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Solak

Hurricane Michael

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Tornado watch, too. 

I'm usually not one to criticize, but not only are the forecasters playing catch-up in our area, but Forsyth County schools are open today as well. 

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14 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Gonna be bad if the HRRR is right....these gust are going to be more vertical and violent as hell....the thing is the band will be narrow you will have a few hrs of 30-40 mph gust then maybe 1-2 hrs of intense wind then 20-30 type gust on the backside of the band.....

How is it looking for our area? No one here is even thinking about it and I have a feeling that some people will be caught off guard. 

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Looks like the NWS RAH is willing to start baby stepping into this backend talk. Saying 55mph+ For now. Foreshadowing. 

 

Now to get the local tv mets to mention it. You know, so the public knows.

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13 minutes ago, cmh90 said:

How is it looking for our area? No one here is even thinking about it and I have a feeling that some people will be caught off guard. 

Once the wind band on the west side forms it will move east and cross over everyone in NC more or less.....not everyone will get 70-80 gust though I bet some do, widespread 55-65 thoughis starting to look likely.......pretty amazing weather event developing for NC if the hi res models play out, basically its the insane back side snow deform death band we always want to form, but with wind instead of snow lol.

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8 minutes ago, Blue_Ridge_Escarpment said:

Flooding unbelievable here this morning. Already over 6 inches of rain. Nice win for the FV3 GFS being furthest NW than other models. 

Thankfully no flooding here just over 3.50 inches. Brings my total to 112 inches for the year. 

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I think GSP, as usual, has done very well.  I totally get not sounding alarms based solely on models when it goes against everything their years of experience tells them will happen.  But yesterday morning GSP was already putting out watches and wording their discussions to include possibilities for higher winds even though they didn’t think it would verify.  

I think the large majority of the public would rather hear from Mets that we think this is what will happen, but models do show the possibility of it being worse and it’s extremely difficult to nail down.  At least the possibility exists and people can choose what they want.  But to blow it off until the event starts is why people shrug off storms.  Overhype a storm that doesn’t do as much as advertised then ignore one that does more than advertised.  Recipe for disaster in our social media world.  And I think because of social media more and more people are scared to admit they’re wrong or don’t know because of the backlash, but then it happens anyway.  

I definitely don’t envy their jobs and it’s easy to post on a board about these things but being more transparent would be appreciated by most I believe.  

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5 minutes ago, downeastnc said:

Once the wind band on the west side forms it will move east and cross over everyone in NC more or less.....not everyone will get 70-80 gust though I bet some do, widespread 55-65 thoughis starting to look likely.......pretty amazing weather event developing for NC if the hi res models play out, basically its the insane back side snow deform death band we always want to form, but with wind instead of snow lol.

Exactly how GSP described it yesterday, saying it’s much like a winter storm and terribly hard to predict.  Kudos GSP.   

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I'm seeing a lot of 850mb wind images being posted.  While some of those winds get mixed down to the surface, those are not the speeds we should be expecting at the 10m-level.  I'm also seeing several images with no legends or titles.  It's hard to tell what we're looking at in those cases.  Please be specific, guys.

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1 minute ago, calculus1 said:

I'm seeing a lot of 850mb wind images being posted.  While some of those winds get mixed down to the surface, those are not the speeds we should be expecting at the 10m-level.  I'm also seeing several images with no legends or titles.  It's hard to tell what we're looking at in those cases.  Please be specific, guys.

Here's 925mb winds.

 

925mb.JPG

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7 minutes ago, GunBlade said:

I’m kind of in a lull right now as the center is just south of Union NC. Expecting it to ramp back up though once that gets east and north of here. 

Just notified kids daycare closing at 12:30.  Schools were already closed in Union at least.  

HRRR shows lull for you well, you guys are the ones that will let us know if the HRRR is overdone or not cause if you are not getting hammered by 1-2pm its overdone

11am

hrrrq.thumb.png.8d7352d4d11ed895df47c7054da154c0.png

1 pm

hrrr1.thumb.png.025779e22c4eb6b031803625c1ba227b.png

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36 minutes ago, calculus1 said:

I'm seeing a lot of 850mb wind images being posted.  While some of those winds get mixed down to the surface, those are not the speeds we should be expecting at the 10m-level.  I'm also seeing several images with no legends or titles.  It's hard to tell what we're looking at in those cases.  Please be specific, guys.

Except in this case they are. That's exactly what HRRR shows.  850mb winds mixing ALL the way to the surface at near 90-100% effectiveness. Hence why its required to watch the 850mb winds.

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3 minutes ago, QC_Halo said:

Yes, definitely pretty quiet in Charlotte. 

 

Debating on picking kid up from school early...but feel like I might be to cautious.

Do your kids go to a private school? I was under the impression that CMS was closed today?

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