40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 Just now, Greg said: Actually if the Para has a cold bias then the track would be closer. The CMC always had a warm bias so the track would be further south. however, with the Euro being a whiff usually lends credence to more of a coastal graze instead of a hit. Still 5 days away. Just expect very little and hope to be surprised.....other than that, look to 2019. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: There are a group of posters that needs to withdraw investment for a couple of more weeks, but just can't bring themselves to do it....this is the result. You and i would have been one of them years back, Its a learning process and one that you figure out in time to let the pattern process play out showing patience, If the light at the end of the tunnel was burned out, Then it would be one thing, But going forward, It looks to turn more favorable, Just a matter of getting some of these threats to work out in between, We have been rather unlucky here recently with some of these, But these could have gone in a good way as well and we would be having a different discussion right now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Greg Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Just expect very little and hope to be surprised.....other than that, look to 2019. Very true advice. I'm in total agreement. Nice to track something at least in this overall boring pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 3 minutes ago, dryslot said: You and i would have been one of them years back, Its a learning process and one that you figure out in time to let the pattern process play out showing patience, If the light at the end of the tunnel was burned out, Then it would be one thing, But going forward, It looks to turn more favorable, Just a matter of getting some of these threats to work out in between, We have been rather unlucky here recently with some of these, But these could have gone in a good way as well and we would be having a different discussion right now. Yes, I am still prone to melts with the best of them....but my PV is a little more resilient at this point in my life. However if somehow there were nothing on the horizon by 2/1, then you bet your azz my $hit would propagate and downwell all over this board......then my wife would likely verify the displacement. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 2 minutes ago, Greg said: Actually if the Para has a cold bias then the track would be closer. The CMC always had a warm bias so the track would be further south. however, with the Euro being a whiff usually lends credence to more of a coastal graze instead of a hit. Still 5 days away. It's not really a temp bias issue imo. The FV3 is ejecting a piece of energy out of the SW US trough way faster than the other models. By coming out earlier it has a lot more room to amplify. By the time the op kicks the s/w toward us there are northern and southern s/w's on its tail and more confluence out ahead of it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 4 minutes ago, Greg said: Very true advice. I'm in total agreement. Nice to track something at least in this overall boring pattern. Yea, I mean...if you are going to post in this thread, I'm not sure where else the focus would lie at this point, aside from maybe monthly departures. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yes, I am still prone to melts with the best of them....but my PV is a little more resilient at this point in my life. However if somehow there were nothing on the horizon by 2/1, then you bet you zzz my $hit would propagate and down well all over this board......them my wife would likely ignite the displacement. If it got to that point, Then i think all bets would be off here too, But it takes quite a bit these days for me to lose my Sh it, Meanwhile, I'll be out ice fishing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 I'm enjoying some weenie flakes here this afternoon. Lots of possibilities to hit--or miss--in the next couple of weeks. If we're not scoring by January 7th or so, it'll be ugly. Uglier than it already is. 30* 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 1 hour ago, weathafella said: How a sh’tty winter can turn on a dime.....read the entire thread.... t I was reading the Obs thread for the 26th storm when you posted this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 23 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: There are a group of posters that needs to withdraw investment for a couple of more weeks, but just can't bring themselves to do it....this is the result. Why? I mean shi it happens quickly, no crystal balls in weather. You may think you have it all figured out for the next two weeks but cmon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 1 hour ago, weathafella said: How a sh’tty winter can turn on a dime.....read the entire thread.... t If I were the clinician for this forum, my treatment plan would undoubtedly include a thorough reading of that thread. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Why? I mean shi it happens quickly, no crystal balls in weather. You may think you have it all figured out for the next two weeks but cmon I wasn't directing that at anyone specifically.....just for those who are very frustrated. Only those folks know if it applies to them. Sure, my ideas could be wrong....no question. However I feel confident. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: If I were the clinician for this forum, my treatment plan would undoubtedly include a thorough reading of that thread. 2 best posts in that thread, ain't happening James and, Ray no way we reach 90 this year, all good stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 Just now, Ginx snewx said: 2 best posts in that thread, ain't happening James and, Ray no way we reach 90 this year, all good stuff Who said the second one, Scott? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I wasn't directing that at anyone specifically.....just for those who are very frustrated. Only those folks know if it applies to them. Sure, my ideas could be wrong....no question. However I feel confident. If 2015 taught us anything it is patience grasshoppers. I do however think there will be snow OTG first week of the New Year, perhaps significant. That NAO block means bidness Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Who said the second one, Scott? Yep lol, you said, man I am glad I didn't cave and change me seasonal numbers...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Yep lol, you said, man I am glad I didn't cave and change me seasonal numbers...... Hahaha...can't blame him, but....funny, nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: If 2015 taught us anything it is patience grasshoppers. I do however think there will be snow OTG first week of the New Year, perhaps significant. That NAO block means bidness Chances are we will see at least one plowable before 1/20......this will turn progressively less hostile from here on out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Chances are we will see at least one plowable before 1/20...... One plowable?lol.. that seems very unrealistic..if that’s the case you can keep this winter. No thanks to a couple good weeks then done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: One plowable?lol.. that seems very unrealistic..if that’s the case you can keep this winter. No thanks to a couple good weeks then done. He said “at least” 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
512high Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: One plowable?lol.. that seems very unrealistic..if that’s the case you can keep this winter. No thanks to a couple good weeks then done. Not speaking for Ray, I think he is saying after that time frame is when he feels big changes........HOWEVER, lol if that is the only plowable event.....we jump! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said: Hahaha...can't blame him, but....funny, nonetheless. Yea no way any of us on Jan 23rd expected to end up over 100. The Jan 11 Feb 13 Jan Feb 15 and March 18 patterns were spotted ahead of time and required patience, we are there again. I believe it may be an intense 6-8 weeks ofas Legro says, putting up watches before warnings are pulled. Just when that period evolves is the question, you like it starting the 3rd week I am sooner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 2 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: One plowable?lol.. that seems very unrealistic..if that’s the case you can keep this winter. No thanks to a couple good weeks then done. Lol you would hit 2011 2013 2015 again in a friggin heartbeat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 206 pages for a month during which many of us haven't recorded measurable snowfall. Impressive. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 Just now, Ginx snewx said: Yea no way any of us on Jan 23rd expected to end up over 100. The Jan 11 Feb 13 Jan Feb 15 and March 18 patterns were spotted ahead of time and required patience, we are there again. I believe it may be an intense 6-8 weeks ofas Legro says, putting up watches before warnings are pulled. Just when that period evolves is the question, you like it starting the 3rd week I am sooner. I'd be lying if I said that. We had some luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 1 minute ago, 512high said: Not speaking for Ray, I think he is saying after that time frame is when he feels big changes........HOWEVER, lol if that is the only plowable event.....we jump! You jump if only one plowable before 1/20, you forget easy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 1 minute ago, Chrisrotary12 said: 206 pages for a month during which many of us haven't recorded measurable snowfall. Impressive. it is a discussion thread not a snow thread no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 5 minutes ago, weathafella said: He said “at least” 1-3” is plowable . They plow for that. That’s the way he’s leaning. Little to no snow prior to that date. We both know, that would be just about impossible and impossible to deal with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 4 minutes ago, 512high said: Not speaking for Ray, I think he is saying after that time frame is when he feels big changes........HOWEVER, lol if that is the only plowable event.....we jump! What I meant was although beyond 1/20 is prime time, that fact alone it not prohibitive to some snow before then....just no juggernaut. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted December 26, 2018 Share Posted December 26, 2018 Just now, Damage In Tolland said: 1-3” is plowable . They plow for that. That’s the way he’s leaning. Little to no snow prior to that date. We both know, that would just about impossible and impossible to deal with I meant one or more moderate events...like 4-8" is possible, or something like that. I'm talking ceiling...maybe event up to 6-12"....just thinking aloud though. Could be nothing beforehand, too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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