IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 28 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said: That the weeklies head toward a classic December-February El Niño/EPO-/AO- 500 mb pattern is quite exciting. Below is a chart showing that pattern: Overall, things still remain on track for a snowy to very snowy winter in the region. Cities including Albany, Binghamton, Boston, Detroit, Harrisburg, Hartford, Islip, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, Richmond, Scranton, and Washington should do well in terms of snowfall once the pattern develops and then potentially locks in. I'm eying the 31st to the 2nd. An East Based NAO and -EPO/+PNA signature shows up at that time. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 So Judah Cohen is on a new tack. He was so sure of his snow-cover ideas. I hope he has it right now. All I get out of any article like this is that the next card out of the deck may be the 'A of Spades or the 2 of Clubs'. If you want to know for certain---Mark the Deck!. But noone knows what marks the atmosphere has put on itself this year or any year. I don't mind waiting, when I know what I am waiting for. Some meteorologist's or climatologist's prediction will be right for this season, and that person will be the new 'guru'of the atmosphere', just like on the Business News channels. LoL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 SSW Event Earthlight Quote This is about a consistent of a signal as you will see for major, near record-breaking warmth at 10hPa from 60-90N . Isotherm Quote This SSW event appears to be a virtual lock, and it's been awhile since I've been positive about a winter; I'm more interested about prospects than I've been in 4+ years, going forward for this winter 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 1 hour ago, CIK62 said: So Judah Cohen is on a new tack. He was so sure of his snow-cover ideas. I hope he has it right now. All I get out of any article like this is that the next card out of the deck may be the 'A of Spades or the 2 of Clubs'. If you want to know for certain---Mark the Deck!. But noone knows what marks the atmosphere has put on itself this year or any year. I don't mind waiting, when I know what I am waiting for. Some meteorologist's or climatologist's prediction will be right for this season, and that person will be the new 'gura of the atmosphere', just like on the Business News channels. LoL. Back-loaded winters have been the norm during the 2010’s. I guess the only winter we can truly call front-loaded was 10-11 with the 60” in spots before February. Even the La Niña last year had an historic late finish. El Niño’s are usually back-loaded by nature. So it’s not a stretch to believe this year will be similar. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 1 minute ago, bluewave said: Back-loaded winters have been the norm during the 2010’s. I guess the only winter we can truly call front-loaded was 10-11 with the 60” in spots before February. Even the La Niña last year had an historic late finish. El Niño’s are usually back-loaded by nature. So it’s not a stretch to believe this will be much different. It's interesting how we perceive time since we think the second half of winter is after Christmas/once the daylight becomes longer, even though that isn't true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 2 minutes ago, bluewave said: Back-loaded winters have been the norm during the 2010’s. I guess the only winter we can truly call front-loaded was 10-11 with the 60” in spots before February. Even the La Niña last year had an historic late finish. El Niño’s are usually back-loaded by nature. So it’s not a stretch to believe this will be much different. Once the MJO travels through the bad phases into the favorable ones, it's game on. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 6 minutes ago, North and West said: It's interesting how we perceive time since we think the second half of winter is after Christmas/once the daylight becomes longer, even though that isn't true. Generally snowless Decembers don’t produce above normal snowfall winters here. I think prior to 2010 80% of winters where December saw less than one inch which DID finish above normal were El Niño winters. If you’re in a La Niña or neutral and you see no snow in December it’s generally a bad sign for the rest of the winter 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 Worth noting that despite this being a December thread, none of the (potential) sensible wx impact from any (potential) SSW event will occur until January. Friday's system is highly anomalous, as bluewave has pointed out, and its sensible weather will also not disappoint. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 2 minutes ago, purduewx80 said: Worth noting that despite this being a December thread, none of the (potential) sensible wx impact from any (potential) SSW event will occur until January. Friday's system is highly anomalous, as bluewave has pointed out, and its sensible weather will also not disappoint. Didn’t we have an SSW last February that led to the March fiascos here? It felt like the impacts from that were almost instantaneously felt 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IntenseBlizzard2014 Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 2 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Didn’t we have an SSW last February that led to the March fiascos here? It felt like the impacts from that were almost instantaneously felt It should be felt by the 31st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 13 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Didn’t we have an SSW last February that led to the March fiascos here? It felt like the impacts from that were almost instantaneously felt I don't recall. I'm no expert on the stratospheric stuff, but I know it takes time for the warming to result in the PV splitting. Mike Ventrice's outlook issued today suggests the transition occurs in the 2nd week of January and mid-month on is when all hell breaks loose. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 47 minutes ago, CIK62 said: So Judah Cohen is on a new tack. He was so sure of his snow-cover ideas. I hope he has it right now. All I get out of any article like this is that the next card out of the deck may be the 'A of Spades or the 2 of Clubs'. If you want to know for certain---Mark the Deck!. But noone knows what marks the atmosphere has put on itself this year or any year. I don't mind waiting, when I know what I am waiting for. Some meteorologist's or climatologist's prediction will be right for this season, and that person will be the new 'gura of the atmosphere', just like on the Business News channels. LoL. Just saw a diagram on another non weather site that showed a probable El Nino and warmer than average temps for most of the northern tier of the country. It sure didn't look at all like a snowy pattern, I think it was the Climate Prediction Center? Beneath it was two meteorologists calling for an El Nino and....a snowy pattern for the NYC region. Ok, then. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 22 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Didn’t we have an SSW last February that led to the March fiascos here? It felt like the impacts from that were almost instantaneously felt Yes What an epic March 20 minutes ago, IntenseBlizzard2014 said: It should be felt by the 31st. That's why all the models show a potential NYE storm 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 The pattern isn’t even going to verify that horrible. It may be snow hostile but it’s not one that’s going to lead to temps in the 60s or 70s. The only places that look like they’ll persistently or almost persistently torch the next 10-12 days are mostly in the southeast 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 2 hours ago, bluewave said: Interesting stats on how impressive this warm up will be and what followed in the past for the rest of the winter. https://mobile.twitter.com/N565UA/status/1074651605641900032 We're now in the midst of the largest CONUS warm up for this time of year in 56 yrs And, 2nd largest since at least 1950 GWs 51 Minus 50 CONUS TDDs MDA https://mobile.twitter.com/tcrawf_nh/status/1074675417133604864 This is fascinating, the biggest mid-late Dec warmups (week 51 minus week 50 GWHDDs) are associated with some absolutely epic winters, esp. 1962, 1977, 1978, 2002 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: That the weeklies head toward a classic December-February El Niño/EPO-/AO- 500 mb pattern is quite exciting. Below is a chart showing that pattern: Overall, things still remain on track for a snowy to very snowy winter in the region. Cities including Albany, Binghamton, Boston, Detroit, Harrisburg, Hartford, Islip, New York City, Newark, Philadelphia, Richmond, Scranton, and Washington should do well in terms of snowfall once the pattern develops and then potentially locks in. Everything is looking good from New Years on, no need for any more premature December panic. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 36 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Yes What an epic March That's why all the models show a potential NYE storm It's true purdue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 6 minutes ago, Snow88 said: It's true purdue By all the models, you mean the end of the operational GFS and the end of the ensemble means? The warming isn't even forecast to occur until the end of December. MJO will rule through early January. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 1 hour ago, purduewx80 said: I don't recall. I'm no expert on the stratospheric stuff, but I know it takes time for the warming to result in the PV splitting. Mike Ventrice's outlook issued today suggests the transition occurs in the 2nd week of January and mid-month on is when all hell breaks loose. Most forecasters are now banking on a snowy late Jan and February period, but that may just be due to the natural ENSO conditions and climo rather than any SSW event. Of course that's assuming the atmosphere responds to the Nino state and isn't MJO driven. There's definitely a chance all these cold, snowy forecasts completely bust. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gravity Wave Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 12z GFS retains the big New Years storm, this time it shows up as a GLC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
purduewx80 Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Most forecasters are now banking on a snowy late Jan and February period, but that may just be due to the natural ENSO conditions and climo rather than any SSW event. Of course that's assuming the atmosphere responds to the Nino state and isn't MJO driven. There's definitely a chance all these cold, snowy forecasts completely bust. yep, i'm on board the ~mid-jan thru mid-march train. i doubt the cold will bust, but there is some risk for suppression thru that period. i'd be more concerned if i were a new england snow weenie than a nyc weenie. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 12 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Most forecasters are now banking on a snowy late Jan and February period, but that may just be due to the natural ENSO conditions and climo rather than any SSW event. Of course that's assuming the atmosphere responds to the Nino state and isn't MJO driven. There's definitely a chance all these cold, snowy forecasts completely bust. Who is calling for a late January comeback? Everyone is calling for a change in early January. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 12 minutes ago, Gravity Wave said: 12z GFS retains the big New Years storm, this time it shows up as a GLC. Big signal but it's going to change a million times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 there have been some snowy February's during an el nino...some years really started the end of January...some el nino years had one good month and it usually was the end of January to the end of February...Feb 66, 83 and 2016 had above average temperatures...the rest were below average... winter...…..Feb Temp......snow...….6" plus snows...... 1925-26...…….29.2...…….26.3"...…….10.4"...12.0"...Feb... 1940-41...…….31.1...……...5.4"...…….18.1" in March... 1957-58...…….27.4...…….10.7"...…….7.9"...Feb...…….11.8" in March... 1963-64...…….32.9...…….14.1"...…….6.8"...Feb 1965-66...…….35.1...……...9.8"...…….6.3"...Feb...……...6.8" the end of January... 1982-83...…….36.4...…….21.5"...…….17.6"...Feb... 1986-87...…….33.2...……...7.0"...…….8.1" the end of January... 1994-95...…….31.6...…….11.6"...…….10.8"...Feb... 2002-03...…….30.1...…….26.1"...…….19.8"...Feb... 2009-10...…….33.1...…….36.9"...…….10.0"...20.9"...Feb... 2014-15...…….23.9...…….13.6"...…….9.8" the end of January... 2015-16...…….37.7...……...4.0"...…….27.5" the end of January... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 7 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Who is calling for a late January comeback? Everyone is calling for a change in early January. The unfavorable MJO driven pattern and weeks of lag following a SSW event would place the change by no earlier than mid Jan. Then you add in Nino forcing, climo, and everything aligns towards the Jan 20 to Feb (maybe March) period. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: The unfavorable MJO driven pattern and weeks of lag following a SSW event would place the change by no earlier than mid Jan. Then you add in Nino forcing, climo, and everything aligns towards the Jan 20 to Feb (maybe March) period. Mjo is moving along. It's not going to take until late January for the favorable phases. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 Isotherm alluded to changes that the models might go through and it's starting to happen. There is a chance of some snow on Xmas. The gefs is colder for the 27th storm and the nye storm is also colder and further south on the gefs. I think the models are having a tough time in regards to the ssw event. Fun times ahead 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 Para cookng up a beast for nye 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 25 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Para cookng up a beast for nye A beast rain storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 25 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Para cookng up a beast for nye what are you talking about ??? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted December 18, 2018 Share Posted December 18, 2018 25 minutes ago, Snow88 said: Para cookng up a beast for nye Way too far out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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