December Discussion II

[weathafella]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

1-3” is plowable . They plow for that. That’s the way he’s leaning. Little to no snow prior  to that date. We both know, that would be just about impossible and impossible to deal with 

You dealt with it 4 years ago...

[512high]

Lol I remember when TIP started December #2... up to about 55 pages now......,few more days Ray's January look may be opening a new page as well! (Its all good!) 

[Ginx snewx]

Just now, weathafella said:

You dealt with it 4 years ago...

No plowables until 1/23/15 the year of the "nickle and dime" lol. I mean to me that would be perfect now that we have tossed Dec into the trash heap, 6-8 weeks of balls to the wall then spring March 20th or so

[Damage In Tolland]

7 minutes ago, weathafella said:

You dealt with it 4 years ago...

Going 8 weeks in the heart of winter without a snowfall? No we didn’t 

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Going 8 weeks without a snowfall? No we didn’t 

Yeah we basically did. We had a little bit  (maybe 2") on a front ender in early January before it washed away after almost getting shut out in December. Then we had a 2" clipper that also washed away a few days later from another cutter after bitter cold temps. 

That was basically all we had before the 1/24/15 storm. It was a pretty snowless 8 week stretch. I think ORH had a total of about 5" of snow between the Tday 2014 storm and the 1/24/15 storm. 

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

1-3” is plowable . They plow for that. That’s the way he’s leaning. Little to no snow prior  to that date. We both know, that would be just about impossible and impossible to deal with 

I heard plows scraping the pavement on xmas eve...does that count?

[CoastalWx]

In said ain’t happening James. I don’t recall a statement to Ray? And I’m proud of my call to james. 99.9999% of the time it’s true.  

[Damage In Tolland]

12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah we basically did. We had a little bit  (maybe 2") on a front ender in early January before it washed away after almost getting shut out in December. Then we had a 2" clipper that also washed away a few days later from another cutter after bitter cold temps. 

That was basically all we had before the 1/24/15 storm. It was a pretty snowless 8 week stretch. 

But there’s 2 plowables there. It’s pretty likely all 4 SNE major go T for snow in Dec.   No one... not one person here in their wildest dreams ever thought that possible. And if we go another 3-4 weeks. . You’ve lost over half a winter. I doubt that happens highly .. there’s a better chance of Winterwolf , Sugarloaf , Dryslot , Jspin, Qg Omega and GreatSnow sending me a holiday card group picture from a night out of duckpin bowling and enjoying  Moon over my hammy’s at Denny’s than that happening.

[Typhoon Tip]

2 hours ago, weathafella said:

We’re still prone to cutters for another week or so...

Hard to say but that may be on the shallow side of 'when' the paradigm shift occurs... where I suspect two weeks is on the deeper end of that... Perhaps D10 thereabouts.

It's almost like the Euro has more MJO forcing in it's genetics (if you will...) The GFS and GEFs for that matter, now ...GGEM included, have taken to consistently carving out eastern heights and lowering the Caribbean thermal dome more prodigiously by D10.  The Euro fights this ...which is a bit more correlative for a uber Phase 6 MJO ... But here's the real irony... the Euro's MJO is comparatively weak or non-existent in Phase 6!  Weird...it's like the Euro's operational behavior is a better match for the GEFs MJO and vice versa.  How's that for a mire of confusion -

I think in the end it all red flags a pattern change.  ...to what, time will tell..

Again, to re-iterate.  None of this is really associated with any SSW (AO)  stuff... This appears to be a pattern alteration prior to any AO pancake event.  Which is not even clear whether that's going to be the case in mind mind. Ironically (again) the AO in the CPC is actually rising in the mean in the extended.  As well, I checked the strat/trop monitoring sources that give the GEFs modeling for the sigma levels up there; there's really no conclusive evidence that the warm node presently emerging is or will ultimately be of the down-ward propagating phenomenon.  But's that all an aside...

[kdxken]

32 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I meant one or more moderate events...like 4-8" is possible, or something like that. I'm talking ceiling...maybe event up to 6-12"....just thinking aloud though. Could be nothing beforehand, too.

Or  a Blockbuster . 

[ORH_wxman]

25 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

But there’s 2 plowables there. It’s pretty likely all 4 SNE major go T for snow in Dec.   No one... not one person here in their wildest dreams ever thought that possible. And if we go another 3-4 weeks. . You’ve lost over half a winter. I doubt that happens highly .. there’s a better chance of Winterwolf , Sugarloaf , Dryslot , Jspin, Qg Omega and GreatSnow sending me a holiday card group picture from a night out of duckpin bowling and enjoying  Moon over my hammy’s at Denny’s than that happening.

Youre parsing into marginal semantics here...a 1.9 and a 2.2 on the front side of a monster cutter is questionable to call plowable. When people generally say plowable, they are talking about at least advisory snowfall events. Maybe you aren't but the majority don't equate a 1.9" fluffy clipper you can use a broom to clear your walkway with as a plowable event. 

Regardless of these semantics, the general idea of 2014-2015 doesn't change. We went 8 weeks with almost nothing except a couple nusance events. 

[Ginx snewx]

30 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah we basically did. We had a little bit  (maybe 2") on a front ender in early January before it washed away after almost getting shut out in December. Then we had a 2" clipper that also washed away a few days later from another cutter after bitter cold temps. 

That was basically all we had before the 1/24/15 storm. It was a pretty snowless 8 week stretch. I think ORH had a total of about 5" of snow between the Tday 2014 storm and the 1/24/15 storm. 

here's the COOP he likes in Staffordville between 12/1 and 1/21 snow accumulation

[NorEastermass128]

Hey now. The 18z GFS gets a clue. Now looks pretty similar to the EURO. The trough axis looks too far west, so it looks like another wet solution for NYE/NYD. Two more cutters and then we’re onto the promised land...almost. 

[CoastalWx]

Kevin is losing it.    

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Kevin is losing it.    

???. I’m expecting snow on the 31st and two or three days later. Now if we do happen to go 8 weeks in heart of winter in Dec and Jan... you’ll see losing it 

[SnoSki14]

10 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Hey now. The 18z GFS gets a clue. Now looks pretty similar to the EURO. The trough axis looks too far west, so it looks like another wet solution for NYE/NYD. Two more cutters and then we’re onto the promised land...almost. 

I'm not sure about promised land but things look a lot better after that, MJO should be entering phase 6. 

Not looking forward to another 2"+ of rains though, Gfs has rain when the ball drops. 

I don't think anyone will see anything until mid Jan, pattern remains ugly, though improving, before that.

However I don't like seeing that death vortex over Alaska and recently ENSO 1+2 region's have been warming considerably per Don S. post, so this winter could still end up being a failure.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

???. I’m expecting snow on the 31st and two or three days later. Now if we do happen to go 8 weeks in heart of winter in Dec and Jan... you’ll see losing it 

I can tell. Threats mounting 

[Greg]

18 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

Hey now. The 18z GFS gets a clue. Now looks pretty similar to the EURO. The trough axis looks too far west, so it looks like another wet solution for NYE/NYD. Two more cutters and then we’re onto the promised land...almost. 

Actually, both the GFS and Euro were whiffs at 12z, now the GFS 18z has the rain just like the CMC and ICON.  We'll see if the Euro follows suit late tonight.

[qg_omega]

On 12/18/2018 at 10:05 PM, SnoSki14 said:

More like mid January, pattern still looks like garbage before that.

 MJO still stuck in phase 5 into the new year.

MJO still stuck in phase 5, PV splitting into Europe, my thoughts from 10 days ago still remain the same despite DIT calling an end to all rain and cutters

[CoastalWx]

Low heights  near AK still hurting us hence the transitory cold. Look at the heights on the gfs op through day 10. Gotta flush that out. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, qg_omega said:

MJO still stuck PV splitting into Europe, my thoughts from 10 days ago still remain the same despite DIT calling an end to all rain and cutters

There is no PV split to Europe. Where are you getting that?

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

There is no PV split to Europe. Where are you getting that?

Why do you respond to this kids posts? Haven’t you seen what he does? Just trolls you guys. Dude isn’t near New England, yet posts in here.. and you all take the bait. Ignore the kid 

[ORH_wxman]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Why do you respond to this kids posts? Haven’t you seen what he does? Just trolls you guys. Dude isn’t near New England, yet posts in here.. and you all take the bait. Ignore the kid 

Maybe he is taking the torch from allsnow...he used to troll our threads and then would disappear for weeks while we got crushed. 

[Greg]

8 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Why do you respond to this kids posts? Haven’t you seen what he does? Just trolls you guys. Dude isn’t near New England, yet posts in here.. and you all take the bait. Ignore the kid 

Actually, he is near New England. Near the Glen Falls, NY region.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, Greg said:

Actually, he is near New England. Near the Saratoga, NY region.

There’s an Upstate NY forum for those folks. Let him post there during study hall 

[Greg]

2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

There’s an Upstate NY forum for those folks. Let him post there during study hall 

This is true. I agree with you. That guy should post in his own forum.

[CoastalWx]

I’m just asking. Maybe he’s misinformed. 

[HoarfrostHubb]

Who cares who is posting in which forum...   

That Jan 2015 thread is a great read

[qg_omega]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I’m just asking. Maybe he’s misinformed. 

I see three PV lobes, all over Europe.  No blocking and zonal pac flow over the country.  I know it's the 18z OP GFS but I don't care what model it is, I believe it has the right idea.  Agrees with my thoughts from early December after the snowstorm in November.  November snow historically is not a good sign for the winter.  We are going to miss a good six weeks of winter with a very hostile pattern.  I hope it changes in mid January but I'm not hopeful until we see the MJO actually move into phase 7.  It's currently stalled in 5 and that's going on 15 days.  I'm not trolling here but the misinformation in this forum spread by a small few is disappointing.

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, qg_omega said:

I see three PV lobes, all over Europe.  No blocking and zonal pac flow over the country.  I know it's the 18z OP GFS but I don't care what model it is, I believe it has the right idea.  Agrees with my thoughts from early December after the snowstorm in November.  November snow historically is not a good sign for the winter.  We are going to miss a good six weeks of winter with a very hostile pattern.  I hope it changes in mid January but I'm not hopeful until we see the MJO actually move into phase 7.  It's currently stalled in 5 and that's going on 15 days.  I'm not trolling here but the misinformation in this forum spread by a small few is disappointing.

Do you not know where Europe is? Main PV is over Siberia there. We get another big lobe into Canada eventually after the first few days of Jan.