lpaschall Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, pasnownut said: So far, @48 NAM looks less amped. Thats what we need down here, but will it be enough.... stay tuned. I agree and LP is a tick farther south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, lpaschall said: I agree and LP is a tick farther south. DP's in the low to mid 20's when snow starts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, lpaschall said: I agree and LP is a tick farther south. @54 998 while 6z was 1001mb. that will make a difference. Just noise? I think its still resolving what energy it wants to play off of. verbatim, not sure that helps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lpaschall Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, pasnownut said: @54 998 while 6z was 1001mb. that will make a difference. Just noise? I think its still resolving what energy it wants to play off of. verbatim, not sure that helps. I think at this time frame we have to start relying more on the features showing in the meso's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Nam has gone back to is 0Z look of keeping the northern vort the primary...unfortunately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, lpaschall said: I think at this time frame we have to start relying more on the features showing in the meso's. they should start gaining weight as they are coming into range. We arent going to like what weight they are pushing around at 12z though. Measured in buckets. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, pasnownut said: they should start gaining weight as they are coming into range. We arent going to like what weight they are pushing around at 12z though. Measured in buckets. Simply not enough blocking above to have the thermals deal with a sub 1000 low running across the mason-dixon. This is a plane jane rain storm with a little frozen at the front for the LSV if that happens. The TT snowfall map still shows Cumberland county getting a foot of "snow". LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atomixwx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 So, how much water equivalent is this going to spread out, and is a flood to ice jam situation possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: Simply not enough blocking above to have the thermals deal with a sub 1000 low running across the mason-dixon. This is a plane jane rain storm with a little frozen at the front for the LSV if that happens. The TT snowfall map still shows Cumberland county getting a foot of "snow". LOL. I don't like it one bit but I totally agree with you... Well, scratch that. i think frozen precip might be a little more than a "little". I could see several hours of snow>sleet>freezing rain. But I do think over half of it down our way is pure liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTrout Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 5 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: Simply not enough blocking above to have the thermals deal with a sub 1000 low running across the mason-dixon. This is a plane jane rain storm with a little frozen at the front for the LSV if that happens. The TT snowfall map still shows Cumberland county getting a foot of "snow". LOL. Only two frames of snow through your area on that run, has to be sleet and crap. 1 foot in 6 hours would be epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: So, how much water equivalent is this going to spread out, and is a flood to ice jam situation possible? There isn't much ice to jam is there? If we get 2"-3" of QPF I'd think flooding is a concern particularly along streams and creeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 We get to play this game all again late next week BTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 4 minutes ago, Atomixwx said: So, how much water equivalent is this going to spread out, and is a flood to ice jam situation possible? It's basically plain rain - no ice to jam anywhere. It's a creek flooding issue with 2.5" rain over 24 hours. In mid January. Kill me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, canderson said: It's basically plain rain - no ice to jam anywhere. It's a creek flooding issue with 2.5" rain over 24 hours. In mid January. Kill me. Disagree. I think a lot of it is sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 3 minutes ago, JTrout said: Only two frames of snow through your area on that run, has to be sleet and crap. 1 foot in 6 hours would be epic. Yea that was why I was smiling. It showed a similar evolution to the primary last night and still put a foot down for the northern LSV but Mag posted a more accurate map showing it was really only a couple inches. Apparently TT snowfall maps have an issue near changeover lines. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lpaschall Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 The NAM has been oscillating between runs and moving the frozen precip line north and south for the past 24 hours. Lets hope we start seeing a southerly trend with the NAM... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 Booking a room at the Heartbreak Hotel. Posted for fun....not validity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, lpaschall said: The NAM has been oscillating between runs and moving the frozen precip line north and south for the past 24 hours. Lets hope we start seeing a southerly trend with the NAM... It is quite simple to my eyes...it keeps changing where it wants to put the focus of the lowest pressure falls. If it keeps it north then Northern Mid-Atlantic stay with a strong south win almost the entire event where the better solutions showed the southern vort being the more primary feature and changing the orientation of our winds as it pulled under us allowing the CAD to win out. DP's are great as the event starts so just a matter of how long we see flow from the south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Booking a room at the Heartbreak Hotel. Posted for fun....not validityA lot of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 2 minutes ago, lpaschall said: The NAM has been oscillating between runs and moving the frozen precip line north and south for the past 24 hours. Lets hope we start seeing a southerly trend with the NAM... If there is any pause to this, its exactly that. Every 6hrs LP placement is up and down like a yoyo. That doesnt have much sensible affect on the outcome, but its fair to say that its still figuring things out. LP still below us is good. Our HP that was on earlier runs seems to have scooted and THAT is a concern. I thought arctic boundary would save us, but those that suggest no blocking will be our demise, may end up right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 11 minutes ago, pasnownut said: Booking a room at the Heartbreak Hotel. Posted for fun....not validity Imagine people throwing maps like this on social media today. Someone sees it on Facebook or wherever, lives in the Harrisburg area, and is now expecting 15" of snow. It ends up giving weathermen a bad name. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Icon is going to have a much larger front end snow dump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wmsptwx Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 I truly feel for Mets on this one, huge bust potential all over PA.....fun to follow though for same reasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTrout Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 Just now, bubbler86 said: Icon is going to have a much larger front end snow dump. Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 I believe this NAM map removes the sleet factor. What a difference S&E of 81... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 That's why I don't ride the models from run to run. Take a look at what they are showing, as they are just a piece of the puzzle. And then form an opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 5 minutes ago, JTrout said: Yep Icon is very similar to the 6Z Nam FWIW. The LP falls move South (well transfer really) and much of PA never gets above freezing. You can actually watch the orientation of the air flow change using the 2M temps maps mid storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jns2183 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 I’d wager Harrisburg sees about 2”-4” of snow, a whole lot of sleet & freezing rain, some rain for a couple hours (maybe), then the attic air turning everything everywhere into a solid glacier. . Pro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted January 17, 2019 Author Share Posted January 17, 2019 6 minutes ago, bubbler86 said: Icon is going to have a much larger front end snow dump. DUDE.....If I could only spreckenzie, I'd be yellin hail Germany That is just a beatdown....fur us as well. Bigtime front end on that puppy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 17, 2019 Share Posted January 17, 2019 1 minute ago, Jns2183 said: I’d wager Harrisburg sees about 2”-4” of snow, a whole lot of sleet & freezing rain, some rain for a couple hours (maybe), then the attic air turning everything everywhere into a solid glacier. . Pro That's a good safe call right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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