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Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

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5 hours ago, FallsLake said:

I'm liking what the 6z GFS is showing in the LR. One nice cool down for this weekend and then another at the end of its run. **RAH states the euro doesn't agree

6z GFS for this midday Saturday (it would be drizzly, but would feel like Fall): 

 

aaag.jpg

That would be awesome so I highly doubt it would happen. Even with the rain this past Saturday we never got below the mid 70's.

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10 minutes ago, yotaman said:

That would be awesome so I highly doubt it would happen. Even with the rain this past Saturday we never got below the mid 70's.

Yep, the 12z GFS still shows the cool down but not as pronounced. RAH said the euro was also not as enthused.  

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Rah still on board for a weekend cool down, but they are leaning towards the euro for the details. 

<last two paragraphs of the extended discussion>

Thursday night into Friday the upper level low will rotate east towards Quebec with another shortwave diving southeast out of Ontario on the backside. The GFS is slightly more amplified with this secondary wave compared to the ECMWF, while the CMC wraps this secondary energy up and actually holds it back a bit. The GFS solution pushes a cold front into central North Carlina Friday afternoon and has the front clearing North Carolina Saturday. The ECMWF and CMC are not this optimistic. The ECMWF stalls the front over central North Carolina while the CMC washes the front out near the Coastal Plain. Looking at the GEFS also reveals that the deterministic run is optimistic compared to the GEFS mean regarding drying conditions. The overall trend for the forecast was towards the ECMWF/ CMC and GEFS mean. This means widespread coverage is likely starting late Friday evening into Saturday as a cold front oozes south through the area. PWATs ahead of the front are forecast to be around 2.1", or near max values for this time of year. Warm cloud depths are also forecast to be above 12.5 kft at times which will help to maximize warm rain processes. Saturday afternoon the ECMWF, EPS mean, CMC,and GEPS mean show continued widespread coverage. The GFS at this time is dry having the front down towards South Carolina. As mentioned above, have kept towards the CMC and ECMWF here and raised PoPs for Saturday. The other trend for Friday and Saturday has been to nudge temperatures down. Given widespread convection forecast and a cold front oozing south think temperatures will be below normal for this time of year. Sunday the CMC and ECMWF show continued widespread coverage as the front stall across southern North Carolina and multiple mid-level impulses ride east along the baroclinic zone. Temperatures Sunday into Monday will likely remain below normal with a potential weak CAD developing.

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Well, it's not the 70's, but it's also not the 90's.

High temperatures should remain 
near normal on Friday before dropping considerably the remainder of 
the period thanks to a plethora of cloud cover and the presence of 
ongoing showers/storms. Expect afternoon temperatures to meander 
within the low to mid 80s, with lows dipping into the low to middle 
60s during the overnight hours. Some hints at a temperature increase 
as the front attempts to return north early next week, plausibly 
allowing central NC to return back into the warm sector. 

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RAH now a little more optimistic that the front will push through our area this weekend. 

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 250 PM Wednesday... A cold front associated with an unseasonably strong northern stream trough/upper low passage through the NE US and Mid-Atlantic states will provide the focus for widespread showers and storms at the start of the period. The timing of this front through the area continues to be a source of large model spread and high forecast uncertainty. General timing brings the cold front into the area from the NW late Friday afternoon and will slip slowly south through the overnight, before finally settling south of the area on Saturday. Low-level frontal convergence underneath the right entrance region of a ~90 kt upper jet streak associated with the upper trough moving through the region will result in deep/strong ascent across the area. Precipitable waters of 2.0-2.25", MLCAPE ~2000 J/Kg and a belt of strong westerlies of 30 to 35 kts dropping south into the area will support the threat for organized strong to severe storms, along with the threat of heavy rainfall of 1 to 2 inches with localized flash flooding possible Friday afternoon and evening. If latest model trends verify, a shallow of wedge of cooler and stable air will advect south through the day on Saturday as the cold front progresses south into SC and GA. While convection should follow the front, models suggest a a period of ana-frontal precip lingering across at least southern portions of the forecast area INVOF of the h8 trough axis Saturday afternoon and evening, possibly lingering into Saturday night. As the cooler and drier continues to filter into the area from the north Saturday night and into Sunday, courtesy of a strong ~1030 parent sfc high over New England, rain chances should decrease, leaving behind primarily cloudy and cool conditions Sunday and Monday. Rain chances return as early as Tuesday and Wednesday with the approach of a shortwave trough from the WSW. Finally, the NHC is monitoring an area of disturbed weather located over the central and northwestern Bahamas. Some slow development of this system is possible with a low-20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone over the next several days. As such, it is incredibly too early to forecast what impacts, if any, are possible across central NC. Make sure you follow a trusted weather source for all of your weather information.

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No one say a thing about whatever that is on the GFS 850mb Vorticity map at 384 hours. I think it’s best we just stay quiet about this, and don’t tell anyone.

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2 hours ago, Rhino16 said:

No one say a thing about whatever that is on the GFS 850mb Vorticity map at 384 hours. I think it’s best we just stay quiet about this, and don’t tell anyone.

384 hours is lala land, that's why. 

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RAH from last night:

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 245 AM Thursday... An interesting pattern setting up for the long term period, starting with a cold front passage in the pre-dawn hours Saturday. Models generally agree this front will be located along the coast by 18Z Saturday; however, with the upper trough axis still to our west and SW flow aloft, this will promote overrunning of a shallow low level wedge of cooler and stable air that will move in from the north behind the aforementioned front. The end result will be a mostly cloudy, cooler, and potentially damp Saturday, esp east of the Triad, with rainfall amounts of a couple tenths of an inch possible in the post-frontal rain. Cooler too, with ample low cloudiness and rain. Meanwhile, it`s worth noting as mentioned in the latest TWOAT, the trough of low pressure located over the central Bahamas is progged by several models, including the latest ECMWF, to lift north and merge with the aforementioned cold front remnants off the SE coast on Sunday. Fortunately these models keep any low pres development well off the coast, but should this happen, central NC may actually benefit from this pattern by way of increased N/NE flow which would advect drier air into our area from the north. On the other hand, a front that stalls closer to the immediate coast would warrant PoPs across our eastern zones for Sunday. But the trends have tended to favor the drier option. Finally, such vigorous NE flow would keep temps below normal for daytime highs. That system will exit to our NE on Monday, with mainly dry weather continuing for our area. The next short wave will then approach from the west Monday night and Tuesday, with climo or higher PoPs needed for Tuesday and perhaps into Wednesday with the passage of this short wave.

 

So we do want the low to develop and merge with the front; with (even more) cooler and dryer air being advected in.  

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9 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

RAH from last night:

So we do want the low to develop and merge with the front; with (even more) cooler and dryer air being advected in.  

For RAH...

00z GFS 0.76" --- dry Sunday

06z GFS 2.32" --- wet Sunday.

00z rebounds in to the low 80's on Sunday

06z keeps it in the low 70's.

 

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16 minutes ago, Solak said:

Yep, we're going to have to wait and see how this evolves. Kind of fun having something to track.....Even if it is just cooler or wetter solutions.   

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One thing that kills us in the SE during summer is the high humidity. Correlating with the high humidity are the high dew points that keep overnight lows warm.  

But in the next few days we'll (continue to) see an air mass that still has warm daytime temps in the 80s, but will have lows in the 50s to low 60s. That's bearable.

From RAH:

Shortwave ridging aloft and Canadian surface high pressure will build east across the cntl Appalachians and middle Atlantic states Thu and Thu night, with associated surface dewpoints and low temperatures in the 50s across the Piedmont, ranging to lwr 60s over the Sandhills and srn Coastal Plain. Highs near to slightly below average in the lwr to mid 80s, with very low/comfortable humidity levels.  

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So, the Triad did not have any official heatwaves in August 2019, although we had a string of three 89 degree days mid month. We’ve had five days in the 90s, the highest being a day at 95. The lowest has been 60. The coolest High was 70 on August 24. We are at .5 degrees above normal in temperatures, .2 above in precipitation. 

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The early outlooks for September look to be way nicer than last year. Looks like nothing above mid 80s (except upper 80s Friday) over the next 10-14 days for my area. After that, it gets much harder to find temps in the 90s. Is can happen of course, but the likelihood drops of very fast. Now we need those lows in the 50s (and may actually see some 50s the next couple nights).

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So much for my last post. The no 90s showing up at that time has become 90s for each of the next ten days, with mid 90s on a couple days at GSP. I am so over this heat, another summer without end!:angry:

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57 minutes ago, griteater said:

Euro has a temperature of 94 with a dewpoint of 44 Friday afternoon in Atlanta - in the hot, dry subsidence zone on the backside of Dorian

I love being on the W flank of hurricanes! I don’t need any rain anyway! The 1.5” I had the whole month of August will save my plants! :(

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The nighttime lows are starting to crash into the lower 60s here in the Triad but we still have a couple of weeks to get past the tropical influence and reset the fall progression.  Looks like we will be running 5-7° high for the next 10 days or so.  

I swear if we get a SER that locks in I'll go postal.  I cant deal with that again this year.

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11 hours ago, kvegas-wx said:

The nighttime lows are starting to crash into the lower 60s here in the Triad but we still have a couple of weeks to get past the tropical influence and reset the fall progression.  Looks like we will be running 5-7° high for the next 10 days or so.  

I swear if we get a SER that locks in I'll go postal.  I cant deal with that again this year.

The good thing is that in a few days, six or seven degrees above normal still will be below 90. 

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On 9/3/2019 at 3:05 PM, griteater said:

Euro has a temperature of 94 with a dewpoint of 44 Friday afternoon in Atlanta - in the hot, dry subsidence zone on the backside of Dorian

Currently 93/45 at Fulton County airport.  92/51 at ATL

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