OceanStWx Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 7 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: So we need to deal with weenie wind gust images too. I'm actually really curious. The old Eta used to use momentum flux between the surface and the lowest model layer, it's possible the NAM still does that. But this also seems to match the 1000 ft wind speed fairly closely, but obviously 1000 ft will be well above the inversion in this event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 35 minutes ago, HoarfrostHubb said: I am not surprised at this. Seems to happen with this type of system Maybe PF's jacking will continue, It can get far enough west, But in this instance i wouldn't mind ripping the dryslot thru here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, dryslot said: Maybe PF's jacking will continue, It can get far enough west, But in this instance i wouldn't mind ripping the dryslot thru here. Powderfreak has embraced the icy death chutes around Christmas. I think he has started to plan annual events at Stowe too...like pond skimming on all the water that will collect on top of the frozen ice during the peak of the storm...and then they do ice sculpting with the huge chunks of slush that have refrozen once the storm ends. The kids love watching that activity. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Powderfreak has embraced the icy death chutes around Christmas. I think he has started to plan annual events at Stowe too...like pond skimming on all the water that will collect on top of the frozen ice during the peak of the storm...and then they do ice sculpting with the huge chunks of slush that have refrozen once the storm ends. The kids love watching that activity. Get your picture taken with Santa above the inversion at the picnic tables. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 Just now, ORH_wxman said: Powderfreak has embraced the icy death chutes around Christmas. I think he has started to plan annual events at Stowe too...like pond skimming on all the water that will collect on top of the frozen ice during the peak of the storm...and then they do ice sculpting with the huge chunks of slush that have refrozen once the storm ends. The kids love watching that activity. As many season recently, Just bad timing with the holidays and people taking ski vacations, This one looks to be extra special as you actually may be able to go water tubing under the chair line back to the lodge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 Just now, dendrite said: Get your picture taken with Santa above the inversion at the picnic tables. Powderfreak escorting the kids up the lift wearing elf shoes while steam rises from snowpack. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Powderfreak has embraced the icy death chutes around Christmas. I think he has started to plan annual events at Stowe too...like pond skimming on all the water that will collect on top of the frozen ice during the peak of the storm...and then they do ice sculpting with the huge chunks of slush that have refrozen once the storm ends. The kids love watching that activity. Ha we've already got next year's Grinch Storm activities planned. Pencil it in for Dec 20-25 time frame. We roll with the 2.2F temp increase around that time of year. Good climo planning tool lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Powderfreak escorting the kids up the lift wearing elf shoes while steam rises from snowpack. Kids wondering how skiing works when there's snow at the base but none up top. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 11 minutes ago, dendrite said: Get your picture taken with Santa above the inversion at the picnic tables. Oh man. New gold mine right there. Could probably get $50 a photo. Or take your photo with the Grinch in the rain? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 2 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Or take your photo with the Grinch in the rain? Tell them the story about VDay 2007. Powderfreak's grew 3 sizes that day. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 13 minutes ago, dryslot said: As many season recently, Just bad timing with the holidays and people taking ski vacations, This one looks to be extra special as you actually may be able to go water tubing under the chair line back to the lodge. lol. I still think we've got a shot at the mid-level dry slot between the better forcing on the coastal plain and upper level stuff back west in NY/Quebec/Ontario. It wont be pretty but selfishly I don't get to ski as much nor do I want to during that time frame...so not the worst time personally for a thaw. Then let the pow come back when everyone goes home on Jan 1st lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 1 minute ago, dendrite said: Tell them the story about VDay 2007. Powderfreak's grew 3 sizes that day. I'm just laughing at the idea of getting someone dressed up as the Grinch to wander the base area taking photos with kids in the puddles. That'd be hysterical. Little kids being read stories of deep powder snow, trees covered in snow that look like British Columbia mixed with Japan, holiday lights and a place that can snow 8-10 days in a row. Only to find a 70kt SE jet destroying their dreams. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Valley Snowman Posted December 20, 2018 Author Share Posted December 20, 2018 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 1 minute ago, powderfreak said: lol. I still think we've got a shot at the mid-level dry slot between the better forcing on the coastal plain and upper level stuff back west in NY/Quebec/Ontario. It wont be pretty but selfishly I don't get to ski as much nor do I want to during that time frame...so not the worst time personally for a thaw. Then let the pow come back when everyone goes home on Jan 1st lol. Kind of like when i want to be first tracks once the groomer did the trails, For selfish reasons of course, Hog all the powder for yourself.................. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lava Rock Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 1 hour ago, MarkO said: No pack in Lowell, but 6" of concrete up here. 2.5" qpf going to do some damage, but I expect to see some snow remaining. Maybe cut it in half? you're joking right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 That's a lotta juice down south. Here's hoping we see a radar like that in a month with fresh cold and benchmark track. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 From my Dec 12th post I see this as a strong transition week off the pattern reshuffle as we revert back to the stormy cold pattern which established itself in mid October. There is an outside chance we see some decent snow either Christmas eve or day, the better chance for a significant storm with heavy snow just away from the coast and near coastal rains ending as heavy snow could occur around the 27th. I am watching the 21st to 23rd as a possible big storm with heavy precip rain coast snow inland areas of SNE, if it occurs as a strong coastal storm, tides are high and will need to be watched. Ryan HanrahanVerified account @ryanhanrahan 3m3 minutes ago Coastal Flood Warning now posted for parts of Long Island Sound. Expect widespread inundation of low lying areas. #nbcct Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 2 hours ago, Hoth said: That's a lotta juice down south. Here's hoping we see a radar like that in a month with fresh cold and benchmark track. Seriously reminds me of Superstorm 93 without any cold 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Seriously reminds me of Superstorm 93 without any cold Heard back about the NAM nest wind gusts. It uses bulk Richardson Number to determine if wind will turbulently mix down. They used to have a vertical theta check for stability, but that is no longer part of the derivation. So areas over land where it thinks there is snow will have a smaller boundary layer, thus smaller gusts. But I think the problem here is the layer calculation, the Richardson Number allows for a larger PBL height, so higher gusts than these soundings support. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 1 minute ago, OceanStWx said: Heard back about the NAM nest wind gusts. It uses bulk Richardson Number to determine if wind will turbulently mix down. They used to have a vertical theta check for stability, but that is no longer part of the derivation. So areas over land where it thinks there is snow will have a smaller boundary layer, thus smaller gusts. But I think the problem here is the layer calculation, the Richardson Number allows for a larger PBL height, so higher gusts than these soundings support. Thanks, the Euro/GFS seem stout as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 Holy hell, what a turn around...stout southerly winds, temp at 50, smells like spring Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 Trees are gonna topple like teepees tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MarkO Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 3 hours ago, Lava Rock said: you're joking right? Nope. I expect some will remain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 I have my doubt's, But would be better if its more right then wrong.................. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HimoorWx Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 Okay, I've taken a stab at verses one and two . . . have at the rest! You're a mean one, Mr. Grinch You really are all wet You're as snowy as the tropics, with your subtropical jet, Mr. Grinch You're a roaring sou'easter and you're making us fret! You're a monster, Mr. Grinch Our ground is bare and brown Your rain will leave us flooded, and our sorrows we must drown, Mr. Grinch But Kev will still be happy if all his trees come tumbling down! [Verse 3] You're a vile one, Mr. Grinch You have termites in your smile You have all the tender sweetness of a seasick crocodile, Mr. Grinch Given a choice between the two of you I'd take the seasick crocodile! [Verse 4] You're a foul one, Mr. Grinch You're a nasty-wasty skunk Your heart is full of unwashed socks, your soul is full of gunk, Mr. Grinch The three words that best describe you are as follows, and I quote "Stink, stank, stunk!" [Verse 5] You're a rotter, Mr. Grinch You're the king of sinful sots Your heart's a dead tomato splotched with moldy purple spots, Mr. Grinch Your soul is an appalling dump heap overflowing with the most disgraceful Assortment of deplorable rubbish imaginable, mangled up in tangled up knots! [Verse 6] You nauseate me, Mr. Grinch With a nauseous super "naus"! You're a crooked dirty jockey and you drive a crooked hoss, Mr. Grinch You're a three decker sauerkraut and toadstool sandwich with arsenic sauce! 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 Well done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 What time do we flip to snow tomorrow? Asking for a friend... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 Oahu torch-us Nassau nuke-us Welcome Grinchmas track this way Oahu torch-us Nassau nuke-us Welcome Grinchmas, Grinchmas Day Welcome, Welcome Kevin combust Welcome, Welcome Metfan magmas Christmas snow is in our grasp If there are weenies left to clasp 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 20, 2018 Share Posted December 20, 2018 I'm dreaming of a green Christmas just like the ones Lurker Boy used to know? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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