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Tyler Penland

2018/2019 Mountains and Foothills Fall/Winter Thread

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7 hours ago, Tyler Penland said:

It's all alone but the 12z fv3 is a thing of beauty. Massive storm for the mountains.

Glad it's not gonna happen :)

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Mping reports showing ice occurring in Austin, TX.  A lot of times with these overrunning events I like to look downstream to see how moist the atmosphere is compared to what models showed.  Looking back at yesterdays 3km NAM runs, there was no real switch to snow for parts of TX, but on the most recent 6z run, there is a swath of 1"-2" across central TX.  With dew points low enough, I think we could see wetbulbing at 850mb and some snowflakes/ip mixing in tonight and into tomorrow as this overrunning precipitation makes it into WNC.  Similar setup on Sunday am but wedge does appear to recede.  Could be some surprises in store this weekend..

 

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Mping reports showing ice occurring in Austin, TX.  A lot of times with these overrunning events I like to look downstream to see how moist the atmosphere is compared to what models showed.  Looking back at yesterdays 3km NAM runs, there was no real switch to snow for parts of TX, but on the most recent 6z run, there is a swath of 1"-2" across central TX.  With dew points low enough, I think we could see wetbulbing at 850mb and some snowflakes/ip mixing in tonight and into tomorrow as this overrunning precipitation makes it into WNC.  Similar setup on Sunday am but wedge does appear to recede.  Could be some surprises in store this weekend..

 

 

Moisture didn’t quite make it into WNC, but saw some reports of sleet down around GSP.. tomorrow’s precip looks to be later and warmer as well on most recent Nam runs. Is it too much to ask for for two solid weeks off Gulf Lows and favorable blocking? Maybe the last half of Feb will bring the goods. I am at the point of finding my favorite EPS member with long range fantasy snow and just watching it unfold to remember what a snowstorm looks like on models.

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50 minutes ago, Hvward said:

 

Moisture didn’t quite make it into WNC, but saw some reports of sleet down around GSP.. tomorrow’s precip looks to be later and warmer as well on most recent Nam runs. Is it too much to ask for for two solid weeks off Gulf Lows and favorable blocking? Maybe the last half of Feb will bring the goods. I am at the point of finding my favorite EPS member with long range fantasy snow and just watching it unfold to remember what a snowstorm looks like on models.

You sure won't find it on the GFS. Spring is the word.  :)

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Back from a little winter hiatus and it doesn't look like much has changed except my skin color. Hillbilly white to Valentines Day red in 10 days. But it was nice to get away for a while. Thanks to you guys for not letting me miss out on a good snow. Maybe a flake or two next week?

 

You know property taxes are getting out of hand when Bob has to work at Ingles to pay them.

https://www.citizen-times.com/story/news/local/2019/02/13/answer-man-former-wlos-weatherman-bob-caldwell-works-ingles/2846194002/

 

 

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I know winter isn't over in the high country yet and we'll see what happens the rest of February but right now it isn't looking too promising.  If the next 2 weeks are anything like the last couple then it will be the 2nd February in a row with very little snow, even in the highest elevations.  Frustrating. 

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1 hour ago, Phelps said:

I know winter isn't over in the high country yet and we'll see what happens the rest of February but right now it isn't looking too promising.  If the next 2 weeks are anything like the last couple then it will be the 2nd February in a row with very little snow, even in the highest elevations.  Frustrating. 

KAVL won't see below freezing temps for the rest of February! Crazy!

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What a strange Winter. Normally if you told me that in mid-February my snow total for the season thus far would be 10 inches more that what Boston, MA has received, I would would say we're having a heck of a Winter. Not this year.

Oh well, let's get ready for another 7 days or so of not needed rain.

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1 hour ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

KAVL won't see below freezing temps for the rest of February! Crazy!

Yep but then expect the typical below freezing temps in April to put a hurt'n on all the trees and flowers.

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3 hours ago, Phelps said:

I know winter isn't over in the high country yet and we'll see what happens the rest of February but right now it isn't looking too promising.  If the next 2 weeks are anything like the last couple then it will be the 2nd February in a row with very little snow, even in the highest elevations.  Frustrating. 

No. Its virtually over at this point.

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53 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

Yeah we are far from over. This winter has been awful though but as some have mentioned this spring is probably going to be delayed. 

Delayed spring seems to be the new normal.  This is the 3rd consecutive February with way above average temperatures and flowering trees/bulbs/etc.  Only to be followed by a deadly freeze in March and April.  And now the mountains look like they will get 4-7" of RAIN in the next 10 days or so.  Incredible.

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Of course I get to move in to the new house in rain this weekend :thumbsdown:.  Going to try to get most furniture in today after we close at lunch so all it is Saturday and Sunday is mainly boxes

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