Buddy1987 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 What is the Canadian seeing that some of the others aren’t in regards to tucking it closer to coast and bringing a snow bomb to southern VA? Is it the time of the N/s wave interacting and influencing the southern stream? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 minute ago, ers-wxman1 said: 00z suite will be the one to watch. Give it one more round before definitive. Assuming there isn't a south trend and its still looking about as it is now...I wouldn't even totally check out after 0z. God knows we have seen weirder things happen...but after tonight we would be heading into needing a January 2000 and March 2001 type bust territory. It's still close...but I really am not liking the trend in the flow over New England. We need that to relax and it seems like its coming in stronger each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eaglesin2011 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 10 minutes ago, ers-wxman1 said: 00z suite will be the one to watch. Give it one more round before definitive. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/satlooper.php?region=atlpac-wide&product=wv-mid nice view here.. Id wait to give up until at least the whole storm makes it on land for a good 24 hrs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 UKMET offers us nothing, low goes from the panhandle of Florida at 72 to halfway between the east coast and Bermuda at 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 39 minutes ago, jaydreb said: CMC takes away DCA’s flurries. Yesterday it gave us 14-16” ): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 FV3 precipitation shield looks a bit better for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jackb979 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Reminder that the disturbance will finally move onshore on the west coast around 3-4am EST tonight/tomorrow morning. I'm not getting my hopes up for a major change to the forecast, but it will be interesting to see if there's any shifts either way once we get some observations fed into the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, peribonca said: FV3 precipitation shield looks a bit better for us indeed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Round Hill WX Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 minute ago, jackb979 said: Reminder that the disturbance will finally move onshore on the west coast around 3-4am EST tonight/tomorrow morning. I'm not getting my hopes up for a major change to the forecast, but it will be interesting to see if there's any shifts either way once we get some observations fed into the models The STJ low pressure is well sampled so I wouldn't focus on it. Instead, the vort that is currently modeled to push the storm off the SE coast is just now in the area of the Arctic Ocean/Alaska. That area is data sparse. Even satellite data is limited due to the cold temperatures that can interfere with satellite data ingestion. This vort will be the focus.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 FV3 soooo close. Maybe JI can get some flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Only good news is that we are within the FV3’s lunch break at 96 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 At least it seems the south trend from yesterday has stopped and perhaps we are seeing a slight nudge north now...but all we are doing is getting back to where we were the last few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Like to see the very slight north trends on GFS and FV3, at least we're headed in the right direction. Perhaps the King will follow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 4 minutes ago, IUsedToHateCold said: Like to see the very slight north trends on GFS and FV3, at least we're headed in the right direction. Perhaps the King will follow? Doubtful, EURO will probably go even further south lol Or just to screw with us, be a minor hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 43 minutes ago, DCTeacherman said: UKMET offers us nothing, low goes from the panhandle of Florida at 72 to halfway between the east coast and Bermuda at 96. Snow accum map looks to get flurries to maybe to EZF... Staunton ~1" and CHO ~ 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 12z GEFS definitely nudged north. 2” line into DCA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 2 minutes ago, Thanatos_I_Am said: 12z GEFS definitely nudged north. 2” line into DCA. 12 more nudges north and... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RichmondTarHeel Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 I know using a clown map isn't a good indicator of trends, but to me it looks like it keeps inching North with each run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 24 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: At least it seems the south trend from yesterday has stopped and perhaps we are seeing a slight nudge north now...but all we are doing is getting back to where we were the last few days. Baby steps are all we need. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 On the 12z GEFS individual members FWIW, through hour 120, 8 of the 20 get the 2" line right by DCA Compared to the 06z GEFS individual members through hr 126, 3 of the 20 got the 2" line right by DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 QPF from the 06z Fv2 model run 0.01 in Washington, 12z run 0.09 went from a dusting to around 1 inch QPF 06z Fv2 for Charlottesville 0.27, 12z run 0.47 went from around 3 inches to 5 inches QPF 06z run for Richmond 0.57, 12z run 0.59 snowfall stayed the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Just now, Snowchaser said: QPF from the 06z Fv2 model run 0.01 in Washington, 12z run 0.09 went from a dusting to around 1 inch QPF 06z Fv2 for Charlottesville 0.27, 12z run 0.47 went from around 3 inches to 5 inches QPF 06z run for Richmond 0.57, 12z run 0.59 snowfall stayed the same Where did you get that info from? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 It's inching north, but at this rate, it would take until December 15th for it to get any good stuff up to us. We don't have that much time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 FV-3 is around 2-3" in EZF, seems plausible, but I'm not really confident. Cant wait for the EURO to see if it nudges anything anywhere.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Do you guys think the storm is inching North or is it just the precip shield expanding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowchaser Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 guys watch the last 3 runs from fv2 model 12z, 06z, 12z you can clearly see the the snowfall moving north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 1 minute ago, peribonca said: Do you guys think the storm is inching North or is it just the precip shield expanding? I'm going to lead to the precip shield expanding a bit... but I may be wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SlamSlam Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 The position of the L is slightly different in each of the last 4 runs.Sent from my SAMSUNG-SM-G891A using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted December 6, 2018 Share Posted December 6, 2018 Surprised to see this high of a percentage IMBY for the forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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