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Upstate Tiger

Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

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Just now, mackerel_sky said:

Not with a 1046 in SE Canada! It will be a lot colder, verbatim, on that map!

Completely agree Mack.  That cold won’t scour away like the 18z is showing.

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18z GFS is Miller A-like.... and it definitely should be colder than what the model is depicting... let's hope this is the beginning of a trend.

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2 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

^^Yep, verbatim (for RDU) it would be snow to rain then back to heavy snow. That would be a crazy storm.. 

There should be some good hits on the GEFS. Nice to see winter starting to gain signs of life again.

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1 minute ago, BornAgain13 said:

Well this probably wont happen but fun to look at... it snows 27" IMBY

 

 

 

If I could get another foot, I would tip my hat to your two feet.  

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5 minutes ago, FallsLake said:

If I could get another foot, I would tip my hat to your two feet.  

That might put it over the top as the top snow season of all time. That has never happened as far as I can recall.

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9 minutes ago, Queencitywx said:

That might put it over the top as the top snow season of all time. That has never happened as far as I can recall.

Not sure how much snow fell during 2000 (The year of the "Carolina Crusher"). We would definitely be way above normal. RDU already is above.  

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Yep, the pattern looks a lot more favorable now that the GL low is no longer in play. Looks like a true miller A type storm incoming. I am still a little concerned with surface/850 temps, but as has been mentioned in previous posts, the confluence in the northeast is stout and should allow surface and 850 temps to trend colder as we approach the event. Now we wait to see how the trends develop over the next few days. Once we get inside the NAM's wheelhouse, we will get a better idea on thermal profiles. Until then, let's enjoy the tracking.

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3 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

Yep, the pattern looks a lot more favorable now that the GL low is no longer in play. Looks like a true miller A type storm incoming. I am still a little concerned with surface/850 temps, but as has been mentioned in previous posts, the confluence in the northeast is stout and should allow surface and 850 temps to trend colder as we approach the event. Now we wait to see how the trends develop over the next few days. Once we get inside the NAM's wheelhouse, we will get a better idea on thermal profiles. Until then, let's enjoy the tracking.

Yep! Time to start losing sleep awaiting the 0z Models to look for Clown Maps.

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22 minutes ago, BornAgain13 said:

Yep! Time to start losing sleep awaiting the 0z Models to look for Clown Maps.

I do remember our December storm some wee calling clown maps but much of the storm verified. 

With as much moisture we are getting lately if you add cold air into the mix and our peak winter time this could be an historic winter coming. 

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Thing that I find most alarming is the amount of liquid equivalent with this storm. Notice the increase from this morning's run.... 

gfs_apcpn_us_34.png

gfs_apcpn_us_33.png

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The difference in the FV3 from the previous run is the high pressure doesn't lock in place in time and allows the low to move more north.  

I also came to post that it is amazing how the line (with CAD events) is always through Wake.  I'm convinced that there is a physical limit to the geographic extent that the cold air can intrude with an average CAD event and it is Wake Co.  Unless it is an anomalously strong High, the CAD just doesn't intrude all the way through the county.  

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1 hour ago, PackGrad05 said:

The difference in the FV3 from the previous run is the high pressure doesn't lock in place in time and allows the low to move more north.  

I also came to post that it is amazing how the line (with CAD events) is always through Wake.  I'm convinced that there is a physical limit to the geographic extent that the cold air can intrude with an average CAD event and it is Wake Co.  Unless it is an anomalously strong High, the CAD just doesn't intrude all the way through the county.  

I believe the difference is that the low is more amped up and 3mb lower in pressure. It's not as progressive. All that waa doesn't allow the confluence to remain in place, That could spell trouble for snow-lovers.

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I stuck the keys in the ignition and fired the bus up early this morning. Enjoy the ride and heres to crossing that 20 inch seasonal mark for everyone below 1200 feet. 

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1 hour ago, PackGrad05 said:

The difference in the FV3 from the previous run is the high pressure doesn't lock in place in time and allows the low to move more north.  

I also came to post that it is amazing how the line (with CAD events) is always through Wake.  I'm convinced that there is a physical limit to the geographic extent that the cold air can intrude with an average CAD event and it is Wake Co.  Unless it is an anomalously strong High, the CAD just doesn't intrude all the way through the county.  

That may be true now, but there have definitely been events, even since 2000, where the CAD expanded much further south and east.

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2 hours ago, FallsLake said:

Not sure how much snow fell during 2000 (The year of the "Carolina Crusher"). We would definitely be way above normal. RDU already is above.  

About 28".

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7 minutes ago, NCSNOW said:

I stuck the keys in the ignition and fired the bus up early this morning. Enjoy the ride and heres to crossing that 20 inch seasonal mark for everyone below 1200 feet. 

Need to head south down 85 and pick up Mac first. He needs to spend a day riding the bus.

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This is not a good pattern for a winter storm here. There is some cold air around and there is a storm system, but the heights are high over most of central and eastern North America. There's a big ridge right on the tail of this thing. While there is a cold high, we have limited confluence and a progressive pattern. More likely than not, we'll see the FV3 18z solution or worse.

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2 minutes ago, CAD_Wedge_NC said:

Need to head south down 85 and pick up Mac first. He needs to spend a day riding the bus.

The only way I see snow, is y’all to pick me up and take me to Boone! Sucks to live here, if you like snow!

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2 minutes ago, WidreMann said:

This is not a good pattern for a winter storm here. There is some cold air around and there is a storm system, but the heights are high over most of central and eastern North America. There's a big ridge right on the tail of this thing. While there is a cold high, we have limited confluence and a progressive pattern. More likely than not, we'll see the FV3 18z solution or worse.

I agree with you at this point. In order for us to score with this one, there needs to be more damming or a weaker system. An amped up storm with lots of qpf will not give us a winter storm with this pattern. Can it look better come game-time? yes but it's not what we want just yet.

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The good news is the GEFS doesn’t really indicate cutting. The bad news is the mean went down and there’s basically about 2 or 3 ensemble members that agree with the OP.

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17 minutes ago, WidreMann said:

About 28".

From official RDU records, 28.1 inches for 2000 calendar year: 25.8 in January, 2.2 in November, and 0.1 in December.

If you meant for the 1999 - 2000 winter, it was just 25.8, since there was nothing in December 1999 or February 2000.

Interestingly, 1999 was a complete shut-out: 0.0 inches.

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Plenty of time for things to get better or worse with next week's threat, but this is reminding me of how the December storm evolved on the models. We also had a high near 70 here  about a week before that storm, just like today.

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