October 2018 Discussions & Observations Thread

[Will - Rutgers]

9 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

For our PA friends. Yikes.

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1514.html

 

Given the action already, this could be one of the most severe TOR outbreaks in the area in quite a while.  Wasn't expecting that today.

[donsutherland1]

3 hours ago, frd said:

Well, even though you said it is too early to tell,  it would seem if you enjoy snow then we better get come cool, wet weather ASAP. 

Of course on the flip side, maybe it is not possible any longer to depend on other winter seasons any longer as a forecast tools, because of global weather changes the last two decades.

 

The ongoing climate change likely introduces greater uncertainty. It's probably not a coincidence that the snowy 2013-14 winter occurred following a warm, dry second-half of October. Hopefully, over the next two months, the pieces will begin to fall into place for a snowy winter. We'll see what happens.

[495weatherguy]

8 minutes ago, donsutherland1 said:

The ongoing climate change likely introduces greater uncertainty. It's probably not a coincidence that the snowy 2013-14 winter occurred following a warm, dry second-half of October. Hopefully, over the next two months, the pieces will begin to fall into place for a snowy winter. We'll see what happens.

Perhaps our recent run of very snowy and cold winters is coming to an end

[psv88]

5 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

Perhaps our recent run of very snowy and cold winters is coming to an end

Doubt it. Winters have not really been cold. Last winter was about average or slightly above, with above average snowfall. 

I see no reason why snowy winters wont continue, especially east of the city. Warm SST are causing these snowstorms to just dump snow on the island. 

[SnoSki14]

6 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

Perhaps our recent run of very snowy and cold winters is coming to an end

There are no indications of that. If anything all signs point to another snowy winter. Maybe you're right about the cold though. 

The only way things go south is if we follow an 06/07 progression. 

[Gravity Wave]

14 minutes ago, Will - Rutgers said:

Given the action already, this could be one of the most severe TOR outbreaks in the area in quite a while.  Wasn't expecting that today.

There hasn't been an outbreak of any significance for PA in several years, so this looks to be the worst since the 2011 Super Outbreak (7 PA tornadoes, 2 of which were F2s) by default. Before that you'd have to go back to September 17 2004 (although that was just a lot of F1s), and then the back to back major outbreaks of May 31 and June 2, 1998 which were the worst since 1985.

[Drz1111]

Pittsburgh has a storm with 65+ DBZ returns going off and another supercell with a hook and strong low level rotation.  Jesus.

[BombsAway1288]

Any update on that Westchester storm that’s moved into Fairfield County, CT now? It had some pretty good rotation going on per radar

[Gravity Wave]

2 minutes ago, Drz1111 said:

Pittsburgh has a storm with 65+ DBZ returns going off and another supercell with a hook and strong low level rotation.  Jesus.

I count three tornadic cells strung out along I-80 right now, including one that's about to hit Du Bois.

[Rtd208]

Guys, there is now a separate thread for the severe threat.

 

[bluewave]

36 minutes ago, psv88 said:

Doubt it. Winters have not really been cold. Last winter was about average or slightly above, with above average snowfall. 

I see no reason why snowy winters wont continue, especially east of the city. Warm SST are causing these snowstorms to just dump snow on the island. 

Yeah, the last 3 winters featured record warmth and snowstorms. I will take the snowstorm quality of the last 3 seasons over the colder 13-14 and 14-15 winters. The only cold winter during the 2010's that had top caliber snowstorms for me was 10-11.

[donsutherland1]

36 minutes ago, 495weatherguy said:

Perhaps our recent run of very snowy and cold winters is coming to an end

Not necessarily. Indeed, with a weak El Niño, the odds may be somewhat tilted toward a snowy winter.

[495weatherguy]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

The ongoing climate change likely introduces greater uncertainty. It's probably not a coincidence that the snowy 2013-14 winter occurred following a warm, dry second-half of October. Hopefully, over the next two months, the pieces will begin to fall into place for a snowy winter. We'll see what happens.

Perhaps our recent run of very snowy and cold winters is coming to an end

[495weatherguy]

Ok, maybe it is time to amend my desire.   I will deal with snow as long as the cold is not deep and protracted.   Snow storms that melt away in 2/3 days are tolerable

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

Not necessarily. Indeed, with a weak El Niño, the odds may be somewhat tilted toward a snowy winter.

It's amazing how well we have done with snowfall under El Nino, La Nina, neutral, and record winter warmth. Only 2 below normal snowfall seasons in the new reduced sea ice era which began in summer and fall 2007. 

[frd]

16 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It's amazing how well we have done with snowfall under El Nino, La Nina, neutral, and record winter warmth. Only 2 below normal snowfall seasons in the new reduced sea ice era which began in summer and fall 2007. 

And even storms predicted to stay South still came North and nailed NYC   ( maybe one exception 09-10 ) and lets not forget all the recent thundersnow - crazy times.

You guys have done very well .  

[WarrenCtyWx]

2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

There are no indications of that. If anything all signs point to another snowy winter. Maybe you're right about the cold though. 

The only way things go south is if we follow an 06/07 progression. 

And that had a chilly September and October, ironically enough...

[donsutherland1]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

It's amazing how well we have done with snowfall under El Nino, La Nina, neutral, and record winter warmth. Only 2 below normal snowfall seasons in the new reduced sea ice era which began in summer and fall 2007. 

I agree. The increase in December-February median precipitation, slowing progression of systems based on research by Dr. Francis, among other variables may have contributed to this increased frequency in snowy winters. At some point, the ongoing warming may begin to offset the factors favoring increased snowfall.

[the_other_guy]

I went thru the Queens tornadoes a few years ago. Went right thru Bayside.

I have never seen a T storm with the intensity of the one pushing through western Westcheter right now.

The sky was lit up like noon, trees swaying, torrential rain. It lasted around 15 minutes.

Glad to see it go. Frankly, it was scary

[donsutherland1]

As of 10:51 PM, New York City had picked up 0.44" rain. Total precipitation for 2018 has climbed to 48.27". As a result, 2018 has now surpassed 1893, when 48.26" precipitation fell, as New York City's 45th wettest year on record.

[coastalplainsnowman]

Wow did that have a sudden onset or what here in SE Nassau.  It was calm with barely a mist, then a sudden strong gust that must have taken some weaker limbs down, followed by intense rain, the like of which I haven't seen since, well, August I guess.  Looking at the radar we took the tip of the spear.

[Rtd208]

Picked up 0.63" of rain from the line of storms that moved through.

[CIK62]

Next 8 days averaging 70degs., or about 10degs. AN.

[gravitylover]

2". 

[donsutherland1]

Yesterday's rainfall in New York City was 0.69". Total precipitation for 2018 is now 48.52". That ranks 2018 as the 43rd wettest year, just behind 1969 when 48.54" precipitation fell.

Bridgeport picked up 2.83".

[bluewave]

Endless summer pattern continues with 80 degree potential well into the 2nd week of October.

[dmillz25]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Endless summer pattern continues with 80 degree potential well into the 2nd week of October.

What’s making this happen? Is it the mjo? Or multiple tcs amplifying the pattern?

[bluewave]

9 minutes ago, dmillz25 said:

What’s making this happen? Is it the mjo? Or multiple tcs amplifying the pattern?

It's multiple factors. The record WAR since the February 80 degree day was only interrupted briefly by the strat warming in March and April. Since then, it has been there most of the time. Right now, the MJO going through phase 8-1 is enhancing the pattern. Those are some of the warmest phases for October.

[LurkerBoy]

Just now, bluewave said:

It's multiple factors. The record WAR since the February 80 degree day was only interrupted briefly by the strat warm in March and April. Since then, it has been there most of the time. Right now, the MJO going through phase 1-2 is enhancing the pattern. Those are some of the warmest phases for October.

Is this a harbinger of things to come? 

[SnoSki14]

10 minutes ago, bluewave said:

It's multiple factors. The record WAR since the February 80 degree day was only interrupted briefly by the strat warming in March and April. Since then, it has been there most of the time. Right now, the MJO going through phase 8-1 is enhancing the pattern. Those are some of the warmest phases for October.

Those same phases would have been ideal for winter. 

According to the snowier analogs, they had the 2nd half turning much colder. You have to imagine we see more of an El Nino influence soon over this unusual La Nina pattern.