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snowlover2

December 2018 General Discussion

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Visited family near Omaha this weekend and woke up to a nice surprise of 4-6" of wet concrete. Heavy band overnight was supposed to be south near the NE/MO/IA border.

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7 hours ago, Stebo said:

Had one like that a couple years back during a snow/sleet event. Hit a couple blocks over but was the loudest thunder I had ever heard. It was so loud that the house the bolt hit in front of, blew their windows out.

Wow!  I'm thinking it hit the house across the street, as they were the only ones who lost power.  It did knock the internet out for a few mins though.  If it did in fact hit their house they're lucky it didn't catch fire.  

Despite the heavy rains and temps being well above freezing for over 24hrs we still have a good 3-4" of cement left.  It's extremely dirty looking snow though, as there's all kinds of debris strewn across it.  The strong winds yesterday morning knocked down quite a few twigs, and even a few small dead branches.  Also quite a few leaves blowing about still.  Whenever this snow melts I still need to get out and finish mulching leaves, and burn off my burn pile.  Hopefully we can get a few warm days while the pattern remains quiet in the next week or so.

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Just over 10" has fallen so far, with an average 10:1 ratio. It has let up a little from earlier, but still moderate with heavy pockets from time to time.  Expecting another 6" before ending in the morning.  This will be my third snow this season over a foot and possibly the second one to exceed 15"... season total is over 60" already.

Edit to add that as of 1:00 pm, MQT down in Negaunee reported 8.8" snow with a 1" liquid equiv.... very dense snow!

 

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6 minutes ago, weatherbo said:

Just over 10" has fallen so far, with an average 10:1 ratio. It has let up a little from earlier, but still moderate with heavy pockets from time to time.  Expecting another 6" before ending in the morning.  This will be my third snow this season over a foot and possibly the second one to exceed 15"... season total is over 60" already.

Wow.  Most of us won't see over 60" this entire winter.

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It's getting colder and the snow is heavier again this past hour.  Even over the lake, stuff heading this way is lighting up more.  NAM is suggesting 8-10" by 7 am, forecast is for 5 more inches overnight. NAM had the right idea all along, hinting at the possibility of 14-20" through here, so no reason to doubt it... should end up in the 15-20" range.

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39 minutes ago, Angrysummons said:

Nice warmth today. Probably won't get this warm until spring unless we get a big warm up down the road like the last 2 years.

I'd bet on it.

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On 12/1/2018 at 7:51 PM, cyclone77 said:

Been alive for over 40 years now, but the crash of thunder that hit around 6pm was the craziest/loudest thunder I've ever heard.  Not sure where the bolt hit, but it had to be within 100yds.  Lit up the whole inside of the house and instantly crashed and shook the house.  Scared the living shit out of me lol.  Funny thing is up until then, and even after the thunder was mainly the distant/slow rolling kind.  it had to be one of those high amp positive strikes.  That was honestly almost more impressive than the blizzard earlier this week.

I read this last night not knowing that a sort of similar thing was about to happen to me (not exactly but whatever).

Just before 5 pm I noticed it was getting very dark after the awesome mid-afternoon sunshine but I chalked it up to the time of year and early sunset. I then noticed a purple flash of lightning to my west and it looked just downright nasty. Not long after a nice CG bolt occurred closer to me (!!). I tried to check the radar but before I could the frequent lightning that was getting worse by the moment produced one of the craziest lightning strikes I've ever seen at a very close range: a large bolt within 500 meters hitting thankfully nothing with a kink in the center that produced sparks and vibrant electricity off the leader line!! I've never seen that feature in-person til today. This scared the **** outta me and I don't even remember if the thunder was loud or not because I immediately unplugged all kinds of stuff in record speed. One CG is a major warning but two is frantically getting everything off the socket.

There was a severe thunderstorm watch but I don't know if a warning was issued. TWN never put us in a thunderstorm threat let alone a severe one. No forecast for thunderstorms at all...this came outta nowhere! It was a fast moving one with decent winds and heavy rain...even hail reported.

On radar it was a rapidly moving arcing line of storms (broken lines/quasi-linear) embedded in broad showers. It almost looked to be a double line very tightly packed together. It appeared to be even worse to the south of me which I saw lots of lightning well after the worst had passed me.

Leave it to 2018 to deliver the worst thunderstorm in December here (this is the worst thunderstorm I've seen for this month) with vicious lightning. I saw 5 or more CGs and many streaks of lightning that appeared fuzzy and thick. The rubberband effect is real, I was thinking our best storms would be off-season after the record-shattering quiet storm season in Midwestern Ontario. As usual our best storms/events are those that aren't hyped or forecast since I had no thunderstorm in my 36 hour forecast. Looking through twitter I don't see any evidence that any other region in Ontario got as bad storms as we did.

At 2:00 pm this afternoon we got up far past the forecast high with 12ºC with light winds and almost entirely blue skies!!! I haven't seen that in over a month and a half so I made sure I took full advantage of it soaking up those rays. It was a tiny window of time too to get it. Everything lined up perfectly for both getting the maximum daytime high and the best daytime heating for those storms to rip through. What a crazy synoptic system.

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On 12/1/2018 at 1:30 PM, Hoosier said:

Watching the lake effect setup into/near northwest IN Monday into Tuesday.  The duration could be decent but not looking that good overall as inversion heights don't look too impressive and temps, while cold enough for snow, could be warm enough to cause some melting especially during the day.  

Not really any changes in the setup.  This looks like a 1-2" thing for the most part at this point.  Maybe somebody can come in higher wherever the band(s) lingers longest.  As far as where it could spend the most time, that may end up being Lake county IN especially if the land breeze pushes it back west tomorrow night/Tuesday as some models are suggesting.

I'd be more bullish if temps were a little colder and lift was better located in the DGZ.

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Not sure how much it's worth but the 06Z GFS doesn't show the Midwest getting any more snow, and in fact erodes the snowpack to nothing across IL, most of IA and the southern 2/3 of WI/MI through hour 384.

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24 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

Not sure how much it's worth but the 06Z GFS doesn't show the Midwest getting any more snow, and in fact erodes the snowpack to nothing across IL, most of IA and the southern 2/3 of WI/MI through hour 384.

Yea the past couple days of runs have been down right ugly for the Upper Midwest. :(

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27 minutes ago, CheeselandSkies said:

and in fact erodes the snowpack to nothing across IL

No snowpack really left here except piles and ugly rain-soaked crusty stuff. Let's not forget that winter didn't really get going until x-mas eve last year.

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Also if you had to bet on which month could be problematic in a Nino, it would be December.  Not always of course and sometimes the other winter months suck (especially in stronger Nino) but it won't be shocking if this month isn't good.  Still plenty of time though and hopefully it turns better in the latter portion.

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Finished with just a hair under 3" IMBY during the weekend event. The metro area really saw a tight snowfall gradient as the more intense banding fell apart making its way north, so I missed out on some of the more impressive totals. Marginal temperatures caused for a wet snow, and for a few hours we had light snow with an air temp of 32-34F that wasted away accumulation potential. 

4" of snow on the ground and highs below freezing this week. While we are below average on snowfall this season, I'll take it with below average temperatures. At least we haven't had killer thaws with rain like other portions of the subforum. 

The lakes already have plenty of ice on them, went for a walk around Lake Nokomis this morning and there is a makeshift hockey rink setup, and a few guys ice fishing offshore. Fresh snow, grey cloudy day with occasional snow flurries and a north wind. Perfect. 

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Took a few hours, but things are mostly cleaned up.  Will do some detail work tomorrow.

Cleared a path to the woodshed and was surprised to see a 23" depth in back (measured on average 19-21"). A few inches possible Wed night/Thur, then looks quiet.

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6 hours ago, cyclone77 said:

We were definitely overdue for a quiet period, as it's been a very active weather pattern for quite awhile.  Hopefully the latter half of Dec picks pack up a bit.  

Speak for yourself lol.!  Its been cricket quiet round here :sleepy:

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1 minute ago, Snowless in Carrollton said:

It's amazing how nobody is even mentioning the storm next weekend. So I am going to assume that the entire midwest will stay dry and it will all go to the south.

Well. That high dropping in will determine the outcome. Right now looks like an I-71 corridor and south for Ohio.

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21 minutes ago, CoachLB said:

Well. That high dropping in will determine the outcome. Right now looks like an I-71 corridor and south for Ohio.

Eastern Texas is typically a perfect launching spot for most of our sub.  But of course a huge high has to sit in the way.  Ugh

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