Scud Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 Ye ol' Gulf Low... Puppy friendly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 This year so recently the warmth has propagated east and is centered far enough east to become somewhat ambiguous if we are just using a snapshot in time to determine enso classification. However if we factor in the way this event originated and evolved along with the strength it bears much more resemblance to the modoki type then the classic type. Again I don't care what it's called. Others can have that fight. I'm just interested in what years evolved similar to this. Interestingly some of the most modoki years by the "newer" more rigid definition are years that weren't so good like 1994/5 and 2004/5 so I'm not sure saying this year isn't a modoki by that definition is even a bad thing! One other point...the Pacific is warmer all over right now and I'm not totally sure how that might impact the nino pattern. Would that warmer base state mute the enso forcing? Not sure. But that's a different debate. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 28, 2018 Author Share Posted November 28, 2018 I'm willing to bet that suppression will not be the worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: I'm willing to bet that suppression will not be the worry. I agree. I also think the 12z gfs showing the strong hp draped over the top is suspect as well. GEFS is similar to what the EPS showed last night with a departing high off the coast and another hp to the west. This looks very similar to the 0z EPS with a wave running the gauntlet: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 12 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: This one is screaming "watch me" IMO. Agreed. I'm posting more, so that should be y'alls indicator. 8 minutes ago, Scud said: Ye ol' Gulf Low... Puppy friendly... That's not a good map for us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 @Bob Chill yeah a friendly GEFS run. Good look for our storms and for avoiding a major torch. Can easily see how that quickly turns into an aleutian low and -EPO. Just got to avoid the TPV turning into a strongly +AO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 So many ifs with the D10 potential...but a lot of positives and potential right now... As @WxUSAF noted...the Dec 5th potential trended much better. FV3 has a similar idea to the CMC of after the first cutter we have several weaker waves instead of just another cutter or two. Models are going to have a tough time separating the weaker waves and keying in on any details until probably short range time... At least this solution would put us in the game for a light event or two... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 Amazed by the PNA region on models, this will be very hard to do in El Nino. Expect trend toward +PNA closer term. https://imgur.com/a/bKJvTGs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 @psuhoffman the basin wide warmth in the Pac is the one thing that I see as possibly causing ENSO to not act as it would normally. It basically spells out that any flow directly off the PAC will be a bad thing. Our cold source has to originate from the arctic and if the jet can't buckle as it normally would then the lower 48 is flooded with mild marine air. I will say a warmer than usual PAC with a EC trough will have a very juicy sub tropical component if it happens. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: @Bob Chill yeah a friendly GEFS run. Good look for our storms and for avoiding a major torch. Can easily see how that quickly turns into an aleutian low and -EPO. Just got to avoid the TPV turning into a strongly +AO. Yep, it's what we want to see. We can pretty much expect a relaxation of some sort in Dec and that's totally fine and completely normal. But the strength of the +EPO on the EPS and recent GEFS runs is something we really need to avoid. If a deep bn height anomaly sets up in the EPO region it's more likely than not to have some staying power. That's troubling because of what it does to north america as a whole. It takes time to recover back to a winter pattern even after the bad pattern starts to relax. Luckily it's so far out in time that we don't need to worry about it yet. Any trend away from the blue ball is a welcome sight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 4 minutes ago, H2O said: @psuhoffman the basin wide warmth in the Pac is the one thing that I see as possibly causing ENSO to not act as it would normally. It basically spells out that any flow directly off the PAC will be a bad thing. Our cold source has to originate from the arctic and if the jet can't buckle as it normally would then the lower 48 is flooded with mild marine air. I will say a warmer than usual PAC with a EC trough will have a very juicy sub tropical component if it happens. I could see that... there are no good analogs here with this type of sst configuration along with such a warm overall base state of the entire pacific. I could also see this as loading the pattern even more. When the jet crashes in off the pacific we go mild, but as you said it could also increase the STJ and so when we do get colder periods.... just have to hope we time them up. This is uncharted territory so we will just have to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AfewUniversesBelowNormal Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 40 minutes ago, H2O said: @psuhoffman the basin wide warmth in the Pac is the one thing that I see as possibly causing ENSO to not act as it would normally. It basically spells out that any flow directly off the PAC will be a bad thing. Our cold source has to originate from the arctic and if the jet can't buckle as it normally would then the lower 48 is flooded with mild marine air. I will say a warmer than usual PAC with a EC trough will have a very juicy sub tropical component if it happens. 34 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I could see that... there are no good analogs here with this type of sst configuration along with such a warm overall base state of the entire pacific. I could also see this as loading the pattern even more. When the jet crashes in off the pacific we go mild, but as you said it could also increase the STJ and so when we do get colder periods.... just have to hope we time them up. This is uncharted territory so we will just have to see. Oh great...one more thing to worry about...lol So basically, this unusual feature could either be a hero or a villain? (And the hero being only if it's timed with an EC trough?) Ugh...I felt better with it being an ENSO year, and with the factor that sunk other weak-to moderate Niño years you mentioned (a raging AO) seeming not to be a problem, a productive winter felt safe. But now we gotta play Russian roulette with this feature because we don't know how it's gonna affect things! Eh...I like certainty, lol) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 Euro has basically nothing for the 5th, but a pretty good look at D10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 Euro looks like a snow to rain deal for the day 10 thing going off of the 24 hour TT maps. Hard to tell off of that though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted November 28, 2018 Author Share Posted November 28, 2018 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Euro has basically nothing for the 5th, but a pretty good look at D10. I'll say. Much improved from 24 hours ago. I'd think at this range the last thing we want to do is wish the gfs storm north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Euro has basically nothing for the 5th, but a pretty good look at D10. I don't want to be a party pooper... but its rain for a good amount of us at 240 except the i-81 corridor and MD on the precip maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scud Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 7 minutes ago, Chris78 said: Euro looks like a snow to rain deal for the day 10 thing going off of the 24 hour TT maps. Hard to tell off of that though. A lot better than 00z run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 Just now, yoda said: I don't want to be a party pooper... but its rain for most at 240 except the i-81 corridor and MD on the precip maps Yeah I don’t doubt it, but it’s substantially improved from previous runs. If the 850 low was closer to the surface low, it would be snow. Might transfer to the coast after 240 too. It’s a good run at this range IMO. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 12 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Oh great...one more thing to worry about...lol So basically, this unusual feature could either be a hero or a villain? (And the hero being only if it's timed with an EC trough?) Ugh...I felt better with it being an ENSO year, and with the factor that sunk other weak-to moderate Niño years you mentioned (a raging AO) seeming not to be a problem, a productive winter felt safe. But now we gotta play Russian roulette with this feature because we don't know how it's gonna affect things! Eh...I like certainty, lol) There are better things to worry about than frozen water. You're taking up the wrong hobby if you like certainty! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Yeah I don’t doubt it, but it’s substantially improved from previous runs. If the 850 low was closer to the surface low, it would be snow. Might transfer to the coast after 240 too. It’s a good run at this range IMO. This is true... but I do see an 1037 HP way back in the Plains in N IA... banana high implications? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 8 minutes ago, yoda said: I don't want to be a party pooper... but its rain for most at 240 except the i-81 corridor on the precip maps 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Yeah I don’t doubt it, but it’s substantially improved from previous runs. If the 850 low was closer to the surface low, it would be snow. Might transfer to the coast after 240 too. It’s a good run at this range IMO. I've noticed the euro often runs a little warm at long range. Jan 2016 was a rainstorm at day 10 on the euro. Nov 15 was a rainstorm from range. It usually gets better with the thermals once in more reasonable leads. I'm way more interested in the h5 features and large scale synoptic setup at day 5-10 than I am the exact thermal profile. That said the track is a bit inside ideal but from day 10 that's not worth worrying about. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 1 minute ago, yoda said: This is true... but I do see an HP way back in the Plains... banana high implications? High isn’t as ideal as the GFS, but it’s better than what’s been suggested by the EPS and previous runs where the leading high is near Bermuda. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 Long track storm at the end of an anomalous cold period? Pretty big piece of energy coming into the west coast for models to track...This same piece is evident by hr 90 on the GFS. D10 Euro has "that look." In a perfect world we would get a nice 1-3/2-4 appetizer on roughly the 5th and then 4-6 days later we get a real taste of an el nino winter storm. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scud Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 4 minutes ago, poolz1 said: Long track storm at the end of an anomalous cold period? Pretty big piece of energy coming into the west coast for models to track...This same piece is evident by hr 90 on the GFS. D10 Euro has "that look." In a perfect world we would get a nice 1-3/2-4 appetizer on roughly the 5th and then 4-6 days later we get a real taste of an el nino winter storm. Sounds good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 Damn, y'all are just mass murdering puppies today. Poor things...they didnt do anything. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thanatos_I_Am Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 Quick question: On the FV3 for the Dec 8-9 threat, is the high pressure pushing down on the SLP the reason the precipitation shield is so small? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 44 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: There are better things to worry about than frozen water. You're taking up the wrong hobby if you like certainty! I have tried focusing on your frozen water analogy to ease my mild obsession...update: it didn't work I try and remind myself that all snow melts eventually...but my emotions won't catch up to the logic, haha But I digress...Learning all too well the uncertainty with this hobby. It's just...Ninos (weak-to mod, that is) work out the best...and looking at the awful failure the last two years have been, the thought of some unusual feature trying to screw us over for the entire winter is...yuck (especially now when we got a nino, low solar, favorable AO...the combination that always nets us at minimum a productive winter) On the flip side...having an unusual feature that ENHANCES our snow chances...the thought of that is epic! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 EPS more robust than euro op for the 5th (but still pretty flat) and has a nice setup for D10. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted November 28, 2018 Share Posted November 28, 2018 Damn it! Next person that says it... Are we in storm mode? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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