrow's guidance. (weenie handbook rule #6547) I see unfortunately absolutely nothing keeping it from lifting further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Meanwhile, snow echoes aloft noted on radar entering our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, canderson said: I see unfortunately absolutely nothing keeping it from lifting further north. I mean, eventually the pole is there to call it "south." 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, canderson said: I see unfortunately absolutely nothing keeping it from lifting further north. Less phasing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTrout Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, canderson said: I see unfortunately absolutely nothing keeping it from lifting further north. Me either...I'm channeling my inner weenie here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, JTrout said: And there she is. Carlisle, I'm liking my call... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Doing some heavy scrutinizing of 12z model data, since we're getting down to the short range with our weekend event. Looked pretty hard at the major models thermal columns comparing GFS, EURO and NAM at 850mb and 925mb levels. The GFS is on it's own thermally compared to the Euro/NAM despite similar tracks and heights with the 850 and 925mb lows. GFS might be broader and further into PA with the 925mb low but the point is that the GFS is way warmer aloft. Now I will say the 850 low track is a bit NW than you'd want to see for heavy snow in the LSV and south central counties (focus more on north central and northern tier) on all three. However I continue to think that even if it does rain in the LSV it's going to be after an extended period of snow/mixed precip. The exception could be the southern tier below the turnpike in the LSV SE of I-81 but even there I'm not fully convinced of any kind of an extended rain event.. although there it likely will change to plain rain for a time unless guidance starts shifting the other way some in the short term (entirely possible). If the surface low did end up on or breaching the M/D line that also introduces the possibility of getting slotted anyways when it gets too warm in the far southern tier. With the temp discrepancy on the GFS an example is hour 66 for the 12z guidance today (which is the warmest frame before the storm starts going to the coast and rapidly bringing the very cold air in). At the 925mb level, Harrisburg is on the 0ºC line on both the NAM and Euro, while on the GFS it is at +6ºC (!!). It should be noted that the GFS gave most of the LSV a nice thump of snow regardless. But I can't support low level temps that warm with the setup. While not an ideal alignment we do have a high up north and there absolutely is arctic air available. I have to side with colder guidance on that regard. I would imagine it might be a reason that CTP has seemed very bullish on the wintry potential of this event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Is Horst waffling to a colder scenario? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, bubbler86 said: Is Horst waffling to a colder scenario? He's been calling for a "few inches" of snow locally all week and still is. He has lowered his expected temperatures however, and is hitting ice pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, Itstrainingtime said: He's been calling for a "few inches" of snow locally all week and still is. He has lowered his expected temperatures however, and is hitting ice pretty good. And by waffling I did not mean disrespect so I should say softening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTrout Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: Is Horst waffling to a colder scenario? His verbiage leaves the door open, not locked in yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTrout Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 If Lancaster, York, Berks, and Adams gets painted pink(3-6) tomorrow on his second call. Then I will happily watch the radar on Saturday and watch the battle of cold vs warm. 30 mile shift....that's all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 8 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: And there she is. Carlisle, I'm liking my call... Haha. If his depiction played out precisely then it looks like my backyard would be between 3.3 to 3.5. We. Will. See. I liked the fact that he was acknowledging that <100 miles was the difference between 1" and 12". Now where have we seen that possibility before? Seems like this state falls in the battleground many, many times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Also the Susquehanna here in Harrisburg has started to build ice for the first time this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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