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Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

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4 minutes ago, mackerel_sky said:

30th is going to be our moneymaker!

Not outside the mountains

2 minutes ago, griteater said:

Yeah the GFS looks pathetic for Sunday,  but the 18z FV3 turns the corner with the wave in the gulf and has some phasing and produces some good late-blooming snow with the SE coastal low

xD8a6K5.gif

Bet on overrunning

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Late bloomers are so depressing for basically the entire southeast lol. Nothing I hate more than seeing the potential, having the temps and everything, and then the storm just passes by before even getting started.

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6 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Late bloomers are so depressing for basically the entire southeast lol. Nothing I hate more than seeing the potential, having the temps and everything, and then the storm just passes by before even getting started.

Speak for yourself. Lot of downeast NC guys and even central NC back to Triad can do well with late bloomers. Fact its prefered for several posters

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Just now, NCSNOW said:

Speak for yourself. Lot of downeast NC guys and even central NC back to Triad can do well with late bloomers. Fact its prefered for several posters

I am, just like everyone else on this board lol. Fact is late bloomers are bad for the overwhelming majority of the southeast.

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Of course it’s not bad for everyone. I never said that. Simply stated from a statistical standpoint, as in percentage of the Southeast to get snow, late bloomers are sad for most in the southeast especially with conditions being ripe for snow but just getting no moisture transport. But this board tends to pertain mostly to the Carolinas so not surprised at the response. 

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Want to see the PV trend west like the FV3 is doing.  If this wave is going to dig this far south, we're going to need a full throttle phase earlier.. but not too early! 

 

Wish cast for me is a redux of March 93 dropping the whole motherlode but shifted east. :D

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26 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

We couldn't ask for a better run from the 18z FV3 right now...

Us coastal guys need to see some big totals we need that another 50 to 100 miles EAST.

This thing is an eternity in the modeling world away so no op run is worth getting worked up over.

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5 minutes ago, Wow said:

Want to see the PV trend west like the FV3 is doing.  If this wave is going to dig this far south, we're going to need a full throttle phase earlier.. but not too early! 

 

Wish cast for me is a redux of March 93 dropping the whole motherlode but shifted east. :D

It really did look a lot like 93 just then, only a later start and further east. Pressure bombed crazy hard over New England though just like back then though.

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With the FV3, Euro and CNC all indicated a storm during this time frame. Its perfect for us in the western Carolinas. With the notorious NW trend these areas are already below540 on h5 maps. It will be interesting to see what the 0z Euro spits out with the temps. Just need the GEFS to come on bored then I think I start losing sleep. What about you guys?

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13 minutes ago, CADEffect said:

With the FV3, Euro and CNC all indicated a storm during this time frame. Its perfect for us in the western Carolinas. With the notorious NW trend these areas are already below540 on h5 maps. It will be interesting to see what the 0z Euro spits out with the temps. Just need the GEFS to come on bored then I think I start losing sleep. What about you guys?

And once again, screws us in the south and east...  You had your turn, let us have ours :lol:

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Just now, Orangeburgwx said:

And once again, screws us in the south and east...  You had your turn, let us have ours :lol:

I still have hope for you guys on the same system. the Cold air is very potent in what's been modeled so far today.

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52 minutes ago, SnowDawg said:

Of course it’s not bad for everyone. I never said that. Simply stated from a statistical standpoint, as in percentage of the Southeast to get snow, late bloomers are sad for most in the southeast especially with conditions being ripe for snow but just getting no moisture transport. But this board tends to pertain mostly to the Carolinas so not surprised at the response. 

Really doesn't show a late bloomer off the Carolina coast in the classic sense.  There is a 999mb low crossing Tampa before heading up the coast.  Throw in the almost the almost inevitable NW trend and we have a board-wide monster.  Of course, the bigger question is do the models start to converge on a strong SE storm in the NE gulf over the next couple of days.  

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The FV3 has been scoring awfully. I am so confident it won’t verify(but I hope that it does) that @Wow can change my username to whatever he wants if it verifies.

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21 minutes ago, Wild Weather Monger said:

Really doesn't show a late bloomer off the Carolina coast in the classic sense.  There is a 999mb low crossing Tampa before heading up the coast.  Throw in the almost the almost inevitable NW trend and we have a board-wide monster.  Of course, the bigger question is do the models start to converge on a strong SE storm in the NE gulf over the next couple of days.  

Yeah definitely not the classic case of a late bloomer. Just for all intensive purposes, at the surface it behaved like one.

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Too bad RDU folks can't take the FV3 to the bank. Foot+ snows next weekend, followed by a small mixed precip system a few days later, then a major sleet fest at day 14. 

That would personally push this winter to an A.  

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Just now, FallsLake said:

Too bad RDU folks can't take the FV3 to the bank. Foot+ snows next weekend, followed by a small mixed precip system a few days later, then a major sleet fest at day 14. 

That would personally push this winter to an A.  

Haha Snow seems to follow you around this year. For us SE of Raleigh and the coastal plains we would love to see the suppression continue for about another 3 days. GEFS seems to be tightening some today

 

gfs-ememb_lowlocs_eus_fh150_trend.gif

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10 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

Too bad RDU folks can't take the FV3 to the bank. Foot+ snows next weekend, followed by a small mixed precip system a few days later, then a major sleet fest at day 14. 

That would personally push this winter to an A.  

 

11 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

Too bad RDU folks can't take the FV3 to the bank. Foot+ snows next weekend, followed by a small mixed precip system a few days later, then a major sleet fest at day 14. 

That would personally push this winter to an A.  

Where does one go to find this FV3 map?

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