WinterWxLuvr Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 Time for the new thread. Good luck all! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 12-5-09 showing up on GFS ensemble analogs for D11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 That's a pretty strong wind and rain storm showing up offshore day 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 32 minutes ago, Amped said: That's a pretty strong wind and rain storm showing up offshore day 10. More like day 8. Looks like it stalls also. No cold air in sight though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 All good books have pictures. LR weather threads need h5 panels. This look right here will lead us to our next legit threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 That panel should even excite the folks in the SE sub-forum. HP above the lakes, low pressure near the Maritimes, and look at that vortex about to move into 50-50 position under a strong block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 1 minute ago, C.A.P.E. said: That panel should even excite the folks in the SE sub-forum. HP above the lakes, low pressure near the Maritimes, and look at that vortex about to move into 50-50 position under a strong block. That panel screams incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 Just now, psuhoffman said: That panel screams incoming. It certainly does. Dec 5th maybe.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 10 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: That panel should even excite the folks in the SE sub-forum. HP above the lakes, low pressure near the Maritimes, and look at that vortex about to move into 50-50 position under a strong block. If you wanted some more good vibes check out Don S outlook for the winter, very high snowfall prediction and cold ! I guess this should have gone into the winter thread, not sure though. I tend to think of Don as a sensible and conservative forecaster. So when he forecasts along these lines of snow and cold, well it adds confidence to me at least that the coming winter will indeed be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 May not be long before we see a some digital snow map porn in the 2 feet plus range with the look being advertised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 One blog i read isn't all that impressed with the -NAO and thinks the PV will consolidate again. Not saying a torch by any means but just saying it will be PAC dominated the first half of Dec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 46 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: That panel should even excite the folks in the SE sub-forum. HP above the lakes, low pressure near the Maritimes, and look at that vortex about to move into 50-50 position under a strong block. The upper air features look pretty good, but the temps don't cold enough (for down here), as the source region isn't all that frigid. The Fake Version 3 looks a little more promising, though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 36 minutes ago, H2O said: One blog i read isn't all that impressed with the -NAO and thinks the PV will consolidate again. Not saying a torch by any means but just saying it will be PAC dominated the first half of Dec. That may very well happen, and I made a post in the winter thread about the GEPS and CFS weeklies losing the -NAO by mid month. I think its pretty likely it stays negative until around then. Beyond that the pattern may become more Pac driven, but as long as the AO doesn't flip to raging positive we should be ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Climate175 Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 12z Euro showing a coastal around Nov 25th/26th albeit warm look right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 I think any storm before the 1st is likely to be a Rainer. Airmass looks like Pac garbage after Tday. Need a cutter or clipper to bring in some fresh cold air and set the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Climate175 Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: I think any storm before the 1st is likely to be a Rainer. Airmass looks like Pac garbage after Tday. Need a cutter or clipper to bring in some fresh cold air and set the table. That first week in December period looking sharp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 2 minutes ago, Cold Rain said: The upper air features look pretty good, but the temps don't cold enough (for down here), as the source region isn't all that frigid. The Fake Version 3 looks a little more promising, though. Climo is still a bit of a fight even for here in early December. Don't need super cold, just a supply of dry, cold air and a good storm track with that set up. Would have to be a legit low pressure though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 6 minutes ago, C.A.P.E. said: That may very well happen, and I made a post in the winter thread about the GEPS and CFS losing the -NAO by mid month. I think its pretty likely it stays negative until around then. Beyond that the pattern may become more Pac driven, but as long as the AO doesn't flip to raging positive we should be ok. Please no raging positive AO...The few weak-moderate El Niños that have failed here have been because of that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: All good books have pictures. LR weather threads need h5 panels. This look right here will lead us to our next legit threat. In all honesty, if this was going into January or February 1st, that’s a KU look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 Just now, WxUSAF said: In all honesty, if this was going into January or February 1st, that’s a KU look. Yeah its kind of a shame this is coming a month too soon. Whatever happens(or doesn't) its just fun as heck to have an advertised 500 mb pattern we can actually sink our teeth into heading into December for once. Dreams of a white Xmas are usually dead by now lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 6 hours ago, midatlanticweather said: DT was ALEETing already 1 hour ago, C.A.P.E. said: All good books have pictures. LR weather threads need h5 panels. This look right here will lead us to our next legit threat. El puerno Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 I've never seen the EPS and gefs in better agreement on day 15! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 41 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I've never seen the EPS and gefs in better agreement on day 15! Sometimes you get a big ol’ block and the models just know what to do with it. Hopefully this time that holds true... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 47 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I've never seen the EPS and gefs in better agreement on day 15! Ohhh boy...gonna be a long 15+ days, one way or the other! (And if it still looks like that a week from now...and then 10 days...yep, tracking parade.) Man, seems like we are so close! It's getting harder and harder to temper excitement, but I think I'll hold it in till the end of next week...still gotta watch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 5 minutes ago, mattie g said: Sometimes you get a big ol’ block and the models just know what to do with it. Hopefully this time that holds true... It’s true. Blocking patterns are stable and well forecast typically. Took a bit of time for the EPS to bite, but now it has it as last nights weeklies show. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 51 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I've never seen the EPS and gefs in better agreement on day 15! we have 15 days to meltdown and recover. BTW jb had the best forecast for this storm because he forecasted high snow amounts like he usually does. In this case..he was right lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 17 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: It’s true. Blocking patterns are stable and well forecast typically. Took a bit of time for the EPS to bite, but now it has it as last nights weeklies show. Yup. And the new weeklies have a -NAO straight through to the end. Man I hope that run is backed up by the next one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
schinz Posted November 16, 2018 Share Posted November 16, 2018 9 minutes ago, Ji said: we have 15 days to meltdown and recover. BTW jb had the best forecast for this storm because he forecasted high snow amounts like he usually does. In this case..he was right lol I do a lot of observing and not too much talking around here, but in this case it appeared to me that all of the evidence anyone needed was right in front of them. JB said 2 days before the storm to take the Euro snow totals and take 75% of them to be real close. He obviously took a lot more into account than just looking at the model but what I was amazed most at was how much "in denial" so many on here and in the media weather forecasting business were. Look at the model consensus for accumulating snows that we had, for multiple runs, with some minor fluctuations, particularly in the last 24 hours before the event. Yet, all I heard all over the place was "climo doesn't support this," "The ground is warm and it won't accumulate," "It's November, I will be happy with dusting," etc. etc. All along, we had great moderate consensus staring right at us. JMO, maybe the facts and model evaluation that everyone always does should not be outweighed by history, climo, and all those other factors that made a lot of people not see what was right in front of us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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