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Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

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13 minutes ago, AfewUniversesBelowNormal said:

EPO is positive.. I'm not sure how that would work. 

Indices mean nothing in the southeast, it's all a crapshoot.

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FV3 brought the boom yet again. It’s mostly, if not all, ZR/IP for NC/SC but here’s just an idea of the wedge strength 

310B4561-51B5-4734-8CCF-DD4E52D9D1E9.thumb.gif.9803e7ab246ca6e9b6d4af6d548f1cf1.gif

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6z GFS backed off slightly but still has the idea. FV3 still shows a significant storm. 

Here's RAH:

As the high moves offshore it will move into a better position for in-situ damming and moisture will approach from the west as a disorganized wave of low pressure moves in. Isentropic lift increases significantly after 00z Monday as the first real chances for more significant precipitation in the long term begin and increased frontogenesis occurs along our northern periphery. Rain chances will remain through the end of the period and everything is expected to be liquid at least through 00z Wednesday but many details will need to be ironed out regarding this system over the next week.

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36 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Lol at the FV3....

 

 

fv3p_asnow_neus_41.png

Bummer, I'm in the snow hole and only get 12"..... :P

It did lead the way for the December storm. I would really like to see more model agreement. GFS is trying but still not there. Lets see what the 12z runs bring. 

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19 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

Bummer, I'm in the snow hole and only get 12"..... :P

It did lead the way for the December storm. I would really like to see more model agreement. GFS is trying but still not there. Lets see what the 12z runs bring. 

Would love to see the Euro get on board but it's way to far north...

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Winter is on its dying breath folks, enjoy the 80's tomorrow. It does look to get wet again next week and nasty cold rain likely for escarpment areas..

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1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said:

Would love to see the Euro get on board but it's way to far north...

There's been storms where its had to play catch up in the past, but it (and other models) should give us pause in getting excited right now. Again, lets see what the 12z runs say. 

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41 minutes ago, wncsnow said:

Winter is on its dying breath folks, enjoy the 80's tomorrow. It does look to get wet again next week and nasty cold rain likely for escarpment areas..

Hey, stop busting bubbles around here! lol

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5 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

The 12z run is even crazier!! Biblical ice into SC!

You mean FV3 because I'm not seeing squat for the SE on 12z gfs run yet

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Folks I know it's nice to have the indices in our favor but there not the gospel it's always threading the needle and we all knew a warm up would occur at some point at least it's February but to write off winter is a suckers bet I'm she'll be back probably another blackberry winter wouldn't surprise me anyway Cary on....

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1 minute ago, McDowell_Weather said:

Folks I know it's nice to have the indices in our favor but there not the gospel it's always threading the needle and we all knew a warm up would occur at some point at least it's February but to write off winter is a suckers bet I'm she'll be back probably another blackberry winter wouldn't surprise me anyway Cary on....

Cary on?  :)

Maybe for Marion, but down here in the flat lands it's coming to a close soon.

"blackberry winters" are the end-of-April/early-May. Not really winter just a few bleak cool days and near frost chilly nights to draw up and dry the blackberry blooms, nicely readying them for the coming early summer fruit production

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1 minute ago, CaryWx said:

Cary on?  :)

Maybe for Marion, but down here in the flat lands it's coming to a close soon.

"blackberry winters" are the end-of-April/early-May. Not really winter just a few bleak cool days and near frost chilly nights to draw up and dry the blackberry blooms, nicely readying them for the coming early summer fruit production

Lol I know what they are and people south and east of 85 knows it takes more than just threading the needle lol 

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GFS-FV3 now with 4-5 consecutive runs of a significant winter storm for the CAD favored areas of NC/SC/N GA.  150 hrs out...  So hard to trust this model though. :mellow:

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5 minutes ago, jjwxman said:

GFS-FV3 now with 4-5 consecutive runs of a significant winter storm for the CAD favored areas of NC/SC/N GA.  150 hrs out...  So hard to trust this model though. :mellow:

Yeah, had the super bowl storm for about 3-4 runs! The GFS is slowly moving in the FV3 directions!  E nice to get Euro heading that way

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7 minutes ago, jjwxman said:

GFS-FV3 now with 4-5 consecutive runs of a significant winter storm for the CAD favored areas of NC/SC/N GA.  150 hrs out...  So hard to trust this model though. :mellow:

Well, they got this week's 'warming' right at 150hrs out so there's that. :arrowhead:

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What if the FV3 beats the odds and ends up right with a CAD storm only to have other guidance converge with only a couple days left before IceMageddon? Looks like Canadian Ensembles as well as GEFS increased on their Ice potential at 12z..been a boring winter. At least this is fun again for another 4-5 hours

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26 minutes ago, WarmNose said:

What if the FV3 beats the odds and ends up right with a CAD storm only to have other guidance converge with only a couple days left before IceMageddon? Looks like Canadian Ensembles as well as GEFS increased on their Ice potential at 12z..been a boring winter. At least this is fun again for another 4-5 hours

Still IMO, looks like a bad ZR event, esp. for foothills of NC, upland SC, and piedmont...will be interesting to see how this goes.  I'd rather skip out on a bad ice storm

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Thinking the FV3 is overdoing the high strength and the duration of it.  If it ends up weaker, like I suspect it will, then it needs to end up being quite a bit farther south, which I don't think is possible given the pattern.

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46 minutes ago, Cold Rain said:

Thinking the FV3 is overdoing the high strength and the duration of it.  If it ends up weaker, like I suspect it will, then it needs to end up being quite a bit farther south, which I don't think is possible given the pattern.

Yep. Other models are trending towards it but not enough. I think central VA up through the MA have a decent shot.   

Of course I'm still rooting for the FV3.... 

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