sauss06 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 26 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: Listen, don't judge your nanny by what she likes to do when you're not around. Her teeth weren't lost in any outdoor wind incident, believe me. Also, I don't discriminate on age. She said fifty bucks is fifty bucks. That's a ton of scratch offs. Oh, and Nanny's weird shit runs in the family, if you catch my drift. you fooker i'm crying here. canderson, that wind gust was pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 10, 2019 Author Share Posted January 10, 2019 50 minutes ago, sauss06 said: you fooker i'm crying here. canderson, that wind gust was pretty impressive. omg...just burst out laughin (dear lord i apologize). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 52 minutes ago, sauss06 said: you fooker i'm crying here. canderson, that wind gust was pretty impressive. Turns out it knocked out my vinyl fence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 MAG, the overnight Euro was horrible for PA but do you still believe this will naturally pop/expand north a bit or is that high just too strong and in the wrong position? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 I often don't say much about wind, but holy crap...the entire office building I work in has been shaking this morning. I think we're getting stronger gusts today then we've gotten during high wind warnings in the past... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Thinking that it's about time for us folk above I-80 to start looking toward 18-20th. NWS was never to bullish on this storm heading north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 42 minutes ago, canderson said: MAG, the overnight Euro was horrible for PA but do you still believe this will naturally pop/expand north a bit or is that high just too strong and in the wrong position? I think the high is in a pretty good spot but we have issues to overcome in terms of the features in the pattern. The active Pac pattern undercuts the western ridge as this thing blossoms and it gets pushed east and thus we have an amplification problem. With that, the storm has generally been progged to "peak" in the midwest where the highest snow totals have been showing up in esp MO and IL. If we could slow the pattern down and amplify, we would have no problem pressing a solid event into our region even with just the southern stream wave. But instead we press the storm east and force secondary development that has nothing for the high to the north or confluent flow to the NE. Probably going to have to get all the players fully on the field and this storm initiated off the Rockies to see where we're at with getting this to come north a bit. The overnight Euro was really messy at 500mb while the GFS for now was a bit more defined with the shortwave. For us we are likely going to live and die with whatever initial warm advection snows make it through the area before the coastal low develops unless there is a pretty sold shift north in the short term. If there is a pretty robust precip shield from that, we'd probably be fine and at least score some kind of an advisory event (Sus Valley criteria) with the cold air in place and good ratios. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 20 minutes ago, pawatch said: Thinking that it's about time for us folk above I-80 to start looking toward 18-20th. NWS was never to bullish on this storm heading north. All three of us lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CarlislePaWx Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Peak gust here at 7:02 AM was 37 mph. This was the strongest wind gust I have recorded since April 4, 2018 when I had a gust to 46 mph. It was also only the third highest gust recorded in the past year at my station. Combination of these gusty winds and temps around freezing feels nasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Weekend event is looking about as hot as Roseanne Barr. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Y'all are on fire today...co workers probably think I'm losing my mind laughing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 9 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: Weekend event is looking about as hot as Roseanne Barr. Ha! Yea it's barely worth tracking - 1" snow over 20 hours or so? I mean, any snow falling is good snow but watching someone in Virginia get 5-6" again will hurt. Let's hope the fabled upcoming pattern doesn't bust like that one in December! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 11 minutes ago, canderson said: Ha! Yea it's barely worth tracking - 1" snow over 20 hours or so? I mean, any snow falling is good snow but watching someone in Virginia get 5-6" again will hurt. Let's hope the fabled upcoming pattern doesn't bust like that one in December! I agree...and if we get skunked during the 1/20 - 1/23 time frame it will doubly hurt. Long range models have been banging for a biggin' for days and we need that to go woof and not poof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 4 hours ago, Wmsptwx said: All three of us lol +1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 Horst going for a big Coating to 2" for most of us in the LSV. More south and southwest. Less north and east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 We have to be in Philly at noon Sunday so honestly I'm a bit glad this will be a non-event for the most part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 52 minutes ago, 2001kx said: +1 Lol you me and pawatch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 2 hours ago, canderson said: We have to be in Philly at noon Sunday so honestly I'm a bit glad this will be a non-event for the most part. *We* don't have to be ANYWHERE. This isn't Russia (yet). You don't have to do anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 10, 2019 Share Posted January 10, 2019 LSV folks should really keep open to the possibilities of a moderate snow. 2 to 4" type. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard of 93 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 hour ago, bubbler86 said: LSV folks should really keep open to the possibilities of a moderate snow. 2 to 4" type. Yes, most models keep the LSV & south central Mountains of CTP in the game with 2-4 inches of snow this weekend. We should be in a good location to max out on good ratios. Here is the 18z Kuchera ratio GFS today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 I logged in this morning and saw no new posts for 12 hours including no 3:00am maps from Blizzard of 93 and that told me everything I needed to know. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Latest EURO: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 14 minutes ago, Itstrainingtime said: I logged in this morning and saw no new posts for 12 hours including no 3:00am maps from Blizzard of 93 and that told me everything I needed to know. An actual look at overnight and 6z guidance would have shown some improvement overall with getting precip into central and LSV locations, esp on the Euro. I fell asleep early last night or I would’ve posted about it. Right now it’s looking like a general 1-3” snowfall under I-80 with some possibility of 4-5” in the southern tier (esp west). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 1 minute ago, MAG5035 said: An actual look at overnight and 6z guidance would have shown some improvement overall with getting precip into central and LSV locations, esp on the Euro. I fell asleep early last night or I would’ve posted about it. Right now it’s looking like a general 1-3” snowfall under I-80 with some possibility of 4-5” in the southern tier (esp west). After I commented I did see that almost all 6z guidance came in either further north and/or juicier...interested to see what happens. Certainly looks like DC metro is in line for a nice little snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, MAG5035 said: An actual look at overnight and 6z guidance would have shown some improvement overall with getting precip into central and LSV locations, esp on the Euro. I fell asleep early last night or I would’ve posted about it. Right now it’s looking like a general 1-3” snowfall under I-80 with some possibility of 4-5” in the southern tier (esp west). Thanks for your thoughts. The south central counties have been in the .25”+ qpf, what ratios are you thinking. 15/1ish ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Horst sticking with C-2" for the LSV. Seems right to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 Thinking Adams county is place to be, further east seems to dry up on most models. Also, weird storm...usually seeing stripe of winter storm warnings just west is good old fashion bowling ball...this guy just kinda dies out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 2 minutes ago, Wmsptwx said: Thinking Adams county is place to be, further east seems to dry up on most models. Also, weird storm...usually seeing stripe of winter storm warnings just west is good old fashion bowling ball...this guy just kinda dies out. Yep, at least in my general local area this has a South Mountain special written all over it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 11, 2019 Share Posted January 11, 2019 According to a post in the Philly thread JB likes 3"-6" at MDT. Maybe this will be the one time this winter he's right. Probably not. Time will tell. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 11, 2019 Author Share Posted January 11, 2019 Cashtowns gonna jackpot ....again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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